3 Keys: Islanders at Lightning, Game 1 of Semifinals

Islanders at Lightning
3 p.m. ET; NBC, CBC, SN, TVAS
Stanley Cup Semifinals, Game 1

The New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning will play Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Semifinals at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, on Sunday.
The Islanders and Lightning are playing each other in the third round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second straight season. Tampa Bay eliminated New York in the Eastern Conference Final in six games last season before defeating the Dallas Stars in the Stanley Cup Final.
New York has 17 players expected to be in the lineup for Game 1 who played in the series against the Lightning last season. Tampa Bay has 16.
"They have a lot of guys that were there last year, same with us, so in that sense we do know what to expect," Lightning forward Yanni Gourde said. "But we haven't played them this year, so it's still kind of new. We're very excited for this challenge."
The Lightning advanced from the Discover Central Division by defeating the Florida Panthers in six games in the first round and the Carolina Hurricanes in five games in the second round. Tampa Bay is in the third round of the playoffs for the fifth time in the past seven seasons.
The Islanders advanced from the MassMutual East Division by defeating the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games the first round and the Boston Bruins in six games in the second round. New York won the final three games of each best-of-7 series.
"We're a confident group right now and our game is where it has to be," Islanders center Casey Cizikas said. "We're going to play hard, we're going to play our style and they're going to have to beat us. We're not going to beat ourselves."
Teams that win Game 1 are 497-226 (68.7 percent) winning a best-of-7 series, including 8-4 this season.
Here are 3 keys for Game 1:

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1. New York's discipline

The Islanders were the least penalized team in the NHL in the regular season (153 penalties taken) and that discipline has carried into the playoffs. They're averaging the fewest penalty minutes (7:00) and shorthanded minutes (3:13) per game of the four teams remaining.
However, their penalty kill has not been good (61.5 percent; 16-for-26), and they're about to go up against a Lightning power play that is scoring at an NHL-high 41.7 percent (15-for-36) in the playoffs.
"If we can get it to the level where our power play and our penalty kill can sort of offset each other a little bit, then our 5-on-5 play will take over," Islanders coach Barry Trotz said. "It's just limit their ability to get three, four, five (power-play opportunities) a game and that can be done many ways. … You can't take useless penalties, penalties 200 feet from your net, high-sticking type of penalties, tripping penalties. Those you just can't take."

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2. Tampa Bay's patience

The Islanders are known for frustrating their opponents and waiting for them to make mistakes, but the Lightning can't get caught doing that.
The Lightning have proven they can play with poise in tight games since the playoffs last season and were 12-1 in games decided by one goal last postseason. They were 12-2-3 in the regular season and are 3-2 in one-goal games in these playoffs. They have won 44 of their past 45 combined regular-season and playoff games they have led going into the third period.
"For so long our group was always known as the run and gun Tampa Bay Lightning," captain Steven Stamkos said. "It was fun to watch and fun to play at times but it didn't necessarily translate to the ultimate goal of winning the Stanley Cup. We've adjusted. … I think we're more comfortable playing those tighter games and that's what it's going to be."

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3. Depth scoring

Each team has relied on its bottom six forwards to chip in offensively, and getting contributions from them could be the difference in Game 1.
It was for Tampa Bay in Game 1 against Carolina, when third-line forward Barclay Goodrow's goal in the third period was the difference in a 2-1 win, and in Games 4 (Tyler Johnson) and 5 (Ross Colton), when a player on the fourth line scored in each win.
The Islanders' leading goal-scorer in the playoffs is forward Kyle Palmieri with seven. Their leading scorer is center Jean-Gabriel Pageau with 13 points (three goals, 10 assists). They're on the third line with Travis Zajac, who scored the first goal in a 6-2 win against the Bruins in Game 6.

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Islanders projected lineup

Leo Komarov -- Mathew Barzal -- Jordan Eberle
Anthony Beauvillier -- Brock Nelson -- Josh Bailey
Kyle Palmieri -- Jean-Gabriel Pageau -- Travis Zajac
Matt Martin -- Casey Cizikas -- Cal Clutterbuck
Adam Pelech -- Ryan Pulock
Nick Leddy -- Scott Mayfield
Andy Greene -- Noah Dobson
Semyon Varlamov
Ilya Sorokin
Scratched: Cole Bardreau, Kieffer Bellows, Austin Czarnik, Anatoli Golyshev, Simon Holmstrom, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Dmytro Timashov, Sebastian Aho, Samuel Bolduc, Braydon Coburn, Thomas Hickey, Grant Hutton, Bode Wilde, Kenneth Appleby, Cory Schneider
Injured:Michael Dal Colle (undisclosed), Oliver Wahlstrom (lower body)

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Lightning projected lineup

Ondrej Palat -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Alex Killorn -- Anthony Cirelli -- Steven Stamkos
Yanni Gourde -- Barclay Goodrow -- Blake Coleman
Ross Colton -- Tyler Johnson -- Pat Maroon
Victor Hedman -- Jan Rutta
Ryan McDonagh -- Erik Cernak
Mikhail Sergachev -- David Savard
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Curtis McElhinney
Scratched:Alex Barré-Boulet, Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott, Fredrik Claesson, Cal Foote, Mathieu Joseph, Luke Schenn, Ben Thomas, Christopher Gibson
Injured:None

Status report

Wahlstrom skated at practice Saturday. Trotz said the forward is close to being available. … The Lightning used the same lines and defense pairs in practice Saturday they used in Games 4 and 5 against the Hurricanes. … The Islanders are expected to use the same 18 skaters they used for all six games against the Bruins.