Mailbag: Biggest challenge to Avalanche; most improved teams

Here is the Sept. 28 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Who is the biggest threat to the Avs in the Central? -- @punmasterrifkin
I still think it's the St. Louis Blues with stick taps to the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars as well. But for now, it's the Blues at the top of the list of the teams that pose the biggest challenge to the Colorado Avalanche for first in the Central Division and, eventually, in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Blues have a championship pedigree built from winning the Stanley Cup in 2019, with forwards Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas and Ivan Barbashev, defensemen Colton Parayko and Robert Bortuzzo, and goalie Jordan Binnington, remaining from the Cup-winning team. Forward Noel Acciari and defenseman Torey Krug played for the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final against the Blues, and forward Brandon Saad and defenseman Nick Leddy each won the Cup with the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blues have a lot of experience and their core, which also features forwards Pavel Buchnevich (76 points last season) and Jordan Kyrou (75), and defenseman Justin Faulk, is talented, skilled and deep.
The Blues have been eliminated by the Avalanche in the playoffs the past two seasons, a sweep in the 2021 Stanley Cup First Round and a six-game loss in the Western Conference Second Round last season. They know what they're up against. No surprises. They also, at least on paper, have better goaltending. I would take Binnington and what we know of him as a No. 1 ahead of over Alexandar Georgiev and what we still need to learn about him as a No. 1. St. Louis can still play a hybrid style of tough and skill as well as any team in the NHL. The Blues win with puck control and their power play is usually effective. If they can keep their penalty kill in the top 10 (it was fifth at 84.1 percent last season after ranking 25th at 77.8 percent in 2020-21) they will challenge for first place all season.

What is your sense regarding which teams improved themselves the most this offseason? Are the new netminders in Toronto, Colorado and Edmonton likely to tip the scales either way? -- @jreinitzesq
The Ottawa Senators had the best offseason of any team by acquiring forwards Alex DeBrincat (trade) and Claude Giroux (free agent), and goalie Cam Talbot (trade), and signing forwards Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris to eight-year contracts. Ottawa's defensemen still give me pause after Thomas Chabot. If we're going to criticize an area of the Senators it's on the back end, and it's the main reason why I don't think they're going to be a playoff team. But if the defense is better than I am giving it credit for now, they will challenge for a playoff spot after missing by 27 points last season. I don't think it's going to take 100 points to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference like last season, the first time all eight teams qualified with at least 100 points. The Senators might be good enough to get at least 90 this season. It'll put them in the mix.
The Seattle Kraken might be the most improved team in the West after finishing last in the Pacific Division with 60 points in their inaugural season. They improved their depth scoring with forwards Andre Burakovsky and Oliver Bjorkstrand and the likely full-time additions of centers Matty Beniers, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, and Shane Wright, the No. 4 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. Seattle should be better offensively than last season, when it tied the Chicago Blackhawks for 28th with 2.60 goals per game and was 29th on the power play (14.6 percent). Goalie Phillip Grubauer must be better than last season, when he was 18-31-5 with a 3.16 goals-against average, .889 save percentage and two shutouts in 55 games (54 starts). Part of that is the Kraken's need to be better defensively overall, especially on the PK (74.9 percent, tied with Vancouver Canucks for 30th). But they are in a slow build, and they made enough strides with their roster to potentially be an 80-point team or better. Eighty points is a 20-point improvement from last season.
If Jack Campbell is healthy, he gives the Edmonton Oilers a better chance to win in the playoffs. I think it's the same situation as Darcy Kuemper in Colorado last season. Campbell, like Kuemper, is not an elite No. 1, but he's reliable and can come up with big games. He needs some insulation, but he's rarely, if ever, going to be the Oilers' biggest concern.
The Avalanche are hoping for the same thing from Georgiev. Be serviceable. Make the saves you're supposed to make. And make some of the saves that help your team occasionally steal a win.
It's different with the Toronto Maple Leafs, because their biggest question mark is Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray as the goalie tandem. The Maple Leafs will be good enough to be a playoff team, even with subpar goaltending, because they are one of the best offensive teams in the NHL. But it's the playoffs that matter. Their success or failures there will have consequences on the direction they go after this season. And they're not going anywhere in the playoffs with subpar goaltending.
Do you see Vitali Kravtsov as a player who has a legitimate chance at the Calder Trophy? He has been penciled in as the second line right wing with Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin. If he stays, it can result in a great season coupled with mentorship from Panarin. -- @LeszekGronowski
It's aggressive to say Kravtsov will be in the running for the Calder Trophy, given to the NHL rookie of the year, after what the New York Rangers forward has displayed since being the No. 9 pick in the 2018 NHL Draft.
Kravtsov's talent is undeniable. The Rangers want to believe in him, which is why he agreed to a one-year contract June 13, but he hasn't done it at the NHL level or on the smaller North American ice surface yet. He has four points (two goals, two assists) in 20 NHL games. He had 15 points (six goals, nine assists) in 39 American Hockey League games. His success has been limited to what he has done in Russia, including 22 goals in 68 games for Traktor Chelyabinsk in the Kontinental Hockey League the past two seasons, but last season was limited to 34 games combined between the KHL regular season and playoffs. It wasn't a great development year for the 22-year-old who last season refused to report to Hartford of the AHL after getting cut from training camp. He is getting an early opportunity to play with two high-end NHL forwards in Panarin and Trocheck. If he can stay on that line, or at least in the Rangers' top-nine forward group, he will have a chance to put up some points and play his way into the Calder race.
Any sense whether David Pastrnak has interest in re-signing with the Bruins or if they plan to re-sign him? Even with a good year this year, the sense has got to be that David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron won't be around for much of his next contract. -- @IzzyWeiss
Pastrnak has interest in re-signing with the Boston Bruins. He expressed that two weeks ago, when he told reporters in Boston that he loves the city, feels it's his home and called it an honor to wear the Bruins jersey. He also said with a new coach, Jim Montgomery, and a full season before he has to figure out his next move, it's not a rush to get something done. Pastrnak has one season remaining on a six-year, $40 million contract ($6.67 average annual value) and can become an unrestricted free agent. Of course, the Bruins and their fans want Pastrnak locked up long term, but it's smart for the 26-year-old right wing to wait it out and have some patience, especially to see how he meshes with Montgomery. He knows he can't play with Bergeron, Krejci and Brad Marchand forever, but he's a star player in his own right and the Bruins will have to build around him if they can sign him long term.

Besides sorting out the bottom six forwards, what else are the Penguins focusing on during camp? -- @TopesWriter
The Pittsburgh Penguins have three new defensemen who could be in their top six, offseason additions Jeff Petry, Ty Smith and Jan Rutta. They traded Mike Matheson to the Montreal Canadiens and John Marino to the New Jersey Devils, and still have Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman and
Pierre-Olivier Joseph
. Ironing out the defense group, who is in the top six, who fits with who and righty-lefty combos are a big part of the camp with so much turnover in the group.
You mentioned the bottom-six forwards, which is a big part of it. The Penguins have the potential for solid depth scoring with a third line of Jeff Carter as the center with Danton Heinen and Kasperi Kapanen. But Kapanen scored 11 goals in 79 games last season, not enough for a player with his skill. The 26-year-old has a lot to prove, which he won't be able to do in training camp but it's where it has to start.
Sorting out the right wings for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is also key. Rickard Rakell is getting an early opportunity with Crosby. Bryan Rust is getting that chance with Malkin. Rust has skated a lot with Crosby in the past few seasons.
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