Mailbag: Trotz plan working for Predators; coaches on hot seat

Here is the Dec. 20 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

The Predators have been the hottest team in the NHL since mid-November. Do you think Barry Trotz changes his plan/process based on the early returns? -- @Boyd_1212

You're right about the Predators. They've been the best team in the NHL the past month, starting with a 4-2 win against the Chicago Blackhawks on Nov. 18 that ended a four-game losing streak. They are 13-4-0 in their past 17 games The power play is working. The defense and goaltending have been strong. They're winning one-goal games, with eight of their past 13 victories coming by that margin, but none of this should change Trotz's plan or process in his first season as general manager.

Trotz's plan and his process is built around the core in Nashville and the young players on the rise. He never said they were going into a full rebuild. In fact, Trotz was adamant that the Predators do not need to do that, especially with a Vezina Trophy-caliber goalie (Juuse Saros), a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman (captain Roman Josi) and an elite goal-scorer (Filip Forsberg). He said the team, its fans, the market, no one wanted that. There were ways to win while still developing talent.

Nashville signed Ryan O'Reilly (four years), Luke Schenn (three years) and Gustav Nyquist (two years) to bolster its veteran depth, which also features Ryan McDonagh on defense. Trotz never tempered expectations. He said the players had a lot to prove. They did. They still do. The plan and process should not change because it was never heavily tilted in one direction. The Predators felt they could be a good team. They are a good team. Should they decide to add to it, they can with plenty of space under the NHL salary cap and nine picks in the first four rounds of the 2024 NHL Draft that can be used capital. Let's see if they need to. Trotz hasn't ruled that out because the Predators are not rebuilding.

If you dare, can you name the next couple of coaches on the hot seat? -- @TrishTheMiddle

D.J. Smith was the coach that would have had the hottest seat today. He lost his chair Monday, when the Ottawa Senators fired him and assistant Davis Payne and replaced them on an interim basis with Jacques Martin and Daniel Alfredsson, respectively. The Senators are the fourth team to make a coaching change this season after the Edmonton Oilers (Kris Knoblauch for Jay Woodcroft), Minnesota Wild (John Hynes for Dean Evason) and St. Louis Blues (Drew Bannister for Craig Berube). That could be it unless something unforeseen happens.

If New York Islanders coach Lane Lambert was on the hot seat, he shouldn't be now. The Islanders, while erratic trying to hold leads, have stabilized their play in the past 10 games (6-1-3), and there doesn't appear to be a need to make any changes. If the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to make a change, I think it will happen in the offseason. Mike Sullivan has earned the right to see if he can coach them up the standings in the Metropolitan Division. If Sullivan gets fired, it might cause a domino effect. He's so highly regarded as a coach that another team might decide to fire who they have just to hire the two-time Stanley Cup champion. The Carolina Hurricanes are playing below expectations, but Rod Brind'Amour, who doesn't have a contract for next season, won't be fired. The two sides could mutually decide to separate after the season if the Hurricanes miss the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that's getting way ahead of ourselves.

There's definitely something wrong with the Buffalo Sabres, but even though there were questions about his impact on the team after a 9-4 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday, I still think it's too early to say coach Don Granato is in trouble. The Sabres are young, and maybe it was aggressive to say they'd be a playoff team this season. They have dealt with some injury issues that have limited their ability to find consistency. They are trending in the wrong direction. I want to see how the Sabres do in the second half, see if they make a push before saying Granato's job is in jeopardy.

The Washington Capitals are second to last in scoring but playing good defense. Do you see them adding and making the playoffs? -- @samb999

Defense leads to short-term success. There's no other way to explain it. In the NHL today, where scoring is up -- entering Wednesday there were 21 teams averaging at least 3.00 goals per game and another two at least 2.90 -- the Capitals are in the Eastern Conference playoff race despite averaging 2.41 goals per game. They're minus-9 in goal differential if you eliminate the five games that have been decided in a shootout (they're 3-2), and they are in the playoff race. Five of their 16 wins have come in games when they've scored two or fewer goals through at least 65 minutes, and there they are in the race. Their power play has been dreadful (10.6 percent) and their penalty kill has been solid but not spectacular (82.1 percent). They lose more face-offs than they win (47.3 percent). They give up more shots on goal than they get (30.9 to 27.8 per game). I don't think it's sustainable. So yes, if the Capitals are going to make the playoffs, they're going to have to generate more offense. They can do that from within (Alex Ovechkin?), but that may not be enough. They should try to add if they're still close in the race as the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline on March 8 starts to get closer.

Right now, the Capitals are in the bottom half of the League in every offensive category, including chances generated and shooting percentage. It's too hard to sustain performing at a playoff-caliber level when you can't even score 2.50 goals per game. For proof, of the 16 teams that made the playoffs last season, 14 averaged at least 3.00 in the regular season. The two that didn't were the Islanders (2.95) and Wild (2.91).

The Devils have had some impressive wins this season but have struggled for consistency. Although I'm still hopeful they'll make the playoffs, who are your early calls for making it? -- @digatrondave

Let's look back at my preseason predictions first. Here's how I had it:

Atlantic Division

1: Toronto Maple Leafs | 2: Boston Bruins | 3: Buffalo Sabres

Metropolitan Division

1: Carolina Hurricanes | 2: New York Rangers | 3: New Jersey Devils

Eastern Conference wild cards

1: Pittsburgh Penguins | 2: Tampa Bay Lightning

Central Division

1: Colorado Avalanche | 2: Dallas Stars | 3: Minnesota Wild

Pacific Division

1: Vegas Golden Knights | 2: Edmonton Oilers | 3: Los Angeles Kings

Western Conference wild cards

1: Seattle Kraken | 2: Vancouver Canucks

In the East, please allow me to take out the Sabres and replace them the Florida Panthers and remove the Penguins with the Islanders instead. I still think the Devils, Hurricanes and Lightning will get on some consistent ground and make it. Experience will play a big role. I'm not sold on the Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers or the Capitals.

In the West, the Winnipeg Jets for Minnesota and Nashville for Seattle. The Jets are for real and goalie Connor Hellebuyck is a huge weapon. The Kraken need more weapons. They neither score enough (2.68 goals per game) nor keep the puck out enough (3.12 goals against per game). They're fast and they play hard, but need more. The Oilers have come a long way back. They have a lot to prove, but I'll take my chances with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Predators have the defense and goaltending that can withstand the rest of the grind. They will add before the deadline to bolster their offense.

So, with some mulligans (preseason predictions are fun but silly), my current predictions:

Atlantic Division

1: Toronto Maple Leafs | 2: Boston Bruins | 3: Florida Panthers

Metropolitan Division

1: New York Rangers | 2: New Jersey Devils | 3: New York Islanders

Eastern Conference wild cards

1: Carolina Hurricanes | 2: Tampa Bay Lightning

Central Division

1: Colorado Avalanche | 2: Winnipeg Jets | 3: Dallas Stars

Pacific Division

1: Vegas Golden Knights | 2: Vancouver Canucks | 3: Los Angeles Kings

Western Conference wild cards

1: Nashville Predators | 2: Edmonton Oilers