Mailbag: Start to Oilers' season, lessons learned after 1st week

Here is the Oct. 16 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X (formerly Twitter). Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom and tag them with #OvertheBoards.

Are you shocked at the Edmonton Oilers' start based on their streaky track record? -- @mugnoma

Shocked is too strong of a word. The Oilers got their first win of the season, 4-3 against the Philadelphia Flyers at Rogers Place, on Tuesday. After four games they're shooting 5.5 percent, scoring seven goals on 127 shots. They're probably going to score in bunches with the talent they have up front. Their save percentage is .818. That will rebound. Combine that with the expected goals and a rocky start will turn around.

They also have some issues they need to address, such as their back end. We knew that going into the season. If there was a worry or concern, it was their depth on defense after Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard. They need another second-pair defenseman. Darnell Nurse is fine on the left side, but they need someone on the right. Travis Dermott is in that spot, but better suited for third-pair duty. Troy Stecher and Ty Emberson are better for the No. 7 spot. The second pair will play harder minutes than Ekholm and Bouchard because Ekholm and Bouchard will get more ice time with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That means the second pair will play in the defensive zone more than Ekholm and Bouchard, but limiting the time there is key and that's why the Oilers need an upgrade in that spot.

Let's see where they're at when they get to the 10-game mark. If it's still near the bottom of the League in goals for and goals against, well, now we've got a real problem to analyze. Right now, it's puck luck that is not on Edmonton's side and indications of issues we already knew existed and expect to be addressed at some point.

With it being so early on it's hard to make any real determinations. What do you think viewers/puck watchers can learn about teams in this very early season? -- @flak123

You can start to see the depth of teams, especially those dealing with injuries. The New Jersey Devils are playing without defensemen Brett Pesce and Luke Hughes, but Seamus Casey and Johnathan Kovacevic have played well in their absence. Now we have a better understanding of the depth of the Devils' defense and there should be confidence when further injuries inevitably occur. The Devils are also not relying solely on their top players to produce. They're getting big contributions from depth forwards like Paul Cotter and Stefan Noesen, biding time for Jack Hughes and Timo Meier to come around.

You can start to see how team speed will be an asset for teams. The Utah Hockey Club will be a pain to play against because of its speed. Utah is going to push the pace and put opponents on their heels. They started with three straight wins, shooting a wildly successful 20.2 percent (16 goals on 79 shots), before failing to score on 20 shots in a 3-0 loss to the Devils on Monday. That shooting percentage (16.2 percent) will be hard to sustain, but their speed won't be. We know what their identity is going to be.

You can start to see the impact of high-end players getting off to strong starts. Artemi Panarin has three straight multipoint games to start the season (two goals, five assists). Not surprisingly, the New York Rangers are 2-0-1. Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Mark Stone have a combined 23 points (seven goals, 16 assists) in their first four games. Not surprisingly, the Vegas Golden Knights are 3-1-0 with their top line highlighting the score sheet.

You can start to see confidence brewing in players who need it, like Jonathan Huberdeau, whose six points (three goals, three assists) have helped the Calgary Flames start 4-0-0. Huberdeau's first two seasons in Calgary have been ordinary at best. His start bodes well for what might be to come for him and the Flames.

You can start to see which teams are responding to new coaches, like the Devils with Sheldon Keefe, and the Toronto Maple Leafs and their five goals-against in three games under Craig Berube.

You can also start to see which teams have areas of concern that might need addressing sooner rather than later. Examples include the Colorado Avalanche and their goaltending, the Oilers and their defense when the top pair of Ekholm and Bouchard are not on the ice, the Seattle Kraken and Detroit Red Wings finding the back of the net, and the Buffalo Sabres finding chemistry. The Kraken did get their offense going with a 7-3 win at the Nashville Predators on Tuesday.

While nobody is arguing that he's worth the money, is it crazy to think the Rangers should think twice before giving Igor Shesterkin $12 million-plus for a long-term deal? They previously struggled to keep talented players while working around Henrik Lundqvist's deal too. -- @MikeBolino

It's not crazy to think twice but stop right there. Do not think a third time, because then you might make a decision you'll regret. Shesterkin, the Rangers goalie, is worth the next contract he will get, whether the AAV starts with an 11 or a 12. He should get it. He will get it. And unless he somehow completely falls apart or injuries derail him, it will not be an albatross on the Rangers' salary cap. Beyond his obvious talent and the fact that he is their best and most important player, there are other mathematical factors to consider.

If we ballpark Shesterkin's next contract to be worth $12 million annually, then next season, when the NHL salary cap is currently projected to be about $92 million, the goalie will account for 13.0 percent of New York's total cap. If the cap again goes up in 2026-27 to, say, $95 million, the percentage drops to 12.6 percent. The cap is expected to continue to climb, which means Shesterkin's percentage of it will continue to drop.

Since you brought up Lundqvist, his seven-year, $59.5 million contract signed Dec. 4, 2013, was the NHL's most lucrative for a goalie at that time. It carried an $8.5 million AAV, accounting for 12.4 percent of the Rangers' total salary cap in 2014-15, when the NHL salary cap was $69 million. That's in the Shesterkin ballpark. The Rangers at the time were coming off a Stanley Cup Final appearance and in 2014-15 they won the Presidents' Trophy and fell one game shy of getting back to the Cup Final, losing Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Lundqvist was then, like Shesterkin is now, the Rangers' best and most important player. It wasn't until 2018 that New York decided it was time to rebuild.

Carey Price bested Lundqvist's contract when he signed his eight-year, $84 million deal with the Montreal Canadiens on Sept. 2, 2017. It kicked in in 2018-19, when the NHL cap was $79.5 million. The $10.5 million AAV accounted for 13.21 percent of the Canadiens' cap that season.

Sergei Bobrovsky has helped the Florida Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final the past two seasons, winning it last season, with a $10 million AAV on a seven-year, $70 million contract he signed July 1, 2019. His $10 million AAV accounted for 12.1 percent of the Panthers' total cap in 2022-23 ($82.5 million) and 11.97 percent last season ($83.5 million).

Andrei Vasilevskiy's $9.5 million AAV accounted for 11.66 percent of the Tampa Bay Lightning's total cap in 2020-21, the first season of his eight-year, $76 million contract. They have since won the Stanley Cup twice (2020 and 2021) and reached the Cup Final again in 2022, losing in six games to the Avalanche.

The fact is that Shesterkin is going to set the market for goalie contracts, but the percentage of his AAV on the Rangers' cap will not be dramatically different than the previous goalies who have set the market.

Which goalie has a bigger impact, Linus Ullmark getting Ottawa into the playoffs or Alexandar Georgiev lowering Colorado's chances? -- @JLazzy23

Ullmark, because he may very well be the Ottawa Senators' missing ingredient in a Stanley Cup Playoff cocktail, similar to Jacob Markstrom in New Jersey. The Senators, like the Devils, lacked a No. 1 goalie last season, when both were expected to continue to take steps. It ruined their seasons, but the confidence the Senators gain from having Ullmark, from knowing they have a goalie who can and will bail them out, who can and will win a game for them on his own, who has a track record, that is a Vezina Trophy winner, it could make the difference in the Senators finding their way into the playoffs. They can score, especially on the power play. The key is keeping it out, raising a save percentage that last season was tied for last in the NHL (.884). Eleven of the 14 teams that had a .900 save percentage last season made the playoffs. I'll be surprised if Ottawa's save percentage isn't at least .900 by the end of the season. There won't be too many 8-7 games.

Georgiev and the Avalanche goaltending struggles in general will hurt in the long run, but not enough to keep them out of the playoffs. They have enough talent and experience to outscore their issues on a more consistent basis. Georgiev also has enough of a track record that he could turn it around for a stretch, get hot and carry the Avalanche to a run that solidifies their playoff positioning. The Senators won't do that without Ullmark.