When forward Jacob Melanson debuted in a Kraken uniform on March 6, 2025, in Nashville, he became the franchise’s first draft choice to make his NHL debut while picked lower than in the third round. Fans will not be surprised to know the home-crowd favorite dished out four hits in his 13 shifts and nine-and-a-half minutes of time on ice that night.
As it turns out, sometimes later is not too late at all when applied to the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft. That’s upbeat news for Kraken fans. Along with two first-round picks (Nos. 7 and 25 overall), Seattle currently holds a second-round choice (No. 38) and five picks in rounds 4 to 7 that include selections at No. 99 and No. 103. That’s five potential prospects in roughly the top 100. The other three picks are sixth round (No. 166) and seventh round (Nos. 198 and 204).
For his part, Melanson played another 36 Kraken games this season, totaling a team-best 188 hits (more than five per game on average) and notching his first two NHL goals. His call-up coincided with the team’s best winning stretch of the season, with the young forward’s hard-nosed pace and physicality praised by Kraken head coach Lane Lambert and several players, notably Matty Beniers and Brandon Montour.
Also meaningful to the Kraken hockey operations group is Melanson’s stellar output with American Hockey League affiliate Coachella Valley, where he returned for this spring’s AHL postseason to provide a veteran presence for the league’s youngest team that nonetheless advanced to the third round. Melanson has been part of an AHL Western Conference champion as well. He will be competing to make the Kraken roster coming out of training camp this fall. His development is a bright light for all Kraken prospects picked in lower rounds.
How to ‘Set Apart’ Other NHL Teams
“The fourth to seventh rounds are kind of what makes a draft, setting some teams apart from each other,” said Ryan Jankowski, Kraken vice president and assistant general manager. “You’re always looking for either a solid player that's just going to find a way to play in the NHL or if you can find a diamond in the rough that becomes a star.”
Jankowski joined the Kraken last summer after leadership roles in amateur scouting and player development with Utah/Arizona and the New York Islanders. Taking a short break this week from long workdays at the NHL Combine in Buffalo, the assistant GM said what’s challenging about picking in the later rounds is that those players have “flaws or some concerns and that's the reason those players are in those rounds.”
“There has to be something that you see in them,” said Jankowski about players tabbed in later in the draft. “That's where the amateur scouting staff has done a nice job, whether it's [Jakub] Fibrgr as a seventh rounder [2024] who is working his way through and continuing to get better. Same for [Clarke] Caswell in the [2024] fifth round. He had a good year in Swift Current [Ontario Hockey League], then took another step this year with NCAA Denver ... Even though the odds are stacked against them, [lower-round picks] have a competitiveness, they have a drive and a determination that's going to help them get there.”
As for those steep odds, there are various projections of NHL Draft success per round in terms of how many players make it to the NHL. Let’s agree: making it to play a handful of NHL games is a dream realized for hundreds of prospects. As for evaluating a team’s ultimate success in the draft, a better marker is draft picks who play in 100-plus NHL games.
Using DobberHockey.com as an approximate example and one developed by a current NHL scout, 37 percent of first-round picks play more than 100 NHL games (probabilities are higher among the top five to 10 to 15). Second rounders calculate to 17 percent while third-round selections check in at 13.7. The remaining rounds: 10 percent for the fourth round, 7.5 percent for the fifth, 7.9 percent for the sixth, and 5.5 percent for the seventh and final round.
Breaking it down, the first round averages out to a bit more than one-third, the second and third rounds represent just under one-third, while the fourth to seventh rounds clock at just under one-third. A small slice, roughly two percent, can be attributed to undrafted players (such as former Kraken forward Tye Kartye logging 180 games with Seattle before being claimed on waivers to finish last season with the New York Rangers). It adds up to a significant portion of NHL players who make a difference on the ice deriving from the lower rounds.
“Every player is different on the development path and stages of their development,” said Cory Murphy, Kraken director of player development. “Our amateur scouts do an incredible job of identifying potential and seeing areas and traits in prospects they believe could translate into NHL players. Once those players are Kraken draft picks, it’s our job to maximize that potential and do everything we can to help them become NHL players.”
