Mailbag: Ovechkin resurgence, goaltending powering Capitals; top 2025 Draft prospects

Here is the Jan. 8 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X and Bluesky. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom on X, or @drosennhl.bsky.social on Bluesky, and tag them with #OvertheBoards.

What is your take on the Washington Capitals? What is behind the successful season so far? Lastly, should they bring in Ryan Leonard for the playoffs? -- @alehtonen_

Solid additions who have made an impact, quality goaltending, young players taking the next steps in their careers and a resurgence of Alex Ovechkin as one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL today. That's the Capitals in a nutshell. That's why they've been better than expected this season. And it's all backed by excellent coaching from Spencer Carbery, who should be the favorite for the Jack Adams Award given to the NHL coach of the year this season.

Washington essentially turned over more than a third of its roster from last season, but all nine players added have been a net positive, including forwards Lars Eller via trade and Jakub Vrana through a PTO. They're all playing regularly when healthy too. Forwards Pierre-Luc Dubois (31 points in 40 games), Taylor Raddysh (17 points in 40 games), Andrew Mangiapane (16 points in 39 games), Vrana (11 points in 25 games), Brandon Duhaime (nine points in 40 games) and Eller (seven points in 21 games), and defensemen Jakob Chychrun (28 points in 35 games) and Matt Roy (eight points in 30 game) have combined for 127 points (44 goals, 83 assists) in 270 games. That's a total 0.47 points per game coming from the additions the Capitals made in the offseason, including 0.80 from Chychrun and 0.78 from Dubois. Goalie Logan Thompson, acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights on June 29, has been one of the best goalies in the League, going 16-2-2 with a 2.39 goals-against average and .916 save percentage in 20 games. He has split time evenly with Charlie Lindgren, who is 10-8-2 with a 2.70 GAA and .900 save percentage.

Aliaksei Protas, 24, and Connor McMichael, 23, have each taken huge strides from last season. Protas already has 18 goals and 35 points in 40 games. He had six goals and 29 points in 78 games last season. McMichael has 31 points (17 goals, 14 assists) in 40 games; he had two more points, one more goal and one more assist in exactly twice as many games last season.

And then there's Ovechkin, who's scored 19 goals in 24 games, putting him 23 away from breaking Wayne Gretzky's record of 894. He missed 16 games with a fractured left fibula from Nov. 21-Dec. 23, but the Capitals survived going 10-5-1, a sign of the team they've become. Ovechkin had eight goals in Washington's first 43 games last season before finishing with 23 goals in the final 36, so he has 42 goals in his past 60 games since Jan. 27, 2024, which is sixth most in the NHL in that span, albeit in fewer games than the five players ahead of him.

Regarding Leonard, assuming he signs following this season at Boston College, it makes sense for the Capitals to use him in the Stanley Cup Playoffs if they need him and believe he can make an impact. Injuries would dictate that. A drop off in play from a top nine forward would dictate that, but just tossing Leonard in and limiting him to a fourth-line role, 10 minutes per game, doesn't make sense. That's not the player he is and it's not a role that fits him, but if there's a role for him, then yes, he should be a part of it.

How has the draft stock for the top potential NHL draft picks trended after the World Juniors? Are players like James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer and Porter Martone seeing their stock rise or fall? Additionally, will Michael Misa's exclusion from the Canada roster at the World Juniors significantly affect his draft position, or does his performance in the CHL still position him as a top pick? Does Schaefer's injury affect his draft position? -- @theashcity

After consulting with our expert prospect gurus Adam Kimelman and Mike G. Morreale, here's the consensus following their coverage of the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship in Ottawa from start to finish. They also host the "NHL Draft Class" podcast.

Kimelman said he thinks Hagens could get a bump after winning gold with the United States and scoring nine points (five goals, four assists) in seven games. He was the No. 1 center on the gold-medal winning team and drove plays. That should reinforce what was already widely believed, that he is an elite prospect. Kimelman said he thinks any one of Hagens, Schaefer or Misa will be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. Morreale said he thinks Hagens and Schaefer will likely be one and two, though not sure of the order, when NHL Central Scouting's midseason rankings come out Tuesday. He called Schaefer a no-frills Cale Makar and Hagens a no-frills Jack Hughes. That's pretty good company to keep. Schaefer's injury in the tournament, a broken collarbone, is also not expected to be a factor in his ranking and how he's viewed as a top prospect.

Kimelman and Morreale both do not think Misa's exclusion from Canada's roster for the World Juniors will impact his draft status. His exclusion, in fact, is seen as one of the roster-building mishaps by Hockey Canada, one of the reasons for its fifth-place finish in the tournament. Morreale said Misa is similar to how John Tavares played as a major junior player. He has special qualities, and it doesn't matter that he didn't play in the 2025 WJC.

Finally, Kimelman said Martone is likely fourth on this list behind Hagens, Schaefer and Misa because the scouting community believes he's more of a wing in the NHL, whereas Hagens and Misa could be No. 1 centers and Schaefer a No. 1 defenseman, but his tournament should not impact his draft status. It's more positional based.

How far out of the playoff race do the New York Rangers need to be for Chris Drury to sell? -- @BaldPanarin

The Rangers could sell regardless of where they are in the standings either going into or coming out of the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, which runs from Feb. 12-21. They're not a Stanley Cup contender this season. They're not fast enough. Their top players are not producing enough. They're inconsistent defensively. Their special teams have not been elite as they were last season. So short of a miracle run in their 15 remaining games leading into the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Rangers should be sellers. They have, in fact, already begun that process by trading Jacob Trouba to the Anaheim Ducks and Kaapo Kakko to the Seattle Kraken. They cleared $8 million off their cap for next season in the Trouba deal. Kakko can become a restricted free agent after this season and the Rangers were not sold on him long term, so they likely would have traded him by then anyway. They acquired defenseman Will Borgen, a pending unrestricted free agent, for Kakko. There is time to evaluate him to determine if they want to re-sign or trade him before the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline on March 7. Ryan Lindgren, Reilly Smith and Jimmy Vesey are trade candidates and pending UFAs as well.

The Rangers are not going into a rebuild. This should be seen as a retool, maybe similar to Washington from last season. The Capitals traded off pieces before the deadline and still made the playoffs, but they added in the offseason, as referenced in the answer to the question about them above. The Rangers will have plenty of cap space in the offseason to go through this retool. They could be back as a Stanley Cup contender next season, but they're not right now and that's why you already see them in a selling mode.

What is the max term and salary the Montreal Canadiens should offer Jake Evans? -- @bshah79

The Canadiens surely understand Evans' value as a productive, reliable, 28-year-old bottom-six center who wins face-offs and plays on the penalty kill. He's a pending UFA in the last season of a three-year, $5.1 million contract ($1.7 million average annual value). He recently told TVA Sports that he wants to stay with the Canadiens. He's due a raise based on his play. It's just a question of if the Canadiens are willing to give it to him. Evans has played 308 NHL games, all for Montreal, so the Canadiens know exactly what they have in him.

The thought in Montreal is that the Canadiens will sign Evans. He has 10 goals, 13 assists and 23 points in 40 games and on pace to top his previous NHL career highs. He set those highs in goals and points in 2021-22 with 13 and 29 in 72 games and had 21 assists last season, when he finished with 28 points in 82 games.

Guessing here, but Evans maybe could be looking at another three-year contract of about $8-9 million total. That's a healthy raise for a valuable player who isn't a top six forward, but it's one that won't crush the Canadiens' salary cap chart. Christian Dvorak will also be a UFA after the season and it's more likely he leaves and Evans stays. The Canadiens have Owen Beck, 20, in Laval of the American Hockey League. He could be in the NHL as a center next season.

How strong of a market will there be for Trent Frederic if the Bruins feel like they can't/won't sign him, and they decide to trade him? -- @rayguarino

Frederic's situation is like Evans' in Montreal in the fact that he's a valued bottom-six center and pending UFA. But it's different because he's already making more money than Evans ($2.3 million AAV on a two-year contract) and his numbers are declining, whereas Evans' are rising. Frederic, who is 26, has 12 points (six goals, six assists) in 43 games after setting NHL highs across the board last season with 18 goals, 22 assists, 40 points and 82 games played. His value on the open market can't be as high as the Bruins would hope for, but can they even afford to trade Frederic with their thin depth at center to begin with? If they're able to acquire a center that could make him expendable, especially if they're thinking about moving on from him after the season anyway. It's hard to quantify his value now because is he the player who elevated his game and production in each of his first three full NHL seasons or is he the player struggling to produce and playing too much on the perimeter?