Mailbag: Stanley Cup favorites approaching midseason; Capitals injuries

Here is the Jan. 4 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Of the top teams in the NHL with an open window, which are your picks to make a deep run/win the Stanley Cup this year? My immediate thought goes to the Stars and Hurricanes as front-runners with Boston up there too? -- @zachh88888
My answer depends on what you're asking, because there are two topics at play: Teams that are the favorite this season and teams that are favorites now and built to be for the next several seasons because their championship window is expected to be open for a while.
The Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes fit into the second category, favorites this season and for several more seasons with their way their depth chart and contracts line up. The Hurricanes will have to re-sign forward Sebastian Aho, who is their most important player. He has one season remaining on his contract after this season, but I have zero doubt they'll get that done well in advance of him being able to become an unrestricted free agent. The Stars contract situation is even better, with most of their core players locked up through 2024-25. Forwards Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, and defenseman Miro Heiskanen, are all signed long term. Both should be contenders for a long time.
The Pittsburgh Penguins kept their window open by re-signing forward Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang in the offseason. Sidney Crosby is signed through 2024-25 and it feels like the Penguins have until then to win the Stanley Cup again. The Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers should be in a good position to stay contenders for the next few seasons too.
The Bruins are in the window is now and let's worry about what's ahead situation. So much depends on center Patrice Bergeron. The 37-year-old captain is their heartbeat. When he signed a one-year contract Aug. 8, you just felt that everything would be OK this season. It obviously has been. The Bruins are the best team in the NHL. But Bergeron's future beyond this season is in doubt. Could he contemplate retirement again? If he leaves, it changes the Bruins regardless of what they do with forward David Pastrnak, who is in the last season of a six-year contract. Boston's defense and goaltending is set for a while, but Bergeron is the key. And, obviously, a plan for post-Bergeron life in Boston is essential.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are also in the window is right now situation. They can make a deep run this season. The Maple Leafs would be a terrifying opponent in the Stanley Cup Playoffs if they ever get out of the first round, something they haven't done since 2004. I can see them going all the way if they finally clear that hurdle, but forwards John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and Calle Jarnkrok, and defenseman Morgan Rielly, are their only players signed beyond next season. Auston Matthews' contract expires after next season. The majority of their depth forwards are pending UFAs and general manager Kyle Dubas doesn't have a contract beyond this season. If it's another first-round bust, we could be looking at some significant changes in Toronto, so it's about this season and this season only for the Maple Leafs.

Which teams have best weathered long-term injuries to their top players? I just read that the Capitals' John Carlson is out, maybe until close to the end of the regular season. -- @TrishTheMiddle
The top answer is the Washington Capitals, who should be in my answer above in the window is right now and let's not look ahead category. But the Capitals are my top answer for this question for more reasons than just the loss of Carlson. In fact, I could argue that they haven't yet had to really weather that because they've so far only had to play four games without the defenseman since he was struck in the right side of the face with a shot in a 4-1 win against the Winnipeg Jets on Dec. 23. Carlson remains out indefinitely. The Capitals have not issued a timetable for his return. It's just another injury to throw on top of a big pile of them that they've been weathering this season. Nicklas Backstrom (hip) and Tom Wilson (ACL surgery) haven't played yet. Both forwards are skating and the Captials said Wednesday they each could return in a matter of days, but won't play Thursday in Columbus. Connor Brown had ACL surgery on his right knee and the forward is out the rest of the season. Forward Carl Hagelin is out indefinitely with a left hip problem. Forward T.J. Oshie missed six games with an upper-body injury before returning Tuesday, and missed 11 games with a lower-body injury earlier in the season. They had 249 man games lost to injury entering play Tuesday. But the Capitals are still right in the thick of the playoff race and they've been one of the best teams in the NHL for the past month. That's weathering the storm of injuries.
I have to give credit to the Bruins too because of everything they were dealing with entering the season. They did not have forward Brad Marchand (surgery on both hips), and defensemen Charlie McAvoy (left shoulder surgery) and Matt Grzelcyk (right shoulder surgery) available when the season began. McAvoy missed the first 13 games. Marchand sat the first seven, and eight of the first nine. Grzelcyk missed the first four. The Bruins, who have had some other injuries along the way, albeit nothing major, are the best team in the NHL at 29-4-4, on pace right now for 64 wins, which would break the NHL record for most in a single season shared by the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings and 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning (62 apiece). They are 19-0-3 at home.
We expect to see the Avalanche in a playoff position, which they are not as of Wednesday. But the fact that they're 19-14-3 and right on the bubble speaks to the level of depth and coaching that the defending Stanley Cup champions have because they've been besieged by injuries to so many key players who played a role in their run last season. Forward Gabriel Landeskog hasn't played all season because of offseason knee surgery and he's nowhere close to returning, coach Jared Bednar said. Darren Helm made his season debut in a 3-2 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday. The forward had adductor surgery in November. Defenseman Bowen Byram (lower body) has missed 26 straight games. Defenseman Josh Manson (lower body) has missed 15 straight. Forward Valeri Nichushkin has missed 21 games this season, including the past four with an ankle injury. Somehow the Avalanche went 6-3-2 without center Nathan MacKinnon from Dec. 7-29. The Avalanche have used an NHL-high 38 players this season, including 25 forwards.
With Seattle hosting the Winter Classic next year, is the decision to have Vegas as the opponent instead of Vancouver more of a ratings thing or rather two good teams playing each other in the same division? You would think Vancouver is closer and more logical. -- @VLBBalong875
There are a couple of factors for this.
1. The Winter Classic is typically played between two teams that are based in the United States. Of the 14 Winter Classic games, two have featured a Canada-based team. In 2016, the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Bruins 5-1 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. In 2014, the Maple Leafs won 3-2 in a shootout against the Red Wings at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. But those two games featured Original Six teams, longtime rivals with significant history. The Vancouver Canucks are certainly geographic rivals with the Seattle Kraken, but there is no history with the two teams yet, so there is nothing to celebrate.
2. Putting the Kraken against the Vegas Golden Knights is an ode to what's new in the NHL. The Golden Knights came into the NHL as the 31st team in 2017-18. The Kraken became the 32nd team last season.
3. Ratings matter and putting Seattle and Vancouver in the same game would be making it a game strictly about the Pacific Northwest. I'm sure the region will be celebrated as part of the show and décor, but it is a national game that requires national exposure, which it will get with Vegas as part of the show.
Will we get a Rangers-Devils Winter Classic? -- @goalymatt
I'd be a fool to say it will never happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. They played against each other at Yankee Stadium in the 2014 NHL Stadium Series, so we've already seen this matchup in an outdoor game. The NHL also had the Rangers in the 2018 Winter Classic at Citi Field, home of the New York Mets. Neither Yankee Stadium nor Citi Field is iconic enough for the NHL to want to go back before utilizing other venues. Fenway Park is iconic enough, which is why the NHL has held the Winter Classic there twice. Wrigley Field is too. I can see the NHL going back there. And MetLife Stadium, the other main option in the New York market, is almost impossible to use for a Winter Classic with two NFL teams playing there. The NHL took over Fenway Park on Dec. 18 and the Winter Classic wasn't until Jan. 2. Imagine asking the NFL to keep both the New York Jets and New York Giants from playing home games for that long. It's not realistic. On top of everything, the NHL doesn't want to limit the Winter Classic to one market even one as big as New York. That doesn't make sense.
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