As the 2024-25 NHL season approaches its halfway mark (with puck-drop of the third game Thursday, Jan. 9; 656 GP), a look at some questions to be answered in the second half. But first, here’s a glance at some 2024-25 League trends:
Will The Gr8 Chase culminate in a record-setting performance in 2024-25?
Alex Ovechkin leads the League in goals-per-game (0.79; min. 2 GP) which has accelerated The Gr8 Chase. That is by far the highest goals-per-game rate in a season by a player age 39 or older (min. 20 GP) – only two players in that cohort have finished a season with a rate of 0.50 or better: Gordie Howe (0.58 in 1968-69 & 0.53 in 1967-68) and Teemu Selanne (0.50 in 2009-10).
* Now with 872 career goals, “The Great Eight” enters Wednesday’s national broadcast on Sportsnet one goal shy of his 20th career 20-goal season and needing 23 goals to break Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894, a mark “The Great One” has held for more than 30 years.
Who will emerge with the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy?
Leon Draisaitl (29-30—59 in 40 GP) has been the outright goals leader for nearly a month, since Dec. 16 and paces a group of 13 players with 20-plus goals. Only three previous Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy winners rank among the top 71 in goals: nine-time winner Alex Ovechkin (14th), along with 2019-20 co-winner David Pastrnak (35th) and 2022-23 recipient Connor McDavid (36th).
* 26% of players (min. 20 GP in 2024-25; 154 of 603) are on pace to set a new career high in goals (min. 10 goals as previous career best).
Will the reigning regular-season MVP lead the NHL in points?
Reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon (14-52—66 in 41 GP) has a seven-point advantage in the scoring race as he looks to add his first Art Ross Trophy to an already-decorated resume. MacKinnon, who trailed eventual-winner Nikita Kucherov by three points at the halfway mark last season, will have to fend off a group of 10 players on pace for 100-plus points this season – a group that includes three previous Art Ross Trophy winners (Leon Draisaitl: 2nd; Kucherov: 5th; and Connor McDavid: 6th) and four players who have never hit triple digits.
* 23% of players (min. 20 GP in 2024-25; 136 of 603) are on pace to set a new career high in points (min. 15 points as previous career best).
Who will make their case for the Vezina?
Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck leads all goaltenders with 25 wins this season and has five more victories than the next-closest netminder (Jacob Markstrom: 20). Hellebuyck, who won the Vezina Trophy in 2023-24 and 2019-20, can become the first U.S.-born goaltender in NHL history to capture the award three times (he would pass Tim Thomas and Frank Brimsek). Hellebuyck also paces the League in shutouts (5) and goals-against average (2.08), and ranks second in save percentage (.926), behind Maple Leafs netminder Anthony Stolarz (.927).
Who will win the Calder?
The intrigue of the Calder Memorial Trophy race is high entering the halfway mark of the season as Canadiensdefenseman Lane Hutson (3-27—30 in 40 GP), Flyers forward Matvei Michkov (12-17—29 in 39 GP) and Sharks No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini (13-15—28 in 31 GP) battle for the rookie scoring lead. That trio has made up the top three in rookie scoring every day for nearly a month (since Dec. 10), but Hutson took the lead Monday when he became the third defenseman in League history to be the first rookie to 30 points in a season, after Nicklas Lidstrom (1991-92) and Bobby Orr (1966-67).
Will we see a trio of 90-point defensemen?
Each of the top six and nine of the top 11 scoring-defensemen in the NHL are headed for the 4 Nations Face-Off in Montreal and Boston next month, with the list topped by Canadian Cale Makar (13-36—49 in 41 GP; COL) followed by Americans Zach Werenski (12-34—46 in 41 GP; CBJ) and Quinn Hughes (8-36—44 in 35 GP; VAN). Hughes, the reigning James Norris Memorial Trophy winner, and Makar, the 2021-22 Norris winner and finalist four seasons running, each had 90 points in 2023-24 and, along with Werenski are on track to hit the mark again in 2024-25. Only one season has had three 90-point defensemen (1990-91) and only four blueliners in League history have posted consecutive 90-point campaigns.
Looking ahead to the third quarter
The third quarter of the season is highlighted by the 4 Nations Face-Off (Feb. 12-20), which occurs after the third annual Hockey Day in Czechia (Jan. 10-11) and 25th annual Scotiabank Hockey Day in Canada (Jan. 18) but before the third annual Hockey Day in Finland (Feb. 28-March 1) and 2025 Navy Federal Credit Union NHL Stadium Series (March 1). The stretch also features a pair of 15-game days as well as Eric Staal getting his No. 12 retired by the Hurricanes on Jan. 12.
* A full suite of #NHLStats documents will be published ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off, including updates to the “By the Numbers” and player notes distributed when full rosters were announced Dec. 4 (Canada, Finland, Sweden and the United States).
Note: The Wild Card format was introduced in 2013-14 but not used for playoff seeding in 2019-20 or 2020-21, thus those two seasons are excluded in most notes below.
Which team(s) will make a late playoff push this season?
All 16 teams in the Eastern Conference either hold a playoff spot or sit within seven points of one, while in the Western Conference a group of five clubs outside the bracket are within eight points of the lowest-ranked team inside it. More on each conference below.
* Every day this week has ended with a different team occupying Wild Card 2 in the Eastern Conference: Columbus (Jan. 7), Montreal (Jan. 6), Pittsburgh (Jan. 5) and Ottawa (Dec. 14 – Jan. 4).
* In every season under the Wild Card format, at least one team has clinched a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth after sitting outside the bracket at the halfway mark – including multiple teams in eight of those nine campaigns. The Capitals (26-10-4, 56 points) were the only team to do so last season – clinching the last playoff spot in a dramatic sequence during the third-last day of the season – but now find themselves perched atop the Eastern Conference standings.
* Under the Wild Card format, six have reached the Stanley Cup Final after being outside the playoff bracket at the NHL’s halfway mark – including in 2015-16 when both the Penguins and Sharks did so.
Will another team overcome a big deficit to clinch?
In six of nine seasons under the Wild Card format, at least one team has overcome a standings deficit of eight or more points (at any stage) to secure a playoff spot. That list includes three of the six all-time instances of a team reaching the Stanley Cup Final after erasing that large of a deficit (2023-24 Oilers, 2022-23 Panthers, 2018-19 Blues, 1990-91 Penguins, 1967-68 Blues and 1958-59 Maple Leafs).
* Last season, three teams overcame a standings deficit of at least eight points (at any stage) to secure a playoff spot – tied for the most ever (Oilers: 10 points; Capitals and Predators: 8 points; also 3 in 1990-91).
How will things shake out in the East?
The gap at the top of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket is as tight as it as at the bottom, with ties in points for both first place (Capitals: 26-10-4, 56 points; Maple Leafs: 27-13-2, 56 points) and Wild Card 2 (Blue Jackets: 18-17-6, 42 points; Penguins: 17-17-8, 42 points).
* All eight teams outside the bracket in the East trail the lowest-ranked playoff team by seven points or less, the smallest gap between last place in a conference and a playoff spot since 2018-19 (halfway mark or later for seasons using Wild Card format). That season, the Western Conference had that small a gap between WildCard 2 and last place every day from Feb. 5-9, 2019 (5 or 6-point gap) and again Feb. 14, 2019 (7-point gap). Two teams that were on the outside looking in during those spans rallied to make the playoffs, including the Stanley Cup champion Blues (the Avalanche were the other club).
How will things shake out in the West?
The Western Conference is home to seven of the top 10 teams in the overall NHL standings and also has tight races at both the top and bottom, with only a one-point gap between the first-place Golden Knights (28-9-3, 59 points) and second-place Jets (28-12-2, 58 points) and another tie at the “playoff line” with the Canucks (18-12-9, 45 points) holding Wild Card 2 via tiebreaker with the Flames (19-14-7, 45 points).
* The conference’s two division winners from last season, Dallas and Vancouver, have both occupied Wild Card spots this week – wrapped up in a race that includes ties in points between Wild Card 1 and third place in each division, as well as a tie between Wild Card 2 and the first team outside the bracket.
Where do the 2025 Stanley Cup champions stand today?
As recent history has shown us, the team at the top of the standings after the regular season isn’t always the team that goes on to hoist the Stanley Cup. The Presidents’ Trophy winner has been determined within the final week of the season in three of the past four campaigns (2023-24, 2021-22 and 2020-21), but it has been more than a decade since the recipient captured the Cup (2012-13 Blackhawks; also the last time the No. 1 seed in the NHL reached the Stanley Cup Final).
A look at Stanley Cup winners since 2013-14 shows that only four first-place teams at the NHL halfway mark – be it the No. 1 seed in a division, conference or entire NHL – have gone on to win the Cup.
Will Canadian teams have a 7-in-16 shot at the Stanley Cup come April?
With Hockey Day in Canada just over one week away (Jan. 18), the standings ahead of the halfway mark show all seven Canadian clubs either holding a playoff spot or within one point of the bracket. The last time at least six Canadian teams made the playoffs was in 1992-93 (also the last time the Stanley Cup was won by a team based north of the 49th parallel) and only twice have seven made it (1985-86 & 1982-83). Six Canadian clubs also participated in the 2020 postseason, but only three made it past the Qualifiers.
