Mailbag: Forsberg's future with Predators, Oveckin's chase of Gretzky

Here is the Dec. 15 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

We see his wizardry every night in Nashville (even on non-scoring plays) but from a national perspective what kind of trade package could Filip Forsberg command at the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline to a contender? -- @ItsGovertime
It depends if we're talking a sign and trade or a straight trade. Forsberg is in the last season of a six-year, $36 million contract and the forward can become an unrestricted free agent after this season. If it's a sign and trade, the price goes up and maybe the Nashville Predators can get an NHL player and a high NHL Draft pick. If he's a straight rental to a contender, it'll be hard to get a impactful NHL player unless it would be to make the NHL salary cap work. The prospect and/or draft picks coming back could be impactful.
That being said, I don't understand why trading him is the right option for the Predators. Why aren't we talking about them as a Stanley Cup contender? Why isn't Forsberg automatically considered a huge piece for them? He's 27 years old, in his prime, well-rounded, and can score. Sign him. Make him a priority. The Predators should be in win-now mode with forwards Matt Duchene,
Ryan Johansen
and Mikael Granlund; defensemen Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm; and goalie Juuse Saros each signed through at least the 2024-25 season. Forsberg should be a part of the core that the Predators are building around with the infusion of exciting young players including forwards Eeli Tolvanen, Yakov Trenin, Philip Tomasino, Tanner Jeannot and
Cody Glass
, defensemen Dante Fabbro, and eventually goalie Iaroslav Askarov.
The bigger question is, does Forsberg want to sign or explore free agency? Even if he wants to explore the market, I'm not sold that the Predators should trade him, especially if they're in the Stanley Cup Playoff race. They could treat Forsberg as their own rental and then look to trade him in the offseason. I think more teams should do that, especially if they believe they're good enough to win in the playoffs.

Do you think Alex Ovechkin will do the thing? -- @whoopoi
Yes. You, too, should think the Washington Capitals left wing will break Wayne Gretzky's NHL record of 894 goals. Ovechkin has given us zero reason to believe otherwise. Will he eventually slow down? Of course, but I also thought Tom Brady would be retired by now and he's 44 and still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Ovechkin, like Brady, is aging well because he knows how to play to the strengths that have made him a legend and rarely, if ever, strays. Ovechkin plays a controlled game with a singular focus of driving offense. He doesn't waste energy.
Ovechkin began this season as a 36-year-old with 730 NHL goals and a five-year, $47.5 million contract he signed with Washington on July 27. He needs to average 33 goals per season over those five seasons to break Gretzky's record by the end of the contract. With 20 goals in 28 games as of Tuesday, he's on pace for 58 goals this season. Let's say he scores 50, he'd need 115 goals to break the record, meaning 29 goals per season for the remaining four years. Let's be conservative and say Ovechkin scores 40 next season, now he's down to needing to average 25 goals in each of the remaining three years of the contract. With Ovechkin showing no signs of slowing down, it's 100 percent reasonable to think he'll break Gretzky's record.

What do you think the percentage is that the NHL players play in the Olympics, and is it an all-go or no-go thing or mixed, meaning will some players decide to go and others won't? -- @jreinitzesq
It's hard to give a percentage because the NHL and NHL Players' Association are still working on gathering and deciphering information before making a decision. We also don't know if or how the NHL schedule will be materially impacted between now and when a decision will be made, likely in early January. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said following the Board of Governors meeting on Friday that the League's participation in the 2022 Beijing Olympics will primarily come down to if the players want to go. But the NHL can withdraw if COVID-19 disruptions force too many games to be postponed prior to the Olympics. It's up to 10 games with the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and Minnesota Wild postponed Tuesday, and the Calgary Flames shut down through Saturday. The Flames have 16 players and three coaches in NHL COVID-19 protocol as of Wednesday. Six Predators players and coach Jon Hynes entered COVID-19 protocol on Wednesday. The New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators had COVID-19 shutdowns prior to the Flames. Boston Bruins forwards Brad Marchand and Craig Smith entered COVID-19 protocol Tuesday, and forward Patrice Bergeron was placed in COVID-19 protocol Wednesday. Islanders forward Mathew Barzal, among others, is also in COVID-19 protocol. The schedule could be impacted enough that the NHL will eventually intervene and make the final decision.
Short of that, the players have to get a lot of information to make the most educated decision. For example, how long will the quarantine be for a positive test in China? I've seen reports of 3-5 weeks. Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid on Tuesday called it a "fluid situation." Remember, players won't be paid for NHL time they miss if they have to quarantine after a positive test at the Olympics.
Commissioner Bettman has been open about the League's reservations regarding Olympic participation in general, but especially with COVID-19 impacting these Olympics. The players have been open about their desire to play in the Olympics, but some have expressed concerns, and Vegas Golden Knights goalie Robin Lehner (Sweden) has said he's not going. If the players choose to attend and the NHL schedule allows for it, my guess is you will see some players join Lehner in backing out for health and safety concerns. But it will be a minority. If the decision is to skip, whether that's the players making the call or the League intervening, there will not be any NHL presence at the Beijing Olympics.
Do you think the New York Rangers are the real deal? -- @DaveyUpper
I think the Rangers are real enough to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I'm uncertain beyond that but willing to give time to formulate a better opinion.
My view of the Rangers hasn't changed as the season has progressed. I picked them to finish third in the Metropolitan Division and I still think that's where they end up, likely behind the Hurricanes and Capitals. The Rangers have to prove they can consistently beat the better teams on their schedule. After a 4-2 loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday, they were 11-0-1 against teams with a sub-.500 points percentage and 7-7-2 against teams above that points percentage. That breakdown shows they're defeating the teams they're technically supposed to defeat and they're average against the rest of the NHL. But 10 teams have a sub-.500 points percentage, which means the Rangers as of now can be viewed as average against the other 68 percent of the league. They have yet to play 10 of the 21 teams (excluding them) that have a plus-.500 points percentage, so that's not exactly an accurate measurement, but it's what we know as of now.
Regardless, average against the better teams and dominant against the weaker teams should be good enough to put them in the playoffs, but it doesn't give me confidence for their chances once they get there. Again, there's a lot of time left, a lot of games and plenty of opponents they haven't faced, so let's revisit this question during the All-Star/Olympic break, when the Rangers will have played at least one game against all but three teams (Pittsburgh Penguins, St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets).