It's certainly possible they will miss. The Los Angeles Kings missed in 2014-15 after winning the Cup twice in three years (and are fifth in the NHL standings with the same core now).
The Penguins have played a lot of hockey over the past two years and look lethargic sometimes, like they did in their 4-0 loss against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday. But then, just like that, they can look like themselves again, like they did in their 4-0 win at the New York Islanders on Friday.
Center Sidney Crosby had four points (one goal, three assists) against the Islanders. Forward Daniel Sprong had two goals. Can Crosby rediscover his form? Can Sprong make an impact as a midseason call-up the way forwards Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary did the past two seasons?
Could the Penguins end up as a wild card and first-round nightmare for a team like, say, the Capitals?