Mailbag: Rangers division favorite, chances of Avalanche repeat

Here is the Sept. 7 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Where do you see the New York Rangers finishing in the Metropolitan Division? -- @thewriteben
First place.
The Rangers have the best goaltending in the division. You can argue that alone should be enough considering they also rank well in scoring, special teams, defense and coaching, but it's the goaltending that separates New York from the other seven teams in the division.
Igor Shesterkin is not a one-season wonder. He's the present generational Rangers goalie following in the footsteps of Henrik Lundqvist, who followed Mike Richter. When the Rangers struggle in their own zone, Shesterkin bails them out. When they struggle to score, Shesterkin wins them a 1-0 or 2-1 game. If the power play is slumping, the penalty kill won't because of Shesterkin. He's the biggest difference-maker in the NHL. Yes, the Rangers have a top-10 center in Mika Zibanejad, a 50-goal scorer in Chris Kreider, a sublime playmaker in Artemi Panarin, a Norris Trophy winner in Adam Fox and an old-school physical defenseman in Jacob Trouba, but it's Shesterkin's team and there isn't another in the Metropolitan Division that can say that about the player it has at the most important position on the ice.
I hear you, New York Islanders fans. You're screaming Ilya Sorokin, yelling his name in my direction. And you have a point. He has a chance to be in the running for the Vezina Trophy too. But the Islanders do not have the same high-powered offense or top six at defenseman as the Rangers or Carolina Hurricanes, who finished first in the division last season and will finish second this season. Carolina's one issue is center depth after losing Vincent Trocheck in free agency to New York and did not replace him, which puts pressure on Paul Stastny, 36, or Jesperi Kotkaniemi, 22, to deliver in that spot. It's a concern.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will be strong again. The Washington Capitals will battle for a Stanley Cup Playoff spot, though I'm not sure they can clinch a berth this season. The Columbus Blue Jackets and New Jersey Devils improved on paper in the offseason. But it's the Rangers' division to win. They have Shesterkin. The other seven teams do not.
Avalanche repeat? -- @Mister_Teague
If I'm playing the odds, I have to say the Colorado Avalanche will not repeat as Stanley Cup champions. They're not the same team they were a few months ago, and in general it's just really hard to repeat.
Nazem Kadri, Colorado's former No. 2 center, is preparing to assume the same role with the Calgary Flames. Darcy Kuemper, the Avalanche's former No. 1 goalie, is the new No. 1 in Washington. Is Alexandar Georgiev up to the task? He was a backup to Lundqvist and then Shesterkin in New York. He's entering training camp as the top goalie on the depth chart for the first time. With that comes a different kind of pressure that Georgiev must prove he can handle. That's one of the biggest questions going into Colorado's camp. The other is who takes Kadri's role as the No. 2 center? J.T. Compher and Alex Newhook have the inside track, but part of what made the Avalanche special last season is the depth they had by using Compher and Newhook in different roles. They also have to replace Andre Burakovsky, a reliable and productive top-six forward who signed with the Seattle Kraken.
Colorado should get a boost from the return of defenseman Samuel Girard, who broke his sternum in Game 3 of the Western Conference Second Round against the St. Louis Blues and missed the rest of the postseason. The Avalanche have the best defenseman in the NHL (Cale Makar) and one of the top two or three centers (Nathan MacKinnon). Devon Toews is also one of the best defensemen but doesn't get enough credit because he plays with Makar. This is a loaded team even without Kuemper, Kadri and Burakovsky, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Avalanche repeat as Stanley Cup champions. They're built for a sustained run of excellence assuming MacKinnon, entering the final season of a seven-year contract, signs long term. But I'll play the odds and say they will not repeat. In fact, my gut is telling me to pay close attention to the Edmonton Oilers, who the Avalanche swept in the Western Conference Final last season.
Do you believe the Islanders' younger part of their core is good enough to lead them back to the playoffs and step up if the veterans falter? Specific players in mind are Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov. -- @johnfiorino97
Maybe.
Barzal needs to return to being a point-per-game center. I'll buy that Barzal became a better all-around player the past four seasons under former coach Barry Trotz, but he is one of the best playmakers in the NHL and without question one of the best in open ice. It needs to show in his offense. The Islanders won't be a playoff team in the Metropolitan Division scoring fewer than three goals per game. The division is too good. Barzal, who had 59 points (15 goals, 44 assists) in 73 games last season, needs to be around the 85-point player he was a rookie who won the Calder Trophy in 2017-18 without sacrificing the other areas of his game that have improved.
Beauvillier and Wahlstrom must be consistent scoring threats, each scoring a minimum 20 goals. Wahlstrom scored 13 in 73 games and Beauvillier 12 in 75 last season and Islanders missed the playoffs. They did not add from the outside this offseason, so they're banking on internal development to get back to the playoffs. That needs to come from Wahlstrom and Beauvillier. They need to combine for at least 40 goals this season.
If they play together, Dobson and Romanov need to be a reliable and productive second defense pair behind Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock. Dobson had 51 points (13 goals, 38 assists) in 80 games last season. If he stays there and improves his defensive play, the Islanders will be better. Romanov should be more productive with better players around him after he had 13 points (three goals, 10 assists) in 79 games for the last-place Montreal Canadiens. The Islanders will be in a strong position defensively if they can have Scott Mayfield on the third pair with either Sebastian Aho, Robin Salo, Dennis Cholowski or a potential left-handed veteran they still could add.
If all that comes to fruition and there is no drop-off elsewhere, the Islanders will be a playoff team again.

What is the Canadiens' next move? Are they pairing up with the Rangers, clearing cap? -- @seebs66
I assume you mean going in the same direction as the Rangers did 4 1/2 years ago by doing a full rebuild: Trading veteran players on contracts that are close to expiring to get draft picks and prospects, building through the draft and supplementing that through free agency and trades. That is the right approach for the Canadiens, so the first targets are the players on expiring contracts: forwards Sean Monahan, Jonathan Drouin, Evgenii Dadonov and Paul Byron, and goalie Jake Allen. All of them can become unrestricted free agents after this season, but it's too soon to say they will all be traded. What if Monahan rediscovers his ability to be a first- or second-line center? He's 27 years old and it's not out of the question that Montreal could re-sign him. But those are the targets you should look at for the Canadiens next move(s).
At the same time, the Canadiens have to see continued growth from forwards Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and
Kirby Dach
, who agreed to a four-year, $13.45 million contract ($3.3625 million average annual value) as a restricted free agent Wednesday. Let's see what kind of impact Juraj Slafkovsky can make as an 18-year-old coming in with the pressure of being the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. Will any of their top defenseman prospects make an impact?
Kaiden Guhle
, 20, Justin Barron, 20, and Jordan Harris, 22, should get opportunities to make the team in training camp. Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Barron and Harris should make up a chunk of the future core.
Montreal is a destination market and Martin St. Louis should be a destination coach, meaning NHL players should want to play for the Canadiens. With some growth this season and patience from everybody, the rebuild will pay off.
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