Mailbag: Lehner's future in Vegas; playoff chances for last-place teams
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
© Zak Krill/Getty Images
With Logan Thompson and Adin Hill performing well so far, along with Thompson's low salary cap hit the next three seasons, does Vegas try to move Robin Lehner this offseason? -- @GLaSnoST9
The answer is yes, but a couple points on this one:
1. It's too early to say if the Thompson/Hill goalie tandem is good enough to lead the Vegas Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup championship. It has been strong so far with Thompson's .934 save percentage and Hill's .925 entering Tuesday, two big reasons why the Golden Knights are off to the best start in the NHL this season at 11-2-0. But between them they have 94 career NHL starts, including 28 for Thompson. I need to see more, a lot more. And that's what this season will offer, because Lehner isn't coming back after having offseason hip surgery. Thompson and Hill will get a chance to prove if they can handle it, which leads me to my second point…
2. Trading Lehner is absolutely something the Golden Knights will entertain, but with realistic expectations. After this season, he will have two years remaining on a contract that carries a $5 million NHL salary cap charge. And he's coming off major hip surgery. To trade him, it's possible the Golden Knights will have to either retain salary or take on salary in return. I don't see how it can be a 100 percent cap clearance. But it's a move the Golden Knights will look into, especially if Thompson and Hill prove themselves throughout the season.
3. Let's not forget that Hill is in the final year of his contract and can become an unrestricted free agent after this season. If he plays well enough, he could price himself out of Vegas, and the Golden Knights will be looking for another goalie, particularly if they find a suitable trade for Lehner. If healthy, Lehner could be that other goalie. I think Vegas would prefer to not have a $5 million backup, assuming Thompson, who is signed through the 2024-25 season with an average annual value of $766,667 proves his worthiness as a starter through the course of this season, but it's an option that is on the table.
Of the four teams currently in last place in their respective divisions (Ottawa, Columbus, San Jose and St. Louis), do you see one team (or more) turning it around and making the playoffs? Any other team near the bottom (Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Arizona, Montreal)? -- @TrishTheMiddle
Let's deal with the eight teams you brought up, starting with the first four, or, in this case, the last four. I'll go no on the Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks making the playoffs, and maybe on the St. Louis Blues and Ottawa Senators.
My first thought is to say that the Blues will turn it around after a 3-7-0 start and find their way, but they have shown me very little to say that will happen. I get that they're supposed to be good, supposed to be a hard team to play against, supposed to have quality goaltending and a strong penalty kill. But they have had none of those things this season. It's too early to say they can't turn it around. They've played 11 games. Let's see where they're at after they've played their 20th game of the season on Nov. 25.
I still believe the Senators will be in a fight for a playoff spot deep into March, but their struggles now do not surprise me. Even with the additions of forwards Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat, and goalie Cam Talbot, who is now healthy, they are still a young team that doesn't have a deep defense. And losing center Josh Norris to a shoulder injury hurts. That's a top-six player out of the lineup until at least he's reevaluated in January. The good news is he doesn't need surgery; the bad news is he's not returning any time soon. That they're allowing 3.45 goals per game, struggling on the penalty kill and in the bottom 10 in shots against per game is not surprising. I figured they would be a team that had to outscore its defensive issues early in the season and that's been a struggle. But they will learn and grow. They should get better. But I didn't think they were a playoff team to start, and I obviously don't think so now either with a record of 4-7-0.
Of the other four, I have to assume that at some point the Pittsburgh Penguins will start to turn and burn, but if they don't clean up their defense it won't happen. Mike Sullivan is arguably the best coach in the NHL, or at least in the top five, so I'll still air on the side of the Penguins (5-6-2) figuring it out. The Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes and Montreal Canadiens are not playoff teams, but they will be spoilers. They're going to ruin the season of at least one team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. There is zero pressure on the Ducks, Coyotes and Canadiens to make the playoffs this season. Teams with zero pressure can be the most dangerous come March and early April.
Is the NHL becoming the NBA? Average goals per season is up. If you want an NBA game, you notice that it's mostly about offense. Is this trend spilling over into the NHL? Active, puck moving defensemen are a mainstay in most lineups. Will this continue? -- @theashcity
This is an interesting and astute observation. I can't say the NHL is becoming the NBA, but I see the comparison and it holds water. Scoring is up in the NHL, just as it is in the NBA. The average goals per game in the NHL last season was 6.3, the most since 1995-96 (also 6.3). The NBA has been over 110 points per game per team in the past four seasons. It hasn't been that way in the NBA since the mid-1980s, and prior to that the 1960s and early 1970s. I think the improved three-point shooting and the emphasis of taking that shot is a big reason for the scoring increase in the NBA. There is no comparison for that in the NHL. But the NHL was averaging 6.42 goals per game in 195 games this season entering an 11-game Tuesday. The NBA is again over 112 points per game per team. In the NHL, eight players had at least 100 points last season, the most since 12 hit that mark in 1995-96. Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews scored 60 goals, becoming the first United States-born player to hit the mark and the first player to do it in a decade (Steven Stamkos, 2011-12). Four players scored at least 50 goals, the most in 16 years. Seventeen scored at least 40, the most in 26 years. I could keep going, but you get the point. The NHL had a scoring bonanza last season and I do not see it stopping.
As Arizona Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong told me in this week's
Sitting Down With
, teams are studying offense and finding new ways to score, using analytics as a guiding tool to create habits that will lead to goals. I believe the crop of young defensemen in the NHL is making a huge difference, players like Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche), Quinn Hughes (Vancouver Canucks), Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power (Buffalo Sabres), and others. But to me it's more about all the skilled skaters who have come into the NHL in the past five years and the ones who will be moving forward. They've all been developing their skill for years with skill coaches, skill camps and the like. And they're being encouraged to flaunt their skill and try new things. The NHL was too rigid in the past. It's not anymore. It's not the NBA, where in my mind the individual shines over the team, but the individuals are shining in the NHL more now, at least in my opinion. It's not going to change because this is what the young players know. They'll grow and more will come in, more skill that will be encouraged to come out.
You touched on tech last week so here's a tech-based question. When will the NHL use it for checking whether a goal is touched with a high stick or not? It's black and white and easily done. Loads of marginal calls in the first month. -- @martmonk
The NHL reviews all goals to determine if they crossed the line in a legal manner. That includes goals scored off what might be a high stick (puck touched above the crossbar). Every single goal is reviewed in the NHL Situation Room in Toronto. Goals scored off a potential high stick are not part of the coaches challenge rule, so the review is initiated by the Situation Room.
If by tech you mean something that doesn't already exist in the NHL, like chips in the stick to determine if it is above the crossbar, that is another issue altogether. Using chips in the stick as an example would be difficult to do because of the various equipment companies that make and produce the sticks in the NHL. There's CCM, Bauer, Warrior and Easton to name some of the bigger and most popular ones. You'd have to develop the technology and get all of them on board to use it in their sticks. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I will tell you that's a lot of red tape to go through to get it done, and that's before you even have the tech available.
