Mailbag: Matthews' scoring, next contracts for Crosby, Lafreniere
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
© Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images
Auston Matthews, over/under 65 goals? -- @mfav2010
Under.
Matthews scored 69 goals last season, the 25th time in NHL history a player scored at least 65 in a single season. But it's rare to do it multiple times, and even rarer to do it in back-to-back seasons.
Wayne Gretzky (four times), Mario Lemieux (four), Brett Hull (three), Phil Esposito (three), Jari Kurri (two) and Mike Bossy (two) are the only players with multiple 65-goal seasons. Gretzky, Hull, Lemieux, Esposito and Kurri are the five who have done it in back-to-back seasons.
This isn't to say Matthews can't do it. He's the best goal scorer in the game right now. Certainly he's capable. But going with under 65 this season as an answer to this question simply is playing the odds based on how rare it is. Matthews also is going to be playing in a slightly different system under coach Craig Berube. There is a chance the Maple Leafs might sacrifice some offense from the 3.63 goals per game they scored last season to trim down the 3.18 they allowed. If that's the case, it could take a few goals away from Matthews, another reason to go with the under.
Now go watch him score 70 and prove me wrong.
I guess one thing I'm wondering is if the Rangers have had any contract talks regarding an extension with Alexis Lafreniere? -- @mattpod02
All quiet, as expected with the Rangers and general manager Chris Drury. There rarely are leaks when it comes to the Rangers. Tight-lipped is the appropriate term.
But we know Lafreniere is important to the Rangers. He is entering the second season of a two-year, $4.65 million contract ($2.325 million average annual value) he signed Aug. 24, 2023. He had 57 points (28 goals, 29 assists) in 82 games last season playing regularly on a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. The Rangers expect the chemistry between them to return quickly this season. If it does, it should be another big season for all three. Lafreniere is only starting to touch his potential.
I have no doubt Lafreniere will sign a new contract with the Rangers at some point. They won't lose him. He's a huge part of their present and future. But New York's cap structure for next season and several beyond will be determined by goalie Igor Shesterkin's next contract. Shesterkin also has one year left on his current contract. He needs to be the top priority, before Lafreniere and defenseman K'Andre Miller, who also has one year left on his contract, are taken care of.
Beyond all of that, Lafreniere shouldn't be in a rush to sign. His value will increase with a strong start to the season.
Do you see more rogue offer sheets becoming mainstream any time soon? They are interesting and cause movements and excitement, also scary too. -- @gregmaddensoc
Offer sheets are fun for fans, lucrative for the players who sign them, and divisive among teams and general managers. It makes for some quality offseason entertainment. They won't become mainstream, but they're a tool that should be utilized more with the rising salary cap, especially by teams that do not want to go into a full rebuild but need a larger stable of young, still loaded with potential, NHL-ready players. The St. Louis Blues are exactly that team.
The Blues were in the perfect position with their cap situation to take advantage of the Edmonton Oilers and their cap position by signing defenseman Philip Broberg to a two-year, $9.16 million contract ($4.58 million AAV) and forward Dylan Holloway to a two-year, $4.58 million contract ($2.29 million AAV).
The Oilers, with future large contracts coming for forwards Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, chose not to match, so they will receive the draft pick compensation as structured in the Collective Bargaining Agreement: a second-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft for Broberg and a third-round pick in 2025 for Holloway. Essentially, the Blues traded two draft picks for two players they can put in their lineup this season. That's a win for St. Louis and its hopes of getting back into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The risk is significant. They had to sign Broberg and Holloway to contracts large enough so the Oilers wouldn't match. Broberg, 23, and Holloway, 22, haven't proven enough to be worth the contracts they got from St. Louis. However, they both were first-round picks (Broberg was No. 8 in the 2019 NHL Draft, Holloway was No. 14 in the 2020 NHL Draft), so the Blues are gambling that they will start to reach their potential this season, making their salaries more palatable. The Oilers are not in the position to make that gamble. That's the key. The Blues targeted a team they knew was in a tough cap predicament and lined up two restricted free agents they were willing to bet big on. These situations are rare, but they exist. More teams should take advantage of the system to improve their playoff chances.
What's your take on Yaroslav Askarov? Who's your favorite team to land him? --@Jagr10190
Askarov, the Nashville Predators' 22-year-old goalie, has requested a trade, according to NHL Network's Kevin Weekes. The Predators released a statement Monday from general manager Barry Trotz saying the expectation is for Askarov to report to training camp in September and compete for a job. This is all understandable. And here's why:
The Predators made their choice when they signed goalie Juuse Saros to an eight-year, $61.92 million contract ($7.74 million AAV) on July 1. He still has one year remaining on his current contract before the new deal kicks in, which means they're banking on Saros to be their No. 1 goalie for the foreseeable future. Scott Wedgewood signed a two-year, $3 million contract ($1.5 million AAV) on July 1 to be Saros' backup. It's up to Askarov to beat out Wedgewood for that spot, but the Predators clearly are thinking that's at least one season away, or why else would they sign Wedgewood to a two-year deal. Askarov is coming off a sensational season with Milwaukee of the American Hockey League, going 30-13-1 with a 2.39 goals-against average, .911 save percentage and six shutouts in 44 games. And in two games with the Predators he had a 1.47 GAA and .943 save percentage.
Askarov clearly thinks he's ready for the NHL, but if he stays with Nashville he might be ticketed for another AHL season and there's no telling when he would get a chance to be a No. 1 in the NHL. Hence, the reported trade request.
In the end, I expect the Predators will trade Askarov, likely before the end of training camp. They better hope it's not the equivalent of the New York Islanders trading Roberto Luongo, but they should be able to get high value for him. There should be plenty of interest, from the Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Utah Hockey Club and Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference to the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference.
What's taking so darn long on the Sidney Crosby extension? -- @TopesWriter
The clock is ticking until this becomes an issue the Pittsburgh Penguins and Crosby do not want to deal with. What's taking so darn long? No clue. Crosby wants to play only for the Penguins. The Penguins don't want to anger Crosby. They certainly don't want to lose him. There's zero reason for the Penguins to play hardball with Crosby, who has shown no indication in his 19 seasons in Pittsburgh that he wants to play hardball. My hunch is the Penguins will open training camp with an announcement of Crosby's new contract. It'll kick off their camp with a bang, bring some positive energy and publicity. They need it. But if he shows up to camp without a new contract, the clock will stop ticking and it will be an issue.
Trevor Zegras. Trade chatter EVERYWHERE. No substantial evidence of anything actually coming together. What are you hearing? -- @JonROTTKOA
Nothing much. It's possible the Ducks are interested in trading Zegras, potentially before the season begins, but that's purely speculation at this point. Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek should be working behind the scenes to gauge market interest in Zegras. The 23-year-old center has two years remaining on his contract before he can again become a restricted free agent.
However, getting a fair reading on Zegras' market value is challenging coming off last season. He missed training camp because he didn't sign until Oct. 2. He was derailed by injuries, including a broken ankle sustained Jan. 9 that kept him out for 31 games, and had 15 points (six goals, nine assists) in 31 games. Zegras had 65 points (23 goals, 42 assists) in 81 games in 2022-23 and 61 points (23 goals, 38 assists) in 75 games in 2021-22.
His value currently is not at its highest point, and fair or not we don't know exactly what he is in the NHL yet. He could be the point-per-game, dynamic, playmaking center the Ducks expect him to be. He could be a 60-point player. Or, worst of all, he could be injury prone.
It's a tough spot for the Ducks, but either way, with Anaheim or elsewhere, this is a big season for Zegras to prove there's substance and staying power behind the obvious flash we've seen from him in the NHL.
If you had to name eight teams most likely to be the 2025 Stanley Cup champion, which eight teams would that be? No order necessary. I'd say: Edmonton, Florida, Rangers, Dallas, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Colorado, Toronto. I have Nashville, Tampa Bay, Boston, Vegas missing the cut. -- @Yamothasmit
1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Florida Panthers
3. New York Rangers
4. Boston Bruins
5. Dallas Stars
6. Nashville Predators
7. Colorado Avalanche
8. New Jersey Devils
