Mailbag: Ovechkin's goal total for Capitals, future of Jets core

Here is the Oct. 5 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Alex Ovechkin is 114 goals away from Wayne Gretzky's record and he scored 50 goals last season. How many goals does he score this season, thus inching him closer to the record?-- @nyrprpokemon
Ovechkin turned 37 on Sept. 17. Gordie Howe and Johnny Bucyk are the only players in NHL history to score at least 40 goals in a season after they had turned 37. Ovechkin became the oldest player to score 50 goals last season. Why would he slow down now? He's in great shape. Since the Capitals were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs last season, he's had a long offseason to train, a full offseason to do everything he normally does. He had that before last season too and he scored 50 goals. There's no doubt in my mind he can do it again. But I'll be conservative and say 45 goals for Ovechkin this season.
Ovechkin has 780 NHL goals. I think he'll become the third player to get to 800 and he'll do that before Jan. 1. That means he'll score 20 goals in Washington's first 39 games. The Capitals' schedule is favorable with three sets of back-to-backs (Oct. 12-13, Nov. 25-26, Dec. 22-23) and 30 of 39 games in the Eastern time zone. Ovechkin will improve his pace as the playoff push goes on, which means 25 goals in the last 43 games is attainable. He needs to average 28.5 goals per season in the last four years of his contract to catch Gretzky. If he scores 45 this season, he'll be 69 goals away, meaning an average of 23 goals per season.
Ovechkin will retire as the NHL's all-time leading goal-scorer.

Is this a make-or-break year for the core of the Winnipeg Jets?-- @punmasterrifkin
It has that feeling, especially with the Jets having stripped the captaincy from forward Blake Wheeler. It might work for the Jets to give more responsibility to forwards Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Pierre-Luc Dubois. Connor, who is 26 years old, is signed for four more seasons, including this one. Ehlers, also 26, is signed for three seasons. Dubois, 25, can be a restricted free agent after this season. If it all works out, they're three huge pieces in the Jets' current and future plans. Wheeler, 36, is signed through next season. He's a big part of what they can be this season, but he's not a huge part of their future. And that's part of the reason why it's make-or-break for Winnipeg's current core.
If the Jets miss the playoffs this season, or make it and go one round and out, it's reasonable to believe a shakeup will follow. Wheeler, forward Mark Scheifele and goalie Connor Hellebuyck will each have one year remaining on their contracts after this season with unrestricted free agency looming for them all. The Jets could try to get ahead of things and trade them all, which would essentially blow up the core, especially if Dubois doesn't re-sign. But if the Jets have a special season, running it back next season, even if Wheeler, Scheifele and Hellebuyck are on expiring contracts, becomes a real possibility.
Who will be more successful this season, the Detroit Red Wings or the Ottawa Senators? Both look primed to be dangerous assuming Cam Talbot is healthy in the coming weeks.-- @theashcity
It'll be the Senators in a close finish, but neither will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Ottawa won the offseason by signing forward Claude Giroux and acquiring forward Alex DeBrincat and Talbot in separate trades. The Senators announced Monday that Talbot will be out 5-7 weeks because of an upper-body injury. Despite that news, there is an excitement level about them in Ottawa that the city hasn't felt in a long time. The Senators are better and they're dangerous even without Talbot at the start of the season. Anton Forsberg had a .917 save percentage in 46 games last season. He can handle the No. 1 job until Talbot returns. The Red Wings also had a strong offseason, signing forwards Andrew Copp and David Perron, defensemen Ben Chiarot and Olli Maatta, and acquiring goalie Ville Husso in a trade with the St. Louis Blues.
The Senators, though, have more high-end skill, the potential to score more goals, particularly with DeBrincat, a 41-goal-scorer last season with the Chicago Blackhawks. The Red Wings don't have a 40-goal scorer. The Senators will have Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk as the forwards on one power play unit; that leaves Giroux and DeBrincat on the other unit. That's depth right there for a power play that should be better than 19.3 percent, which it was last season, ranking 20th in the NHL. The Red Wings are better up front with Copp and Perron joining Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana in what should be the top-six forward group. But the Red Wings' firepower doesn't match what the Senators have.
The biggest question for the Senators is on defense. But I'll argue that is also the biggest question for the Red Wings. Ottawa has Thomas Chabot leading its back end. Detroit has Moritz Seider. Each is excellent, but Chabot is 25 years old, a veteran of 313 NHL games. He's been a No. 1 defenseman for four seasons and leads the NHL in ice time per game in the past three (26:09). Seider won the Calder Trophy as NHL rookie of the year last season. But he's 21 and is new to being a No. 1. The Senators aren't deep behind Chabot, but Jake Sanderson, the No. 5 selection in the 2020 NHL Draft, has the potential this season to be what Seider was for the Red Wings last season. Detroit has Simon Edvinsson, the No. 6 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, but Sanderson is closer to being an impact NHL player and will help Ottawa more this season.
Can the Buffalo Sabres make any noise in the Eastern Conference this season?-- @pdressel72
They'll make noise if they can establish a baseline of consistency, which has been their biggest struggle in recent seasons. But I have reservations about the goaltending tandem of Eric Comrie and Craig Anderson. We can safely assume that the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs should, barring a disaster, be the top three teams in the Atlantic Division. Now put Comrie and Anderson against Ottawa's tandem of Talbot and Forsberg, and Detroit's tandem of Husso and Alex Nedejlkovic. It doesn't match up and that's the biggest reason why the Sabres won't be able to find their way into the playoffs. But without question they will make noise and Buffalo fans should be optimistic about where their hockey team is headed. The future is bright. The Sabres should be better than the 75-point team they were last season. The discrepancy between the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference and the bottom eight will shrink, which means it won't take 100 points to get into the postseason as it did in the East last season. But you'll need to have in the mid-90s and the Sabres, with their goaltending, won't get there.

Which three teams (more or less) do you believe have an aging core and have the window closing on their chance at winning the Cup?-- @TrishTheMiddle
I'll amend your question to say, "have the window closing on their chance at winning the Cup AGAIN," because my answer is the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins. They have combined to win five Stanley Cup championships since 2009, when the Penguins won the first of three with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.
The only players left from Boston's core when it won the Stanley Cup in 2011 are centers Patrice Bergeron, 37, David Krejci, 36, and Brad Marchand, 34, but they make up the aging part of the Bruins' core that has the championship pedigree. The Bruins have players in their mid-to-late 20s like forwards David Pastrnak, 26, and Jake DeBrusk, 25, and defensemen Charlie McAvoy, 24, Brandon Carlo, 25, Matt Grzelyck, 28, and Hampus Lindholm, 28, who are key parts of the core, but it's hard to imagine the Bruins being the same without Bergeron. He's playing on a one-year contract and already contemplated retirement after last season. When he goes, the leadership group changes, which could create an identity shift too.
The Penguins are built behind Crosby, Malkin and Letang, the three players who were part of all three of their recent Stanley Cup championships (2009, 2016, 2017). Crosby and Letang are each 35, Malkin is 36. Letang signed a six-year contract and Malkin a four-year contract in the offseason, and Crosby is signed for three more seasons and that's the window for the Penguins to win the Cup again.
Except for forward Tom Wilson, who is 28, Washington's core players are all 30 or older. Add to that 34-year-old center Nicklas Backstrom's uncertain playing future because of a hip problem and the Capitals' window to win the Cup again after taking it in 2018 appears to be barely cracked open.