State Your Case: Who wins Maple Leafs-Lightning playoff series?

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning will face each other in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That much we know.

It will be the second straight season the Atlantic Division teams will play in the Eastern Conference First Round. Tampa Bay won in seven games last season en route to reaching the Stanley Cup Final for the third straight season.
In that series, the Maple Leafs led 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 before losing Game 6 in Tampa and Game 7 at home. It was the fifth straight season in which the Maple Leafs have lost a series-deciding, all-or-nothing game in the first round. In fact, the Lightning have been to the Cup Final three straight seasons, winning twice (2020, 2021), but the Maple Leafs haven't won a playoff series since 2004.
But Toronto appears to be ready this season, not only having another strong regular season to lock up second place in the division, but also acquiring a Stanley Cup champion in forward Ryan O'Reilly in a trade with the St. Louis Blues on Feb. 17.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency this season and enters its home game against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, TVAS, TSN4, SN NOW) having lost three in a row.
So, will things be different when the playoffs roll around? Will Toronto finally win a series? Or will the Lightning send the Maple Leafs home early again?

That is the question posed to staff writers Nicholas J. Cotsonika and Dan Rosen in this week's State Your Case.
Cotsonika:Toronto, finally, will win a playoff series for the first time since 2004. The Maple Leafs were oh, so close against the Lightning in the Eastern Conference First Round last year, taking a 3-2 series lead, then losing 4-3 in overtime on the road in Game 6 and 2-1 at home in Game 7. This season they're a little better, and the Lightning are a little more vulnerable. The biggest reason is the addition of O'Reilly. He won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player of the playoffs when the Blues won the Cup in 2019, and he's one of the top two-way centers in the game. With O'Reilly joining Auston Matthews and John Tavares, the Maple Leafs match up well against Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli down the middle.
Rosen: Do you want me to go straight to the goaltending segment of this debate, which is no contest, really? Or should I dip my virtual ink in other areas to showcase why the Lightning will win this series against the Maple Leafs? Let's save the best (goaltending) for last. Winning pedigree matters and the Lightning have it in spades. As they have shown time and again, including against the Maple Leafs last season, they're almost at their best when they're on the ropes. They're comfortable playing any game. I don't think we can say the same for the Maple Leafs. The Lightning are comfortable starting a playoff series on the road, as they will in this round. They are just comfortable in who they are and they understand how to accomplish what they want to accomplish. The Maple Leafs can't be and don't. And, perhaps most important (before the decided edge in goaltending with Andrei Vasilevskiy) is Tampa Bay's advantage on the back end. The Lightning can have defensemen Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak on three separate pairs, giving them an advantage in size, skating and speed no matter what defense pair is on the ice. In fact, of all the star power that will be on the ice, including Stamkos, Point, Nikita Kucherov, Matthews, Tavares, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander, I'd argue Hedman is the best player in the series other than Vasilevskiy, and Sergachev might be in the top five. Toronto doesn't have a defenseman in the top five.
Cotsonika:I knew you'd go to the goaltending, Dan. I'm glad you took the bait. Obviously I have tremendous respect for Vasilevskiy. Who doesn't? He could be the difference in this series, for sure. But look at the numbers this season: Vasilevskiy is 34-21-4 with a 2.63 goals-against average, .916 save percentage and four shutouts in 59 games; Ilya Samsonov is 27-10-5 with a 2.33 GAA, a .919 save percentage and four shutouts in 42 games. Maybe goaltending won't be the Achilles heel for Toronto many think it will be. I can't argue about the Lightning's winning pedigree, or about their corps of defensemen. But all that winning does take a toll, doesn't it? How much gas do the Lightning have left after playing 12 playoff series the past three seasons? That defense corps has logged a lot of hard minutes, and the Maple Leafs, with a deep, skilled forward group that loves to hang onto the puck, are going to make them play some more. No one is invincible. Even Vasilevskiy and the Lightning are human.
Rosen: I don't think goaltending is going to be the Maple Leafs' Achilles heel. Samsonov gives Toronto its best chance to win. But he isn't as good or near as battle tested as Vasilevskiy. So he might have a good series, but Vasilevskiy has a much better chance of having a great series. And that will be the reason why Tampa Bay will win it. You brought up some key numbers for this season and Samsonov has been without question solid, as has Vasilevskiy. But what about these numbers: 30-16, 2.21 GAA, .929 save percentage, six shutouts, 46 games played. That's what Vasilevskiy has done in the playoffs the past two seasons. Samsonov: 1-6, 2.98 GAA, .907 save percentage, zero shutouts, eight games played. We're talking apples and oranges when it comes to being a goalie in a pressure spot, when it really counts. And to your other point about winning taking a toll and how much gas the Lightning have left, I don't think that argument holds as much weight as it used to. The game in the regular season is much faster but not near as physical. The Lightning will have plenty of gas for this series. They'll be ready, and they'll have the better goalie, regardless of how good Samsonov has been this season. Their forwards match up with Toronto's and their defensemen are better. Tampa Bay in six.