Mailbag: Sabres, Senators as contenders; Dubas' future with Maple Leafs
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
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How long until the Buffalo Sabres are contending in the Eastern Conference or Atlantic Division? -- @wheels8899
Next season.
I spoke with Rasmus Dahlin after Buffalo's 3-2 shootout win against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. The Sabres defenseman talked about how impactful it is for the team to be playing meaningful games in the last week of the regular season.
"This just means that we can compete against any team and we are a playoff team," Dahlin said. "We've been building confidence throughout not only this season but the end of last season. We know we are a playoff team. We've been taking the next step and lately we've been taking another step. It gives us a lot of confidence for sure."
The Sabres have a core in place, finally. The defense is strong, led by Dahlin and Owen Power, along with Mattias Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju. Their forward group is equally as strong with Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens developing into top-six centers, and Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner and Jordan Greenway around them. The third line they've been using with Tyson Jost, J.J. Peterka and Jack Quinn is exciting and hard to play against. Peyton Krebs will be an X-factor for a long time. And, perhaps most importantly, although it's a small sample size, Devon Levi looks and acts like a goalie with real potential to be a No. 1 sooner rather than later. I have long thought the Sabres needed to invest in the goalie market this offseason, that it was the missing piece, but Levi might make that unnecessary. But they will have the cap space and the draft capital to make a big splash in the offseason. General manager Kevyn Adams did not make the big move last season because he wanted to give the core a chance to continue to develop, to see what the Sabres really had. This offseason, the Sabres can add a piece or two to add to what is already in place.
Beyond all of that, I love the way the Sabres are coached. Don Granato's line that he used Tuesday morning, that the Sabres have the "luxury of misery," is an incredible way to look at negatives from their past and use them to create positives now and going forward. They've done that this season. They've built it the right way. They'll start to be a perennial playoff team next season.
Who has more of a playoff mandate next season, the Red Wings or Senators? -- @punmasterrifkin
The Ottawa Senators made a big push in the offseason by acquiring forwards Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat. Giroux has delivered with 78 points (34 goals, 44 assists) in 81 games. DeBrincat has to give Ottawa more than his 66 points (27 goals, 39 assists) and minus-31 rating in 81 games. Nobody with the Senators ever specifically said the playoffs were the goal this season, but those moves pushed them closer and added some pressure to improve so they can realistically believe they can be a playoff team next season. They did and they should. And they also got defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who is under contract for two more seasons after this one, from the Arizona Coyotes before the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline. With a new ownership group expected to eventually take over, the hope for a new arena deal as part of that, and the fact that they had a big improvement in the standings from last season (at least 12 points better with the potential for 14), the Senators need to capitalize on the momentum. The pressure to make the playoffs will intensify in the market.
The Red Wings have been taking the slower approach. They added veteran players last season, bringing in forwards Andrew Copp, David Perron, Olli Maatta and Ben Chiarot. All have made an impact, but in a secondary way. The Red Wings still want to build around Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and eventually Simon Edvinsson and Marco Kasper, two prospects on the rise. They may trade some of their high draft picks to acquire impact players -- they have two in the first round and three in the second round this year -- but there isn't an urgency to do so if the right deal doesn't come along. The Senators have already traded their first-round pick (for Chychrun) and do not currently have a selection in the first three rounds. There's more urgency in Ottawa. The Senators have also seen significant improvement from their young core players like Brady Tkachuk,
Tim Stutzle
, Drake Batherson and Jake Sanderson. The Red Wings have not gotten the same from theirs (Raymond and Seider, in particular).
It's easier to see a path to the playoffs for the Senators than it is for the Red Wings. It's easier to see why the pressure to make it will be higher in Ottawa than Detroit. But we have to see what each team does with its roster in the offseason before we get a true sense of the mandate for both.
You've said the New Jersey Devils have been this season's surprising and most improved team. Who do you predict it will be next season? (I'm liking Ottawa, but that might be an East Coast bias). -- @TrishTheMiddle
First off, what we've seen from the Devils this season, a 24-win and 47-point improvement from last season, is not normal. That's why they're not only the most improved team but the most surprising team this season. We won't see that again next season. I just wanted to get that out of the way before dialing into answering your question.
I already wrote in this mailbag about the Sabres, Senators and Red Wings. They've shown marked improvement this season and should again next season, though I don't think any of it is surprising. So I can't predict any of those teams will be the most improved and/or surprising next season, unless one of them becomes what the Devils are this season. However, I do think the Montreal Canadiens could improve by seven or eight wins next season to become what the Sabres and Senators are this season, a team playing meaningful games late into the season but not good enough in the middle of the season to be able to control its destiny in April.
* Forward Cole Caufield, if healthy, could be a 40-goal scorer, if not a 50-goal scorer. He scored 26 in 46 games this season before his season ending shoulder injury that required surgery.
* Forward Juraj Slafkovsky should benefit from a full offseason of training and an understanding of the NHL game. The 19-year-old rookie, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, played 39 games and had 10 points (four goals, six assists) before his season-ending lower-body injury.
* The Canadiens have to like the progress they've seen from forward
Rafael Harvey-Pinard
(14 goals in 34 games), and defensemen Kaiden Guhle (18 points in 44 games), Jordan Harris (17 points in 65 games) and Johnathan Kovacevic (15 points in 75 games). They look like they could be impactful NHL players for a while.
* Mike Matheson's game has improved, and the defenseman should remain an impact player for Montreal.
* Nick Suzuki should be even more comfortable in his second season as the Canadiens captain. The No. 1 center leads Montreal with 64 points (24 goals, 40 assists) in 80 games.
Kyle Dubas has shoved all his chips into the pot for this playoff run. He sacrificed picks and prospects for a chance to win the Stanley Cup. What will happen if this fails? Will Auston Matthews move on? Will Dubas stay? What gives? Toronto has been through enough. -- @theashcity
Matthews is signed through next season. His future will be a topic, but it will come after a decision is made on Dubas, the Toronto Maple Leafs general manager, who went into this season knowing it could be make a break for him. It's well known that he's in the last year of his contract, that he doesn't have an extension in place, or at least on the books as of yet. It's certainly reasonable from 30,000 feet to think Toronto's success or failure in the playoffs will determine Dubas' fate as the team's general manager. But it's not that simple.
The Maple Leafs as we know them right now, are a good team with Dubas' impact are all over it. He has been with the team for the development, drafting, signing or trading for every player on the team, either as an assistant GM from 2014-18 or as the GM since May 11, 2018. Toronto is fifth in points percentage (.650), third in goals per game (3.49) and 19th in goals against per game (2.94) with Dubas as their general manager. They have played in the postseason every year with Dubas as their GM. The fact is that they have been one of the best teams in the NHL under Dubas' watch; it just hasn't translated into playoff success. That's as much on the coaches and players, particularly the core of Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly, and coaches as it is on Dubas. Everyone takes a share of the blame for Toronto's inability to get out of the first round. And, fairly or not, the playoffs are where people in this business are most critically judged.
Dubas recognized that, and together with his management team and scouts, did some surgery on the Maple Leafs in advance of the trade deadline this season to put them in the best position for playoff success. There was some debate about if the Maple Leafs did too much, but judging from their playoff failures of the past there was an understanding as to why they made six additions; forwards Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty, and defensemen Erik Gustafsson, Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn. Each one of those additions was met with optimism, with the suggestion that Toronto should be more playoff ready and harder to play against. So if the Maple Leafs lose to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference First Round, are we to then just disregard that and pin the blame on Dubas? That seems unreasonable. It could also be reality because optics matter, particularly in Toronto, and it might be challenging for ownership to run it back with zero changes at the highest levels of management if the Maple Leafs falter again. I don't know where this goes with Dubas, but I know it's in the hands of the coaches and players to help give Dubas a clearer picture of his future.
