NHL EDGE stats: Dobes’ case for Conn Smythe Trophy in 2026

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide the underlying metrics behind Jakub Dobes of the Montreal Canadiens.

Jakub Dobes is having a brilliant Stanley Cup Playoffs for the Montreal Canadiens, and his strong advanced metrics have helped him emerge as a dark horse Conn Smythe Trophy candidate.

Dobes is 9-6 with a .911 save percentage in 15 games this postseason, including two Game 7 victories to become the second rookie goalie in NHL history with multiple Game 7 wins on the road in one postseason, joining Ken Dryden (1971).

Dobes has been particularly impressive following a loss this postseason, going 6-0 with a .942 save percentage and 1.77 goals-against average. By comparison, Dobes, who led NHL rookie goalies in wins (29 in 43 games) this season, was 8-4-1 following a loss during the regular season but had a .891 save percentage and 3.24 goals-against average in those games.

The highlight of Dobes’ surprising run this postseason was his epic performance on the road in Game 7 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference First Round. Dobes stopped 28 of 29 shots faced as Montreal defeated Tampa Bay 2-1 despite being outshot 29-9, the lowest shots on goal total in NHL history for a team that won a single playoff game. Dobes became the fifth rookie goaltender in Canadiens history to win a Game 7 (others: Jacques Plante, Dryden, Patrick Roy, Carey Price).

The 24-year-old stopped 37 of 39 shots in Game 7 against the Buffalo Sabres in the Second Round and has a .956 save percentage in two Game 7s in this postseason (stopped a combined 65 of 68 shots faced). Dobes became the third goaltender in franchise history with two Game 7 wins in a single postseason (Jaroslav Halak in 2010 & Ken Dryden in 1971), and the first rookie goalie to achieve the feat since Jordan Binnington with the St. Louis Blues in 2019 en route to winning the Stanley Cup. Dobes, who leads the postseason in road wins (7-2), joined Ron Hextall (1987) and Binnington (2019) as the only rookie goalies in NHL history to win seven of their first nine road games in one postseason.

Dobes is the second Canadiens rookie goalie over the past 40 years (since 1986) to win at least six games in a single postseason, joining Patrick Roy (15 in 1986). To this point in the postseason, Dobes has arguably been Montreal’s most valuable player.

Since the Conn Smythe Trophy originated in 1965, Roy and Ken Dryden (1971) both won the award as rookies with the Canadiens. The only two other rookie goalies to ever win Conn Smythe were Cam Ward (with Carolina Hurricanes in 2006) and Hextall (with Philadelphia Flyers in 1987). Since Roy won his second of two Conn Smythe trophies with the Canadiens in 1993, seven other NHL goalies have won playoff MVP (most recently Andrei Vasilevskiy of Lightning in 2021).

Here are three underlying reasons Dobes is a dark horse candidate for the Conn Smythe:

1. Save percentage in close games

Dobes faced 24 shots in the third period or overtime in his two Game 7s and stopped 23 of them. Dobes has a .897 save percentage in 5-on-5 close situations, meaning when a game is tied in the first or second period or within one goal in the third period. The Canadiens-Lightning series was particularly close; it was the third series in NHL playoff history to have seven straight one-goal games (others were New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals in 2015, Boston Bruins vs. Capitals in 2012). The score was either tied or within a one-goal margin for 98.7 percent of the Canadiens-Lightning series, the second-highest percentage in a seven-game series behind the Capitals-Bruins series in 2012 (99.4).

Dobes leads the NHL in third period save percentage (.943; 116 saves on 123 shots faced) on the road, among goalies who have played at least five games.

2. Saves from all regions

Dobes leads the entire NHL in saves (388), high-danger saves (94), midrange saves (136) and ranks third in long-range saves (69). Dobes leads the League in midrange save percentage (.919), among goalies who have played at least five games this postseason, He also ranks in the top 10 in high-danger save percentage (.847; .820 in regular season) and long-range save percentage (.972).

3. 5-on-5 metrics

Dobes, who leads the NHL in 5-on-5 shots against (311), has a .923 save percentage at 5-on-5 this postseason, sixth among goalies who have played multiple games. His 5-on-5 save percentage has been slightly stronger on the road (.923 in nine games; second among goalies with four games played) compared to at home (.922 in six games; sixth). Dobes is tied with Carter Hart of the Vegas Golden Knights in wins (nine) and quality starts (nine; greater than .900 save percentage) this postseason. All all strengths, Dobes has a .923 save percentage on the road (second among goalies with four games played) compared to .889 at home (sixth).

In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage in the series against Buffalo, the Sabres (53.7) had the edge on the Canadiens (46.3), but Montreal led in 5-on-5 goals (16-13), including 11-8 on the road. 

Dobes stopped 25 of 27 shots (.926 save percentage) he faced in Montreal's 6-2 win in Game 1 against the Carolina Hurricanes and is 4-0 with a .923 save percentage and 2.50 goals-against average against the Hurricanes this season, including the postseason. He stopped 41 of 43 shots (.953 save percentage) he faced in a 5-2 win on March 19 and 34 of 35 shots (.971) in a 3-1 victory on March 29.

The Canadiens have won six of their past seven games against Carolina dating back to last season and have outscored them 31-16 over that span. The Hurricanes' last two home losses over their past 11 games have come against Dobes and three of their last five losses over their past 24 games have come against the rookie goalie.