Zizing 'Em Up: NHL general managers discuss 2023 Trade Deadline

NHL.com staff writer Mike Zeisberger has been covering the NHL regularly since 1999. Each Sunday during the season, he will use his extensive network of hockey contacts to write his weekly notes column, "Zizing 'Em Up."

TORONTO -- As a way of ushering in 2023, let's examine what might be in store in the hockey world in the coming months.
To do that, NHL.com introduces The General Managers' Roundtable: New Year's Edition. We've enlisted the services of the Edmonton Oilers' Ken Holland, Bill Guerin of the Minnesota Wild and the Dallas Stars' Jim Nill to peer into their respective crystal balls for some insight into the future as it pertains to the final three-plus months of the 2022-23 season.
All three agree on one thing: predicting what will happen in the next eight weeks leading up to the NHL Trade Deadline on March 3 is a murky proposition at best.
"I'm not sure I've ever been as unsure of how a deadline will play out as I am right now," Holland said. "With so many teams up against the salary cap and so many teams packed tightly in Stanley Cup Playoff contention, how many actual sellers will there end up being? And how many teams that consider themselves buyers will have the finances to do it?"
All legitimate questions the panel is ready to tackle.
Happy New Year, all! Let the discussions and debates begin.
First off, Season's Greetings to each of you. Looking ahead, there still are eight weeks left until the NHL Trade Deadline and, as Ken said, there is a lot of uncertainty as to what kind of market it might be. What makes it so difficult to predict?
Holland: "It's going to be an interesting trade deadline because I don't know that I've ever seen a season where so many teams are so tight, both in the standings and up against the cap. Like I said, I think it's an unknown. Will there be some movement? Yeah, there always is. Question is, will there be just a whole lot of little moves around the League, or will there be some bigger moves? Because certainly for some of the teams it's just an unknown, a great unknown because so many teams are so tight."
Nill:"We've been talking among ourselves about this. How many teams are in it? There are a bunch of teams that are two or three wins from getting back into the wild card spot. So, teams go on a run, the teams above them lose two or three, and the standings tighten up again. When that happens, the number of sellers dwindles."
Guerin: "That's the thing. No one's really out of it, so why are you going to move someone? I mean, if you are six points out right now, it doesn't mean anything. If you had a bad week and drop six points, you're going to drop seven spots. Have a good week, and you're back in it just as quickly. It's so volatile right now and things change so quickly. So, I agree with Jim and Ken. Given there are so many teams still in it, why would anyone sell off early?"
Sidney Crosby told NHL.com a few weeks ago that he's never seen such parity in the NHL before, a situation that leads to so many teams being clogged together in the standings. Do you guys share Crosby's take?
Holland:"Definitely. There is tremendous parity right now. I can't tell you every team that makes the playoffs can win the Cup, but I do think anyone is capable of winning a round or two."
Guerin: "I've never seen parity like this before. It's crazy. There are zero off nights. If a team is perceived to be in a rebuild, it doesn't matter. They can still beat the top team in the League. Anybody can beat anybody on any single night."
How much has the salary cap played a role in evening the field, especially when it remained relatively flat during the coronavirus pandemic?
Guerin: "I think the cap staying flat for a couple of years really evened things out, yes. I think there's been more talent spread out across the League than ever before too. Because of those things, when guys play hard, they can win. Like I always say, managers and hockey ops people, they're the ones that do the rebuild; the coaches and players don't care about that. They play hard every night. Everybody wants to win every night regardless of the situation."
Holland: "I'd have to look more closely but it appears, as I mentioned earlier, there are a lot of teams really close to the cap. The cap going from $80.5 million to $81.5 million to $82.5 million, and a good chance it'll go to $83.5 million, that's not a lot of movement. We used to run 23 players on the roster with cap space to call two guys up, so basically running off 25 players. We're now running 21 players just because of the minimal movement of the cap recently. Salaries go up, the cap hardly has. I think that has really added to the competitive balance with the cap moving so slowly on the top end. Certainly, teams that are tight against the cap are letting players go free. And teams that have cap space, or headcount space, were able to pick up those players, helping them be more competitive. It should all make for an interesting Trade Deadline."
Nill: "Yeah, parity is a factor, but so is the cap. There's only so much money in the system. Where is all this money going to change hands? Something's going to happen at the deadline, sure, but how all this money is going to exchange hands when it happens comes into play also. Potential injuries between now and the deadline are a factor too when it comes to opening up cap space and having to fill holes in your lineup."
In a perfect world, which areas of your respective teams would you like to address by the deadline, as cloudy as the future might look right now?
Holland:"I think we're the No. 1 power play in the NHL, and in the top five in goals. We need to be better defensively. Can I address some of that between now and the deadline? Keep in mind, when I made the coaching change last year and Jay Woodcroft took over, our team cut the goals-against down dramatically the second half of the year. I think in our last 46 games of last season, we were in the top 10 in least goals-against and top five in points in the standings. So, I think most nights we can score pretty good, but we have to tighten up a little bit. And part of that requires commitment to play that way. Do I make a move or two? Well, in the next 20 games or so, we need to play at a high level to play our way into buyer mode. Don't forget, we're going to get Evander Kane (wrist) back before the end of the season too."
Guerin:"In an ideal world, would I like to add a scoring winger? That would be something. But we haven't been healthy for a while, and that's been my main focus -- seeing how we play when we're healthy."
Nill: "We haven't had a lot of injuries and we're fortunate, but we have to be prepared for that if it happens. I've got a lot of young players knocking at the door, both up front and on defense, and I want to get a good look at them, see where they are in their development, and if they're ready to come up and give us the depth we need. If we find out we might need to go in a different direction, we'll take it from there. But I don't foresee us doing anything real big. Of course, things can change really fast."
Finally, what trends do you foresee happening in the coming months as we look ahead to 2023 and the second half of the season? For example, scoring is up to more than six goals per game this season. Do you expect that to continue?
Holland: "I think the League is in a great place, and a lot of it has to do with the influx of a lot of talented young players. There is lots of goal scoring and a lot of lead changes where teams down by two or three goals are coming back and winning. Part of that comes from improved power plays. We talked about that at the recent GM meetings. There is more skill than ever, and it shows on power plays. One of the keys to cut down on goals-against is staying out of the penalty box. I think teams might tighten up defensively in the second half, but that's hard if you don't cut down on penalties."
Nill: "I think it might tighten up a little bit, but I think the increased scoring in our league is a reflection that the skill level has never been higher. With that, I just think a lot of the younger players have been brought up with less defensive awareness, and it shows. It leads to parity and, hand-in-hand with that, runs. Teams seem to go on runs now. You can be down two goals, four goals, and it doesn't matter. You're not out of the game. It's hard to stop the runs. We talked about that with our team. It's like basketball where a team will be up by 20, then the other team reels off 15 or 20 points of its own. It's all part of the increased offensive skill in the League, but with that, it's hard to maintain your team structure on the ice."
Guerin: "I expect scoring to stay as is, and the playoff races to stay just as heated. Maybe we'll see a few teams drop off. But I think it's going to go right down to the wire, to be honest."
QUOTE/UNQUOTE
"I knew he was a heck of a player and one of the top competitors you'll find in the game. What I didn't know until I got to Florida is that he's an even better human being. From the secretaries to the people who work in the dressing rooms to the bus drivers to airline attendants, this guy goes out of his way to treat people with respect no matter what their job is. It's been one of the most pleasant surprises I've had since I came here in the summer." -- Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice on forward Matthew Tkachuk
THE SUNDAY LIST
The sports writing profession has given me the privilege of covering a cache of outdoor games over the years, all very cool experiences (both in enjoyment and, in the case of most, temperature), each individually unique in its own right. On the eve of the 2023 Discover NHL Winter Classic between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins at Fenway Park in Boston, here are my personal favorite moments from those past events I had the honor of attending:
Battle at The Big House (Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 at Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Jan. 1, 2014): Simply put, this was The Original Six on steroids. An NHL-record crowd of 105,491 was a sight to behold. Because both fan bases were allotted tickets to sit in sections with supporters of the same team, one half of the stadium was in Detroit red, the other in Toronto blue. A game that went right down to the end, with Tyler Bozak scoring the winner for the Maple Leafs in the shootout. And it snowed. Of course, it did. A spectacle like no other.
2. Green Monster Mania (Boston Bruins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1, OT at Fenway Park, Boston, Jan. 1, 2010): Marco Sturm's overtime goal was thrilling enough, but the personal high point came a day or two before at the media skate. For a lifetime Red Sox fan, being able to skate in the shadow of the famed 37-foot-high "Green Monstah" was thrilling enough. But there was more. Joining us on the ice for the event were former Bruins forward Ken Hodge, who alongside Phil Esposito and Wayne Cashman formed one of the NHL's most productive and iconic lines of the early 1970s; and Dave "The Hammer" Schultz, the former Flyers pugilist who accrued 2,294 career penalty minutes. The moral of the story: When you skate alongside "The Hammer," people get out of your way. In a hurry.
3. Rockin' Wrigleyville (Detroit Red Wings 6, Chicago Blackhawks 4 at Wrigley Field, Chicago, Jan. 1, 2009):The temperature was at the freezing mark of 32 degrees Fahrenheit at puck drop, and the famed frosty winds of Wrigley made it feel much chillier than that. How did fans cope with those conditions? To find out, I decided to trek up to the famed rooftop seats across Waveland Avenue from the left field bleachers. The conclusion? Layer after layer of clothing was a key for these rambunctious hearty souls, but so too were the types of adult beverages that left a toasty feeling in their bellies. All in all, it was a unique view of a hockey game unto itself.