Mailbag: Playoff hopes for Senators, Red Wings; Stars as Cup contender

Here is the Aug. 17 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Based on what they have done, who do you think is more likely to make the playoffs, the Senators or the Red Wings? -- @punmasterrifkin
That's a tough call because I don't think either is ready for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season, but I like the Ottawa Senators' chances slightly better because of their high-end scoring.
Ottawa's expected top-six forward group of Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk,
Josh Norris
, Drake Batherson and
Tim Stutzle
combined for 367 points (166 goals, 201 assists) in 427 games last season, for per-game averages of 0.39 goals, 0.47 assists and 0.86 points. Each of the six has a chance to score at least 30 goals this season, and Tkachuk, DeBrincat and Norris each could score 40.
The Red Wings are solid up front with a projected top-six forward group of Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Jakub Vrana, Andrew Copp and David Perron. They combined for 317 points (145 goals, 172 assists) in 386 games last season, per-game averages of 0.38 goals, 0.45 assists and 0.82 points.
So, it's close if you just go by those numbers, and it's certainly reasonable to think Raymond, who had 57 points (23 goals, 34 assists) in 82 games as a rookie, will take a big step, and Vrana, who had 19 points (13 goals, six assists) in 26 games, will make a big impact if he stays healthy. But the upside of Senators' top-six is better because of the expected continued growth from Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris and Batherson, plus the additions of Giroux and DeBrincat.
Each team has a solid No. 1 defenseman, Moritz Seider for the Red Wings and Thomas Chabot for the Senators, but depth should be a concern for both. The goaltending is solid on both sides, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg in Ottawa, Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso in Detroit. It's unlikely any of the four will contend for the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie in the NHL, but it should be good enough to make the Senators and Red Wings playoff contenders. But comparing them side by side, it's hard to give either team an edge.
So it goes back to the forwards, and while bottom-six scoring could be a problem for each team, the top-six scoring puts the Senators a notch above the Red Wings at this point.

How far away are the Stars? -- @Diabeto23
Let's assume they get their two key restricted free agents, forward Jason Robertson and goalie Jake Oettinger, signed before training camp begins next month. Provided that happens, I think the Dallas Stars again should be a playoff team, potentially as good as second in the Central Division behind the Colorado Avalanche. It's open behind the defending Stanley Cup champions and the competition should be good between the Stars, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets. The Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes are in the third tier.
All that's to say the Stars are right there, still in their Stanley Cup contention window with forwards Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. They've successfully managed to build a second core behind Seguin (30 years old), Benn (33) and forward Joe Pavelski (38), with an infusion of younger impact forwards like Robertson (23), Roope Hintz (25), Mason Marchment (27), Joel Kiviranta (26) and Denis Gurianov (25).
And they have Miro Heiskanen, 23, leading them at defenseman. He gets up and down the ice as well or better than every other defenseman in the NHL and is a future winner of the Norris Trophy as the League's top defenseman. They'll try to make up for the departure of John Klingberg by giving a full-time roster spot to 20-year-old Thomas Harley, who had four points (one goal, three assists) in 34 games with the Stars last season. Harley was a first-round pick (No. 18) in the 2019 NHL Draft.
The Stars should be in good shape as long as Oettinger is at least as good as he was last season, when he was 30-15-1 with a 2.53 goals-against average and .914 save percentage in 48 games. New coach Peter DeBoer tends to get a lot out of teams early in his tenure. He went to the Stanley Cup Final in his first season with the New Jersey Devils (2011-12) and San Jose Sharks (2016-17) and reached the Western Conference Final in his first season with the Vegas Golden Knights (2019-20), ironically losing to the Stars.

Lots of eyes on the World Juniors and lots of impressive/fun players to watch. Are there any that you think can earn more than a 10-game look THIS season? -- @mikeybox
Mason McTavish
(Anaheim Ducks) and Kent Johnson (Columbus Blue Jackets) are projected to be on opening night rosters and the two 19-year-old forwards with Canada could have staying power if they perform because of depth needs for their respective teams. McTavish, the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, played nine games with the Ducks early last season and had three points (two goals, one assist). He could be their third center behind Trevor Zegras and Ryan Strome. Johnson, the No. 5 pick of the 2021 draft, had three assists in nine games with the Blue Jackets after turning pro following his season at the University of Michigan. He could be a left wing this season, potentially playing as high as the second line behind Johnny Gaudreau.
Sweden defenseman
Simon Edvinsson
has a chance to be a big part of the Detroit Red Wings this season. The 19-year-old, chosen with the No. 6 pick in the 2021 draft, was a finalist for rookie of the year in the Swedish Hockey League last season after he had 19 points (two goals, 17 assists) in 44 games for Frolunda.
The New York Islanders might have a spot open for Finland forward
Aatu Raty
to grab during training camp, but their roster still seems to be in flux, and they could have another free agent signing or two. The 19-year-old was a second-round pick (No. 52) in the 2021 draft and had 40 points (13 goals, 27 assists) in 41 games last season for Jukurit in Liiga, Finland's top men's professional league. Depending on the Islanders' depth chart, he could be in line for a middle-six forward spot.
Forward
Matthew Knies
(Toronto Maple Leafs) and defenseman
Luke Hughes
(New Jersey Devils), two of the top players for the United States, could make the jump to the NHL after completing their college seasons. Knies, a second-round pick (No. 57) in the 2021 draft, is returning to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore season. Hughes, the No. 4 pick of the 2021 draft, is doing the same at the University of Michigan.
Which player is most likely to get traded at the deadline: Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko or Vitali Kravtsov? -- @JonathanNJayne1
At this point I'll say none of them. The New York Rangers are banking on all three being impact players in their top-nine forward group. Even if they're not, there is no rush to move any of them. Lafreniere turns 21 on Oct. 11, opening night for the Rangers against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Madison Square Garden. Kakko is 21 and starting a two-year contract. Kravtsov is 22 and on a one-year contract. All three figure into the Rangers' current and future plans.
But of the three, it wouldn't shock me if at some point Kakko or Kravtsov, if not both, are traded. Lafreniere is untouchable at this point, but Kakko and Kravtsov have to show more growth in their game. Lafreniere did last season and I think there's a good chance he'll start this season at right wing on the top line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Kakko and Kravtsov also will have a chance to earn that position during training camp.
The second-line right wing spot is open as well, which means a chance to play with Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin. There also is the possibility that the Rangers re-unite the "Kid Line" of Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kakko.
The point is they have too much invested in these young players to trade any of them this season unless we're talking about getting a player like Patrick Kane from the Chicago Blackhawks. If that's the case, Kravtsov or Kakko could be a part of the package going Chicago's way. But short of that, I think it's a longshot they're traded.

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