NHL EDGE stats: Fowler’s early case for Calder Trophy

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at three underlying metrics storylines behind Montreal Canadiens rookie goalie Jacob Fowler’s rapid rise this season.

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Jacob Fowler is riding a six-game winning streak for the Montreal Canadiens, and the rookie goalie’s advanced metrics have made him one of the early contenders for the Calder Trophy.

The 21-year-old, who is 6-1-0 to start the season, is among the NHL goalie leaders in wins (tied for fifth), goals-against average (1.54; fourth), save percentage (.942; second) and shutouts (two; tied for second behind Jake Oettinger’s three). Fowler, who played 17 NHL games last season for Montreal (9-6-2 record, 2.43 goals-against average, .908 save percentage, one shutout), remains rookie eligible and has been one of the League's most impressive young players this season.

Fowler joined Rogie Vachon (1966-67) and Carey Price (2007-08) as the only goalies in Canadiens history to win six straight games at 21 years old or younger. The NHL record for consecutive wins by a rookie goalie is 12 (Ross Brooks from Dec. 30, 1973 to Feb. 28, 1974).

The short list of this year's Calder contenders includes Fowler and the following skaters: Toronto Maple Leafs forward Gavin McKenna (No. 1 pick in 2026 NHL Draft; 11 points in 15 games this season), San Jose Sharks forward Ivar Stenberg (No. 2 pick in 2026 draft; nine points in 14 games), Boston Bruins forward James Hagens (10 points in 14 games) and Washington Capitals defenseman Cole Hutson (No. 43 pick in 2024 NHL Draft; seven points in 12 games). Fowler has a chance to become the first goalie to win the Calder Trophy since Steve Mason of the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2009.

Here are three underlying metrics behind Fowler’s early case for the Calder Trophy:

1. 5-on-5 prowess

Fowler’s 5-on-5 save percentage (.939) is tied for fourth in the NHL this season. This has further strengthened Montreal, which is a strong puck-possession team; the Canadiens rank sixth in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (54.8 percent) this season. Even through dealing with early season injuries to captain Nick Suzuki and another young forward in Ivan Demidov, Montreal still boasts an elite young core of forwards Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, defenseman Lane Hutson and the goalie tandem of Fowler and Jakub Dobes.

Fowler's rapid rise comes just months after Dobes' postseason heroics for the Canadiens; Dobes led Montreal to the Eastern Conference Final, winning two Game 7 wins on the road during the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. During that postseason, Dobes ranked second in quality starts (11; starts with greater than .900 save percentage) behind Carter Hart of the Vegas Golden Knights (13), and Dobes' 5-on-5 save percentage in the postseason (.915) ranked fifth among goalies who played multiple rounds. But, this regular season, Dobes' 5-on-5 save percentage (.876) ranks below the NHL average (.905).

2. Save percentages by location

Fowler leads the NHL in mid-range save percentage (.982) this season. He also ranks fourth in high-danger save percentage (.885) among goalies who have played at least six games. Fowler had 18 high-danger saves against the St. Louis Blues on Oct. 27, the most by a goalie in a single game this season. He stopped each of the 10 mid-range shots faced in that same game; his 28 saves from high-danger and mid-range zones combined was also the most by a goalie in a single game this season.

Dobes, meanwhile, ranks below the NHL averages in save percentages on shots from mid-range (.804; League average: .882) and high-danger (.750; League average: .809) zones this season.

Fowler has had quality starts in four of his seven games this season, including three straight. Fowler’s overall save total against the Blues on Oct. 27 (46) was the highest by any goalie in the NHL this season. He also had the most saves in a shutout by a Canadiens rookie goalie in history (since shots on goal began being officially tracked in 1955-56).

3. Saves Above Projected

NHL EDGE IQ insight 📊: “Saves Above Projected” is the total shots on goal a goalie faces minus the sum of the Projected Goal Rate on all of his inferenced shot attempts faced (excluding attempts taken greater than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against empty net). A positive number for “Saves Above Projected” means a goalie is making more saves than the average goalie would given the quality of shots on goal faced. Among goalies to face at least 150 shots on goal this season, Fowler ranks second in the League in Saves Above Projected (plus-8.76) behind Oettinger (plus-10.86). 

The Canadiens have outscored their opponents 17-11 with Fowler in net this season. But while his goal differential (plus-6) is much better than Dobes’ differential (minus-4; 20 goals for, 24 goals against), it ranks far from the League leader (Pyotr Kochetkov of Carolina Hurricanes, plus-20).

Fowler’s 2.38 of goal support per game ranks 39th of the 43 goalies to play at least six games this season, indicating the Canadiens could still have more to give once Suzuki and Demidov return. Another testament to Fowler's individual play is that he has excelled when his opponents have been on the power play; he has a .950 power-play save percentage this season, which ranks fourth in the NHL.

Montreal, which had the Calder Trophy winner in 2024 (Hutson) and runner-up in 2025 (Demidov), is equipped for another deep postseason run this season. With Fowler having a high ceiling this season in the Calder race and also in the years to come with potential Vezina Trophy consideration if/when he becomes the Canadiens’ full-time starter, Montreal’s young core continues to blossom and could lead them to even greater heights, whether the Atlantic Division title and/or the Stanley Cup Final.