Mailbag: Golden Knights face roster decisions with healthy Eichel

Here is the Feb. 2 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

With Jack Eichel's return imminent, no one is talking about the unprecedented situation the Vegas Golden Knights find themselves in regarding the cap considering they are still in Cup or bust mode. How will they balance losing key members of their core and keep their identity? Also, if you were a betting man, hey it's Vegas after all, who goes and why would anybody be willing to help? -- @MikeBolino
It's a great question, but people are talking about what the Golden Knights are going to do once it's time to activate Eichel, who carries a $10 million NHL salary cap charge. If everyone is healthy, their dream lineup won't become reality because they will have to clear cap space for the center. But we don't know if full health will be the case, so it's not a lock that the Golden Knights will have to move someone out. If they must, it's going to take a series of moves, because they also will have to activate defenseman Alec Martinez ($5.25 million annual average value).
For starters, the Golden Knights would have 25 players if Eichel and Martinez are activated and no one else goes on injured reserve, 26 if forward Adam Brooks is activated too. They can only have 23, so they'd have to start by trading or waiving some depth players. Waivers is the easiest route, but if they lose the player it thins their depth. If the Golden Knights are still over the $81.5 million salary cap, they would then likely have to move a more impactful player, potentially forwards Evgenii Dadonov or Reilly Smith. Each carries a $5 million cap charge; Smith is in the last season of his contract, and Dadonov is in the second of a three-year contract. Any team with a need for a top-nine forward will be calling Vegas to try to take advantage of the cap situation. If that's still not enough to get under the cap, the Golden Knights would have to make another move.
Even if the Golden Knights have a healthy roster, activating Eichel and Martinez will make them better, but at the price of making their depth thinner.
How close do you think the Ottawa Senators are from being a Stanley Cup Playoff team? I like a lot of their parts. -- @punmasterrifkin
I'll start my answer with another question: When is the goaltending going to be good enough for the Senators to be considered a threat to contend for the playoffs?
Matt Murray has been better of late, going 4-0-2 with a 1.95 goals-against average, .939 save percentage and one shutout in six games since Jan. 13. That's a positive trend for the two-time Stanley Cup winner with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but for now it can't be viewed as anything more than a short-term uptick in his play. He's been inconsistent since being traded to the Senators by the Penguins on Oct. 7, 2020 and signing a four-year, $25 million contract ($6.25 million AAV) with Ottawa two days later. He must show consistency for the rest of this season for me to believe he's the answer. The Senators need Murray to be, because though his contract carries a $6.25 million salary cap charge, he is owed $15 million in actual salary; $7 million next season and $8 million in 2023-24, making him even harder to trade, especially if he's also inconsistent.
We're in agreement with liking a lot of the pieces they already have. Tim Stutzle is playing more and more like a veteran forward each day despite being 20 years old. He looks like he's going to be a multifaceted threat, a scorer who doesn't give an inch in the checking and defensive game. That's promising. So, too, are Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Alex Formenton, each a legitimate top-nine forward. The Senators have a good foundation up front, especially with Tyler Boucher, the No. 10 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, eventually coming. Thomas Chabot is a solid, minute-munching No. 1 defenseman, Erik Brannstrom has potential to be a solid NHL defenseman, Artem Zub fits in any top-six group, and Lassi Thomson, the No. 19 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, is getting NHL playing time, a good sign for him and the Senators. Jake Sanderson, the No. 5 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, will be playing for Ottawa soon. Defenseman could eventually be a strength.
There's no question the Senators are building toward something bigger and better, but until they get consistent goaltending it's going to be a struggle. When it happens, that's when they can join the playoff conversation.

Who makes the playoffs out of the Pacific Division? -- @ricktheyounger
Here we go with a prediction question that will get me in trouble, but I'll bite anyway because it's a great conversation piece.
1. Golden Knights
2. Calgary Flames
3. Edmonton Oilers
4. Anaheim Ducks (maybe)
The Golden Knights are a lock. Max Pacioretty returned for a 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers on Jan. 27 after the forward missed 10 games after wrist surgery. They are going to get Eichel and Martinez in the lineup, and that will help give them separation in a tight division.
The Flames and Oilers will have at least four games in hand on every team in the division entering the All-Star break. Calgary will play seven makeup games in what was previously the Olympic window (Feb. 7-23). They're all at home, and four are against teams not in a playoff spot (Seattle Kraken, New York Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, Winnipeg Jets). They're one of the top defensive teams in the NHL (second with 2.49 goals-against per game) and they have good special teams. That should have enough.
The Oilers will play nine games in what was the Olympic break, five at home and four against teams not in a playoff spot (Chicago Blackhawks, Islanders, San Jose Sharks, Jets). They play the three California teams in that stretch. They have issues that need to be addressed (goaltending), but they've been better of late (4-0-1 in their past five) and it will help them to keep going. I think they will eventually address their goaltending.
Of the three California teams, I like the Ducks the most. John Gibson is an elite No. 1 NHL goalie and being in the playoff race will continue to drive him through the next three months. The Ducks have the best special teams compared to the Los Angeles Kings and Sharks, and I can see that being the difference. I'd like to see the Ducks have more sustained offense, better possession time in the offensive zone, but they have quick-strike capability.
The problem is the team that finishes fourth in the division is no lock for the playoffs, not with the Dallas Stars and Jets in contention from the Central Division. That's why I put a maybe next to the Ducks, but I'm pretty secure with the top three right now. Let's see how it shakes out after the Flames and Oilers play their makeup games.
I reserve the right to change my picks.

Will Anton Lundell get serious consideration for the Calder Trophy or has Trevor Zegras already won it? -- @BenKurzman
Zegras, the Ducks forward, is not a lock for the award given to the NHL rookie of the year as voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers' Association. Yes, Lundell, the 20-year-old Panthers forward, will get consideration if he continues to play the way he's been playing. He has scored 32 points (10 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games and was named NHL Rookie of the Month for January.
Lundell's five assists in an 8-4 win against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday were worthy of a spotlight with his linemates, Mason Marchment (two goals, four assists) and Sam Reinhart (three goals, one assist). It's not shocking that Lundell had a game like that with the way he has been playing: He scored 20 points (seven goals, 13 assists) in his previous 23 games. Lundell leads rookies in scoring since Dec. 2 with 25 points (seven goals, 18 assists) in 24 games. He spent the first quarter of the season figuring out the NHL while still getting playing time (16:41 per game in his first 22 games). The Finland-born forward now understands what he can do and how he can do it. He's not tasked with being a front-line scorer, with forwards Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov insulating him.
Lundell is getting serious consideration in any Calder discussions. Keep up what he's doing, and he might win it.
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