Mailbag: Potential 1st-round opponents for Capitals; Hart, Calder picks

Here is the April 2 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X and Bluesky. Send your questions to @drosennhl on X and @drosennhl.bsky.social on Bluesky, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Are the Capitals vulnerable in the playoffs? If they see the Rangers in the first round, that's no cakewalk. In the second round they'll get either the Hurricanes (most likely favored) or the Devils, who if they beat the Hurricanes would have done so playing their best hockey of the year. -- @NJDtootant

Sure, the Washington Capitals are vulnerable, but every team is in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and that's nothing new. They could be the favorite in the Eastern Conference and still get knocked out in the first round, which always has a chance to be wild, but if they were to play the New York Rangers in the first round again, it would be a role reversal from last year. The Rangers were the Presidents' Trophy winners, the deeper, more talented, healthier and dominant team last season. They swept Washington. It wasn't a surprise. The Capitals this season are the deeper, arguably more talented and certainly more dominant team. Health remains to be seen, of course.

Yes, the Rangers could present a problem for the Capitals, largely because of goalie Igor Shesterkin being the great equalizer, but too often this season they have been stuck in their own zone, turnover-prone and leaving holes in the middle of the ice. Even if the Rangers get into the playoffs, there's zero indication of any of that changing enough to pull a first-round upset against the Capitals, who have been as efficient in those areas as any team for the balance of the season. The Rangers' power play has been letting them down too and that used to be a great equalizer like Shesterkin. Instead, it's been one of their bigger problems.

The Capitals could also get the Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders or Detroit Red Wings in the first round. They'd be an overwhelming favorite against any of those teams and likely be most vulnerable against the Rangers based on playoff experience and history.

Which team from the East do you think is more likely going to be upset in the first round by the Senators if they clinch? -- @NDeOreos

The Ottawa Senators are 3-0-0 against the Toronto Maple Leafs this season, outscoring them 9-3 and winning twice in Toronto. If it is a Battle of Ontario series in the first round, all the pressure will be on the Maple Leafs. From the 30,000-foot viewpoint, that's an easy upset to predict. However, here's a crazy thought:

The Senators might want to play the defending Stanley Cup champion and two-time Eastern Conference champion Florida Panthers in the first round as opposed to facing the Maple Leafs or the Tampa Bay Lightning despite being a combined 2-3-0 against the Florida-based teams with games against the Lightning on Thursday and the Panthers on Saturday still to come.

Why?

For starters, we don't know what forward Matthew Tkachuk's status or health will be by the start of the playoffs. He's skating, having gotten back on the ice Monday for the first time since sustaining a lower-body injury in the 4 Nations Face-Off, but he's expected to miss the rest of the regular season, meaning he would be out for Florida's last 25 games. If he plays Game 1, which should be the expectation, will he do so while still compromised by his injury?

The Panthers won't know what their entire lineup could look like until Game 3 at the earliest because defenseman Aaron Ekblad will miss the first two games of the first round serving the remainder of his 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program. In addition, Brad Marchand is just getting used to his new team, but if the line is supposed to be Sam Bennett between Marchand and Tkachuk, they will have to see if they have chemistry in the most important games of the season. That's risky.

On top of it all, no team has played as much hockey as the Panthers have since the start of the 2022-23 season: 283 to date, including 45 in the playoffs. They wouldn't be the first team to run out of gas after two long playoff runs.

Since March 1, the Senators have been a strong, consistent team getting balanced scoring and showing depth that is needed to win in the playoffs. They have reliable goaltending and they're learning how to win at this time of the season, going 6-1-2 in one-goal games since March 3. It's the sign of a team growing and improving at the right time. They'll be a scary opponent for whoever they play, but as crazy as it might sound, the Panthers, for the reasons listed above, might be the team most prone to being upset by the upstart Senators.

Is Leon Draisaitl the Hart Trophy favorite, in your opinion? Is the Calder Trophy Lane Hutson's to lose? -- @austinmemeler

It's a close race. Nathan MacKinnon was NHL.com's favorite to win the Hart Trophy when we conducted a vote among 16 writers and editors at the three-quarter mark of the season, which was March 5. It was close then too. MacKinnon received 71 voting points and was first on nine of 16 ballots. Draisaitl was second with 47 voting points and three first-place votes. If we had to do the vote over again right now, it might even be closer, with Draisaitl taking more first-place votes, but I would still give the nod to MacKinnon.

There has been a lot of turmoil and change around the Avalanche with injuries and subpar goaltending early in the season and blockbuster trades. MacKinnon has been their unrelenting driving force. If not for his 41 points in the first 29 games, the Avalanche could have been underwater before they completely overhauled their goaltending. Instead, they were 16-13-0 at the time they acquired Mackenzie Blackwood from the San Jose Sharks on Dec. 9, after they got Scott Wedgewood from the Nashville Predators on Nov. 30.

MacKinnon had 34 points in the next 20 games, the Avalanche going 12-6-2 before they traded Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 24. He was hit hard by that, but he never allowed it to reflect in his play. In fact, he's been better since, incorporating Martin Necas into the offense and getting 35 points in 26 games with Colorado going 17-7-2.

The Avalanche are a different team now than they were at the start of the season, but MacKinnon has been the constant driver playing more minutes of any other forward in the League.

Danny Briere has yet another massive decision to make this offseason. Actually, he has several. His last big risk was selecting Matvei Michkov with the No. 7 pick, even though he was signed in the KHL. Now, he has to find a new coach as well as handle seven draft picks in the first two rounds this year. What is his main priority when selecting a new coach? Who are the leading candidates? Could he take a drive up the turnpike and talk to Todd Nelson or bring in a former Flyers player? Would it benefit Briere to wait until after the draft, with so many picks? -- @theashcity

The Philadelphia Flyers must hire a coach who can begin to build a winning culture at a time when the team is working through its development process. Marrying these two forces is a challenging task, but it's something that must be done for them to consistently ascend.

Too often teams that are rebuilding, like the Flyers, are prone to getting used to losing because it's part of the process, thinking that it is inevitable when you incorporate young players into the lineup and don't have proven gamebreakers. The Flyers have quality experienced players, but they also have plenty of younger, less experienced players who should be a big part of their future. They have several rising prospects and more coming into the organization, but when younger, less experienced players lose often enough, like the Flyers have done this season, it becomes that much harder to learn how to win. You get stuck in a losing cycle. That's the danger in the full rebuild. It can take years to turn things around because not only are you trying to draft and develop players, allowing them to graduate to the NHL on their timeline, you're typically not bringing them into a winning environment once they get to the NHL. The pressure gets put on them to change things but they're new and don't know how to do it, so the losing continues, and you run the risk of the rebuild failing.

The Senators have been rebuilding for several years and only now are they figuring out what it takes to win. It started a month ago. That's not a big enough sample size to say they have it all figured out. The Canadiens look like they might be figuring it out, but they still have several top prospects who haven't made it to the NHL yet. This could be a blip. The Buffalo Sabres haven't been able to figure it out. It's too soon to know about the Flyers, but that's what makes this next coaching hire so important.

The new coach will have to get a team that is not even close to being a finished product closer to the playoffs than it is this season. He will have to marry a winning culture with a team still in the development stage. With that, it makes sense for him to have NHL coaching experience seeing that an understanding of the League and how to win in it is key. It doesn't have to be head coaching experience, but experience as an assistant on an NHL bench could be key. The new coach needs to be willing to work with young players and have patience with their development, allowing them to play through mistakes while staying firm with them too. Too much rope will lead to too much losing. He will have to have a close working relationship with the leadership core to make sure the room is right. If things are not right in the dressing room, it's almost impossible to win on the ice.

Leading candidates all likely have a job right now, so listing them here would be way premature, but those are the traits the Flyers' new coach should have to push them forward.