Mailbag: Maple Leafs chances in 1st round; direction of Predators

Here is the Feb. 15 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Is this the year the Toronto Maple Leafs win a round? -- @APisano
Not if they stay status quo through the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline at 3 p.m. ET on March 3. The Maple Leafs are not built right now to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning in a best-of-7 series because the Lightning would have the edge in goaltending, defense and forward depth. Maybe Toronto's high-end forward depth in its top-six group is stronger with Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander, but it's not like Tampa Bay's top three of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point is easy to defend. And even with Matthews and Tavares, I'd still give the Lightning the edge in center depth because of the quality and Stanley Cup Playoff-style play they get from Point, Anthony Cirelli, Nicholas Paul and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. Tampa Bay has the intangibles too, like the understanding of how to win a playoff series. That's, well, kind of important, wouldn't you say? And the best player on the ice is in the most important position and he plays for the Lightning. Yes, I'm talking about goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
So, if you're asking me to handicap it right now, this isn't Toronto's year to win a playoff round. But it can still be. The Maple Leafs must go all in before the deadline to maximize their potential this season, and that means making available their first-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft and top prospect, 20-year-old forward
Matthew Knies
, for a trade or trades that will make them better today. I know general manager Kyle Dubas recently talked about those assets and was hesitant to say they would be included in trades, especially for rentals, but tomorrow might not matter for a lot of the Maple Leafs players and Dubas if they don't win today. That 2023 first-round pick might be an impact player three years down the road. Knies might be in the NHL next season, but will he be an impact player? Hard to say. None of that matters today for the Maple Leafs. Today is the only thing that should matter. Winning this season is possible and they have to be willing to go the extra mile to do it. So if it's defense you need and Vladislav Gavrikov you want, go make that trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets. If you want to improve your center depth by acquiring Ryan O'Reilly from the St. Louis Blues, go make it happen.
They have an advantage in that they know, with all probability, they will be playing the Lightning in the Eastern Conference First Round. The goal is to win that round, so do what you can to position the roster to best match up against the Lightning and take your best shot. If the Maple Leafs win that series, they might not lose this season. They can be that good, that dangerous, but they can't hold back assets because they may become valuable tomorrow. Their value today is all that matters.

Is it worth it for the Nashville Predators to barely make the playoffs (sometimes not), or should they just start gaining draft capital and start a rebuild? How long would you expect that to take since we don't want to waste Juuse Saros, Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg? Prospect pool isn't looking too deep right now. -- @SheWentToJarrod
You can't have it both ways. If you're the Predators, you can't rebuild and still think you're going to maximize the best years out of Saros, Josi and Forsberg. If done properly, rebuilds take 3-4 years in the NHL, if not longer. And you have to hit on a lot of draft picks and trades to make that happen. It's not like the Predators can just toss up their hands and say it's time to rebuild. Their roster construction and contract situation doesn't align with that way of thinking. They have four forwards, three defensemen and Saros all making at least $5 million per season and signed through at least the next two seasons. You don't rebuild when you have eight players signed long term to big contracts, especially when six of the eight are in their early 30s and one of them is your 27-year-old All-Star goalie. The Predators must find a way to win with the team they have in the next 2-3 years, and to do that you have to make the playoffs. It doesn't matter if they barely make it or get in by a wide margin of points. The fact is that getting in is all that matters. The Predators have to do what they can this season to get in or it will be a wasted year for Josi, Forsberg, Saros and others.
Should the Vancouver Canucks go without an official captain next season or choose one already? -- @ellav96
Already? The Canucks have been without a captain for only six games since trading center Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders on Jan. 30. They've played only nine games under coach Rick Tocchet, who took over for Bruce Boudreau on Jan. 22. Vancouver has to get through the rest of this season before it thinks about its next captain and if it should name one for next season. These first nine games under Tocchet and the next 26 are all a trial period to find out more about the players and what they can do, the roles they can fill, leadership included. The Canucks don't know right now who will emerge as a leader beyond this season. They want it to see it from forward Elias Pettersson and defenseman Quinn Hughes, but that has to happen over a longer period of time than just six games without Horvat.
It's too soon to say if Vancouver should go without a captain next season. If Pettersson emerges as the unquestioned leader, then sign him to a long-term contract and give him the 'C'. If it's forward J.T. Miller, give it to him. Same with Hughes. But to name one now would be sacrificing two months and 26 games of information gathering that will be valuable to the Canucks once this season is over.

The Florida Panthers have been a disappointment this season. What's been the major reason? -- @mbbrennan
I think we need to slow down on the usage of the word disappointment because the Panthers' story is not yet finished. They are 11-6-2 since Jan. 3, tied with the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils for the most points in the NHL in that span (24) and their .667 points percentage was tied for sixth. But they are a far cry from where they were last season, when they won the Presidents' Trophy with 122 points, so in that sense they have disappointed, or at least they haven't come close to meeting expectations. There's been a few reasons why.
It starts with goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky has been much better in most of his starts, going 7-2-1 since Jan. 3 with a 2.48 goals-against average and .927 save percentage in 11 games. But he had a 3.32 GAA and .894 save percentage in his first 23 games of the season. Spencer Knight has a 3.16 GAA and .902 save percentage in 20 games (19 starts) and
Alex Lyon
a 3.89 GAA and .892 in his six games. It's hard to win with subpar goaltending, especially on a team that does command the puck as much as Florida does. The Panthers have been noticeably better in the past several weeks and it's no coincidence that Bobrovsky's numbers have improved in that stretch.
Beyond goaltending, Florida has not had the same ability to come back in games as last season, when it allowed the first goal in 38 games and still won 24, and when it had 11 wins after trailing going into the third period. The Panthers are 1-19-1 when trailing after two periods, and 5-16-2 when allowing the first goal.
On top of it all, Florida made some major changes in the offseason, bringing in a new coach (Paul Maurice) and forward Matthew Tkachuk for forward Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar. The goal was to be steadier, less run and gun. It's taken some time but they're getting there, and the results are following. If they continue to get the saves too, it might not be so disappointing after all.
What can the Penguins do realistically at or before the deadline? -- @browthekid
The Pittsburgh Penguins need bottom-six forward depth. They need a third line that can be productive, dangerous. They need their penalty kill to improve. They need goalie Tristan Jarry to be healthy. They might need a better backup to Jarry than they currently have in Casey DeSmith. They need to find a way to get more out of Kasperi Kapanen or at least get something for the forward before the deadline. But I think the Penguins have to be asking themselves if it's going to be worth it to fill any or all of those needs. If they do, does it make them that much closer to being a Stanley Cup contender? Hard to say, which is maybe enough of a reason for most teams to forgo sacrificing future assets like a first-round pick, a top prospect or both to try to make a run at it this season. The Penguins aren't most teams, though. They have a window to try to win the Stanley Cup again and it's very clear how long it will remain open. Sidney Crosby is signed through the 2024-25 season, and Pittsburgh has to do whatever it possibly can to try to win again while No. 87 is still a top player.
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