Mailbag: Sabres, Islanders, Panthers set for push; Blues' trade options
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
What team out of the playoffs now is going to make the biggest second half playoff push? -- @johnfiorino97
I'll stay in the Eastern Conference for this one because I think we can all agree that the Colorado Avalanche are going to make a huge post-All-Star break push and be a Stanley Cup Playoff team. In fact, the team I worry about the most in the Western Conference is the Vegas Golden Knights. I'm not sold that they will make the playoffs with forward Mark Stone out of the lineup because of back surgery.
But like I said, let's stick in the Eastern Conference. It's the Buffalo Sabres, New York Islanders and Florida Panthers. I think two of the three make the playoffs with the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins dropping out. The Sabres, Panthers and Islanders are not on an even playing field right now; New York has played 54 games, Florida 53 games and Buffalo 50. Experience suggests it should be the Islanders and Panthers ahead of the Sabres, but those games in hand could make a big difference for Buffalo.
The Sabres have been good for a while now, going 19-9-4 since Nov. 22. In fact, they were 7-3-0 in their first 10 games before losing eight in a row in regulation from Nov. 4-19. The record before and after the streak suggests that really was just a slump, not indicative of the type of team they are this season.
If there is one team that I can see going on a huge run, it's the Panthers. It might have already started. They came back to defeat the Boston Bruins 4-3 in overtime before the All-Star break and came out of it with a 7-1 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday. Confidence matters and the Panthers should have a lot of it after those two victories.
Adding Bo Horvat is a huge factor for the Islanders, but so is their goaltending. Ilya Sorokin is one of the best in the NHL, certainly the best goalie of the five teams I mentioned here (Sabres, Panthers, Islanders, Capitals and Penguins).
If the Sabres trade for a defenseman, who do you think would be the best fit based on their needs as well as who is likely on the trade block? How much would they be willing to part with to make the trade happen? -- @RileysayHello2U
Ideally the Sabres acquire a defenseman that has some term left on his contract beyond this season who won't cost them a premium to get. They don't need to send away major future assets to address a position that looks pretty good for them now and in the future with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju. That's why I'm looking directly at the Montreal Canadiens and defenseman Joel Edmundson. He's 29, so still very much in his prime. He's signed through next season with a manageable $3.5 million NHL salary cap charge. He has played 75 postseason games, won the Stanley Cup with the Blues in 2019 and reached the 2021 Stanley Cup Final with the Canadiens. He would bring experience, size (6-foot-5, 221 pounds) and physicality to Buffalo's defense corps and could play in the top four or on the third defense pair. He'd certainly play on their penalty kill. The Sabres might have to trade their first-round pick to get Edmundson, but maybe they can get away with giving away one of their three second-round picks. Either way, they'd get him for the potential of two playoff runs and that's added value.
What teams do you think Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko will be most likely traded to by the deadline? And feel free to throw in what the Blues might get in return if you like. -- @armcontrolmick
O'Reilly makes sense for his first team, the Avalanche, who need a second-line center who can help with face-offs in the defensive zone, play on the second power-play unit and kill penalties. Tarasenko makes sense for the New York Rangers, who need a productive top-six right wing so they can keep "The Kid Line" of
Alexis Lafreniere
, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko together and move Barclay Goodrow down to play center on the fourth line.
Of course, this is assuming that the St. Louis Blues will be sellers and O'Reilly and Tarasenko, each a pending unrestricted free agent, will be moved. There is still a chance both re-sign and though that wouldn't be the worst thing for the Blues, I also think it might be time for them to go in a different direction to infuse some youth to build around forwards Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. There are plenty of veterans signed long term (defensemen Colton Parayko, Torey Krug, Justin Faulk and Nick Leddy; forwards Brayden Schenn, Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich). I'm not sure the Blues want to tie themselves to long-term contracts with O'Reilly and Tarasenko too, but this changes if they can get them to sign for the short term, say three years each. Then it might make sense because it keeps the window open with the veteran players already signed as well. O'Reilly and Tarasenko are still impact players, but Tarasenko is 31 and O'Reilly turned 32 on Tuesday. I think trading them depends on what they'd be willing to take from the Blues, who would have to weigh that against the potential of getting a first-round pick or a top prospect, because that should be the ask.
CBJ are in last place with a ton of injuries this year. Give us some kind words of encouragement. -- @BlueJacketdad
You're dead on about the injuries. It's been brutal for the Columbus Blue Jackets, particularly losing defenseman Zach Werenski (torn labrum), and forwards Jakub Voracek (concussion) and Gustav Nyquist (shoulder) for the season. There are more injuries, but that's three impact players unavailable. Werenski is arguably their best player and he was limited to 13 games this season. Voracek played 11. Nyquist got in 48, but he's most likely done for the season.
But you asked for kind words of encouragement, so here we go:
Johnny Gaudreau looks like he fits in well. That's huge for the Blue Jackets. They got the big free agent prize and he's working out. The forward has 49 points (14 goals, 35 assists) in 51 games and represented Columbus well at the 2023 Honda NHL All-Star Weekend.
Patrik Laine is starting to find some consistency in his game, staying healthy too. The forward can and should be a 40-goal scorer. He can still be that for Columbus.
Werenski will return next season. That's obviously huge.
Kent Johnson is 20 years old, playing regularly and producing. The forward has 24 points (10 goals, 14 assists) in 48 games. He's going to be an impact player.
The Blue Jackets currently have six picks in the first four rounds of the 2023 NHL Draft and more could be coming depending on the return packages if they trade defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov and potentially Nyquist if he could be healthy for the start of the playoffs. They still have a chance to be a team on the rise in the Metropolitan Division starting next season, when the Penguins and Capitals could be going in the other direction.
And there are your Blue Jackets words of encouragement.
When Luke Hughes inevitably comes to New Jersey at the end of the season do you see him having a big impact like Cale Makar did when he came in? -- @sharrington2000
He has the talent to make it happen and I think he will if given a chance. Hughes' skill, skating and his ability to impact a game on the offensive end is similar to that of Makar. But I also think expectations should be tame, not crazy high, assuming Hughes turns pro once his sophomore season at the University of Michigan is over. Remember, what Makar did is not normal. He turned pro out of the University of Massachusetts following his sophomore season in 2019. He made his NHL debut in the 2019 playoffs, scored in his first game and finished with six points (one goal, five assists) in 10 games. He has since won the Calder Trophy voted as the top rookie in the NHL, the Stanley Cup, the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs and Norris Trophy voted as best defenseman.
The Devils know Hughes has a chance to make an instant impact if he turns pro this season. They'll let that happen organically. If he does, he'll play, likely in Brendan Smith's spot unless there is an injury. But that's not a given, especially in the playoffs. Hughes already has more skill than Smith probably ever had, but Smith knows how to play NHL playoff hockey. He plays with an edge, understands the limitations of time and space, the physicality of the game and how to be effective without being flashy. All of that matters. I'm not saying Hughes won't play, but I think Devils fans need to know it's not a given and he's not Makar, at least not yet.
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