Mailbag: Senators' playoff outlook; Selke Trophy talk

Here is the March 26 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X and Bluesky. Send your questions to @drosennhl on X and @drosennhl.bsky.social on Bluesky, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

What is the Senators' playoff ceiling this year provided everyone stays healthy? I see them headed toward the second round at least. -- @CleverStreich

To answer the question, we need to go by the assumption that the Ottawa Senators will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So, starting there, the answer depends on first-round opponent. For example, no one can argue there would be a solid chance of an upset if the Senators play the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference First Round. In fact, I think privately that's the last thing the Maple Leafs are hoping happens. Ottawa is 3-0-0 against them this season, winning 3-0 in Toronto on Nov. 12, 2-1 in Ottawa on Jan. 25 and 4-2 in Toronto on March 15. The Senators entered the game on March 15 with a five-game winning streak and seven-game point streak. The Maple Leafs were struggling, having lost four of five. Ottawa showed resiliency, responding twice in the second period to Maple Leafs goals. That was a Saturday night in Toronto. The spotlight was on. The Senators were good.

All the pressure would be on the Maple Leafs if this Battle of Ontario series were to happen. They're the favorite. They're the team that hasn't been able to sniff much success in the playoffs, that has to end their string of playoff disappointments. They're the team in their Stanley Cup window, trying to win it before Mitch Marner's future gets ironed out. He can be an unrestricted free agent after this season. The Senators haven't been to the playoffs since 2017. They're still building toward their window. Beyond that, they would likely have an advantage in goal with Linus Ullmark, and their in-your-face style of play would present a challenge to the Maple Leafs. In two of their three head-to-head games, Ottawa has been better than Toronto playing in between the circles and in front of the net. It has skated better and made the simple plays look simpler.

However, the Senators haven't fared as well against the Florida Panthers (1-1-0), the Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2-0) or the Washington Capitals (1-0-2) this season. They still have one game remaining against Florida and Tampa Bay. Unlike the Maple Leafs, the Panthers, Lightning and Capitals have Stanley Cup pedigree. Florida and Tampa Bay have goaltending to match Ottawa. Washington arguably does too. It's debatable if Toronto does.

This isn't to say that facing the Maple Leafs would make the Senators the favorite, but playing Toronto would be more favorable for Ottawa than playing Florida, Tampa Bay or Washington.

Do you think Aliaksei Protas could earn substantial Selke Trophy votes this season? -- @mugnoma

He could, but it shouldn't be an expectation.

Protas, the Capitals forward, is having a season worthy of consideration for the Selke Trophy, which goes to the best defensive forward. Entering Tuesday, he was third in the NHL in even strength goals-for percentage (66.4 percent) and second in even strength goal differential (plus-38). He was on the ice for 77 even strength goals-for and 39 against. He had 63 points (29 goals, 34 assists) and was plus-42. It all speaks to Protas being a strong two-way player, which is essential to winning the Selke Trophy.

Protas was playing only 16:30 per game, sixth among forwards on his own team, but his 14:48 at even strength was second behind Pierre-Luc Dubois, the one player who had a better even strength goal differential (plus-39). He was playing 1:33 per game on the penalty kill. That's all good, all check marks to Protas being at least in the conversation for the Selke Trophy.

However, Protas is not playing center regularly, and although it can happen, it is rare that a wing gets a lot of Selke Trophy consideration. Marner and Mark Stone of the Vegas Golden Knights have been the exceptions to that unwritten rule of late. Marner was the second runner-up for the Selke Trophy in 2022-23. Stone was the second runner-up in 2020-21 and the runner-up in 2018-19. The last time a non-center won the Selke Trophy was in 2002-03, when Jere Lehtinen won it for the third time (also 1997-98 and 1998-99).

The Selke Trophy, perhaps more than any other postseason award, generally takes time to win and chances grow with recognition. Protas is 24 and this is the second time in his four NHL seasons that he's played 70 or more games. He has never gotten a single vote for the Selke Trophy. Two-time winner Aleksander Barkov of the Panthers received one fourth-place vote in 2014-15 before finishing sixth in the Selke voting in 2015-16. Then he was on the map. He got a fourth-place finish in 2017-18, fifth in 2018-19 and 11th in 2019-20 before winning it for the first time in 2020-21. He won it again last season. Barkov was blocked by Patrice Bergeron. Protas is now blocked by Barkov. He's also on a long list of candidates this season that should at least include Barkov, Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers), Marner, Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings) and Anthony Cirelli (Lightning).

If the Rangers finish where they are right now, do they give the Penguins their first-rounder or roll the dice and give them the first-rounder in the deep 2026 draft unprotected? -- @cpelusi

This is not a choice for the Rangers. It matters only where they finish.

The Rangers' first-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft will transfer to the Pittsburgh Penguins via the Vancouver Canucks provided it does not fall in the top 13 selections of the draft. When they traded the pick as part of the deal that brought J.T. Miller to New York the terms of the conditions were the 2025 first-round pick was top 13 protected. So, if it falls in the top 13 of the draft, the Rangers by the terms of the trade with Vancouver have to transfer their 2026 first-round pick, and if that were to happen the 2026 first-round selection would be unprotected. The Penguins acquired the Rangers' pick from the Canucks in a separate trade.

So, there is no rolling of the dice here. It all matters where the Rangers finish.

Which team that misses the playoffs will make the most drastic changes in the offseason? -- @kris996.bsky.social

The Boston Bruins will likely be in the big change market if they miss. They already started by trading forward Brad Marchand to the Panthers and defenseman Brandon Carlo to the Maple Leafs on March 7, minutes before the NHL Trade Deadline. You have to figure there will be further roster shakeups; there has to be after failing to come close to high expectations. Joe Sacco is interim coach after replacing Jim Montgomery on Nov. 19. If the Bruins miss the playoffs, they likely will conduct a full coaching search and could have a new bench boss in place.

If the Rangers miss the playoffs, expect some significant changes in New York too. They have already been working on the core during the season. They acquired forward J.T. Miller, and defensemen Will Borgen and Carson Soucy. Miller and Soucy were already signed beyond this season. They extended Borgen. They traded forwards Kaapo Kakko and Filip Chytil, and defenseman Jacob Trouba, who was their captain. I would expect more changes. Is coach Peter Laviolette's job in jeopardy? What about the futures of forwards Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin? Kreider and Panarin are each signed through next season. It's hard to sell going from Presidents' Trophy winners and Eastern Conference finalists to out of the playoffs without making changes.

It is entirely possible that all seven Canadian franchises make the playoffs. With this in mind, how confident should Canadian citizens be that this is the year a Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup? Who is the favorite? -- @theashcity

It is unlikely all seven Canada-based teams will make the playoffs. The Canucks and Calgary Flames could miss with the way the St. Louis Blues have been playing since just before the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Minnesota Wild and Blues would have to drop for the Canucks and Flames to both get in. Maybe one falls apart, though it's doubtful. Both crumbling at this point would be shocking. On top of that, the Canucks are dealing with injuries to forwards Elias Pettersson, Nils Hoglander and Chytil. Do those catch up to them? That is entirely possible, far more possible than both Vancouver and Calgary joining the Jets, Oilers, Maple Leafs, Senators and Canadiens in the playoffs. The Canadiens aren't a lock either. The same can be said for the Senators, but their chances look good.

That said, there is good reason for Canadians to be optimistic that a Canada-based team will win the Cup for the first time since Montreal in 1993. The Jets have been the best team in the Western Conference all season and arguably the best team in the NHL too. They should be motivated by their recent playoff failures, bowing out in five games in each of the past two years. They have arguably the best goalie in the League in Connor Hellebuyck. The core of the team has been together for several seasons and has lived through the disappointments together. The same thing happened with the Capitals before they won in 2018, the Lightning before they won in 2020 and 2021, the Colorado Avalanche before they won in 2022 and the Panthers before winning last season.

The Oilers reached Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last season. They lost, so they know that feeling. If healthy, they have the ability to get back to the Cup Final and potentially win it this season.

Toronto has dealt with its fair share of playoff disappointment too. The Maple Leafs are deeper than they have been, better defensively and they could have a playoff-style identity that needs to carry into the playoffs. If it does, they could come out of a wide-open Eastern Conference, though the Senators would be problematic if that first-round series happens.