Mailbag: Hughes' hot start for Devils; Sabres find stride

Here is the Nov. 1 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

What do you make of Jack Hughes' hot start and how sustainable is the Devils' power play? -- @Teeeeejj

Hughes' hot start is sustainable. The New Jersey Devils' red-hot power play is not.

Hughes is one of the best players in the world right now and will be for a long time. He's the new version of Patrick Kane, only at the center position instead of right wing. He's slippery good, hard to cover with elite hands, hockey sense and coordination. He moves around the ice like he's floating and when he gets the puck, he's become strong enough to hold onto it. It used to be easy to bang into Hughes and get the puck off him. Now he doesn't get hit because he's too quick and elusive. He has 18 points (five goals, 13 assists) in eight games. OK, so that's a 184-point pace. He's not getting 184 points, but he got 99 last season and I'll be stunned if he doesn't approach 115 or 120 this season. So, sure, he'll slow down, but that doesn't mean his hot start isn't sustainable to the point where he is going to be in the running for the Art Ross Trophy as the leading scorer in the NHL, and by extension the Hart Trophy given to the most valuable player, all season.

But Hughes' production is tied directly to the Devils' torrid power play. He has 10 points (three goals, seven assists) on New Jersey's man-advantage, which is 42.4 percent through eight games. That's 10 percent better than the Edmonton Oilers were last season, and they set the NHL record for the best single-season power-play percentage (32.4 percent). The power play will slow down and with it will Hughes' production on it. That's a big reason why he won't continue to average 2.25 points per game.

However, the Devils will continue to have an elite power play all season because of the personnel they can put on it and the chemistry they clearly have together. They have scored at least two power-play goals in six of eight games. Let's say it drops 15 percent. That's still a power play between 27 and 28 percent. Only 21 times in NHL history has a team had one at 27.0 percent or better in a full season. It's reasonable to think the Devils could be the 22nd team to do it.

What do you make of the Buffalo Sabres? Aside from the opening 5-1 loss to the New York Rangers they've been in a lot of close games, winning some, losing some. Are they on the up after their recent 4-0 win against Colorado? -- @brett_donaghue

That 4-0 win against the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday was as good as it gets against a top team in the NHL. The Sabres limited Colorado to 23 shots on goal, 16 at even strength. They protected goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen by blocking 21 shots. They had four different goal-scorers and their defensemen contributed on the score sheet. The only problem was they put the Avalanche on the power play five times before Jeff Skinner's penalty with six seconds left in the third period gave Colorado a sixth chance on the man-advantage. But the Sabres killed all of them off, and four of the five (before Skinner's) came after they built a 3-0 lead.

The Sabres have scored at least four goals in four straight games, and easily their best game of the season was against the Avalanche. It was a tougher than expected start, when they went 2-4-0 with 13 goals in their first six games, but they've gotten the offense going in the past four. If they can check, defend and outplay a top team like the Avalanche, then good things are going to keep coming. I picked them to make the playoffs for a reason. They will.

The Sharks' over/under for total wins? Are we talking 10-15 range? -- @ren_lessard

Twenty. Give me the over, but not by much.

The Sharks are 0-8-1 through nine games, but not since the 2001-02 Atlanta Thrashers (19-47-5 with 11 ties) has an NHL team finished with fewer than 20 wins in an 82-game season. The 2003-04 Chicago Blackhawks and 1995-96 Sharks each won 20. The NHL went to the 82-game schedule in 1995-96, and every team has played that many each season since except for 2012-13 (48-game lockout), 2019-20 (cut short due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus) and 2020-21 (56-game COVID-19-shortened season).

It's been ugly for the Sharks. They've scored nine goals in nine games and allowed 34, an average of 3.78 per game. They're not helping their goalies with any goal production and they're allowing 38.3 shots on goal per game. There's nothing in their games of late to suggest changes are coming. They had a 1-0 lead going into the third period against the Washington Capitals on Sunday but allowed three goals on 17 shots in the third and lost 3-1. They lost 3-0 and were outshot 40-20 by the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday. They've been shut out twice and scored one goal in six other games this season.

Here's the good news: Their next four games are at home against the Vancouver Canucks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers and Oilers, three teams that did not make the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season and a fourth, the Oilers, who are off to a rough start. The hope is that San Jose captain Logan Couture can return to the lineup at some point in November. The forward hasn't played yet this season because of a lower-body injury and it's a big loss. Mikael Granlund returned against Washington for the first time since opening night, so adding another veteran forward to the lineup makes a difference even if Granlund is not a gamebreaker.

The Sharks need a win. Get one or two on this four-game homestand and confidence will start to return. The goaltending has been solid; Kaapo Kahkonen and Mackenzie Blackwood each has a .907 save percentage. That's something to build from. The Sharks need to start scoring. That's obvious. But they really need to start protecting their goalies and cutting down on the shots against. Have the puck more. Controlled breakouts. Tighter support. Goals will come. Wins will follow. Not enough to be playoff relevant, but at least enough to avoid making some bad history.

Which team do you believe or feel will have an incredible run to sprint themselves from the bottom of the League standings to up top? -- @IceTime9899

I think the Calgary Flames can do it even though they've lost five consecutive games and are 31st in points percentage (.278), ahead of only the Sharks (.056).

Why the Flames? Three reasons:

1. The talent is still there for them to get hot and make a run, though their best players have to start finishing.

2. The Pacific Division is wide open after the Vegas Golden Knights.

3. Their penalty kill is good (90.9 percent), they limit shots on goal against (29.2 percent), win face-offs (53.3 percent) and generate more even-strength shot attempts per game (53.8 percent) than their opponents.

The analytics suggest the Flames should be better than 2-6-1 through nine games. Despite their better shot generation, they're shooting 5.2 percent at even strength. Only the Sharks (3.4 percent) are worse. That's on their top players to finish. If that starts happening, the shooting percentage will obviously improve. They need saves. Their 5-on-5 save percentage is last (.875). For comparison, the Los Angeles Kings are 31st at .890, but they are first in goals per game (4.33) so it cancels out their subpar goaltending.

According to NHL Edge, the Flames are in the 96th percentile for even strength offensive zone time (43.3 percent) and the NHL average was 40.7 percent. The problem is they're below the 50th percentile in high danger shots on goal (54), goals (eight) and shooting percentage (14.3 percent). The NHL averages were 71 shots on goal, 13 goals and 19.2 percent shooting. Again, it's about finishing.

The Flames are scoring 2.11 goals per game. If they keep playing the way they're playing, that will change provided they find some finishing touch. If it happens, they can start winning regularly if their goaltending comes along for the ride.

Do you think too much is made of a team's performance after just the first 10 or so games of the season? I've already seen stories about certain teams tanking. Maybe wait until the season is about a quarter or a third over before predictions? -- @TrishTheMiddle

Yes. Overreactions happen in the first month of the season. It's part of it. It makes it kind of fun. Shawn Roarke and I recently talked about our favorites on the "NHL @TheRink" podcast, but I'll leave it to John Hynes to tell you why they shouldn't be taken seriously, and why many of these overreactions are not at all relevant by U.S. Thanksgiving. The former Devils and Nashville Predators coach wrote all about this in his first installment of our weekly Coaches Room. 

I agree with Hynes. The Oilers aren't going to blow it all up because they're 2-5-1 through eight games and 30th in the NHL with a .313 points percentage. They're going to work to rectify the problems they've been having, with positives coming out of a 5-2 win against the Flames in the 2023 Tim Hortons NHL Heritage Classic on Sunday. The Penguins aren't going to revamp their entire power play because it's 14.8 percent through nine games. Heck, it scored two goals (2-for-7) in a 4-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Monday. Positive steps. Progress.

It's too early for accurate analysis. The sample size is too small.