Mailbag: Destination for Perry, Simmonds; potential Marner offer sheets

Here is the June 26 edition of Dan Rosen's weekly mailbag, which runs every Wednesday. If you have a question, tweet it to @drosennhl and use #OvertheBoards.

What team do you see Corey Perry playing on next season? -- @TJRinger1
Great question. I was discussing this exact question with some colleagues last week when it became official that the Anaheim Ducks were buying out Perry's contract. I firmly believe that a healthy Perry can be a 25-goal scorer in the right system and with the right center distributing him the puck. He wasn't healthy last season after having knee surgery in September and it clearly hurt his production (10 points in 31 games). Perry is three seasons removed from the last time he was a 30-goal scorer (34 in 2015-16). He had 19 goals in 82 games in 2016-17 and 17 in 71 games in 2017-18 before dropping to six this season.
Perry could be a perfect fit for the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks, depending on what happens with forward Joe Pavelski and potentially Patrick Marleau, if he's bought out by the Carolina Hurricanes and wants to return to the team he spent his first 19 seasons with. If Marleau is bought out, the Hurricanes also could be a fit for Perry.
The Avalanche, Stars and Predators need secondary scoring. Nashville is likely in the market for center Matt Duchene, and if it can sign him, Perry would likely be out of the picture. The Sharks might need more offense if they don't re-sign Pavelski, who can become an unrestricted free agent July 1. Marleau could help if he's bought out, becomes a UFA and signs with San Jose. Perry, who is 34 years old, might still be a better fit than the 39-year-old Marleau. Perry has more bite to his game. The Hurricanes are hoping Marleau gives them a chance because they need his scoring and leadership. Perry could be of similar value to them.
I thought about the Tampa Bay Lightning too because they could use a player like Perry, someone who plays with his edge and who has won the Stanley Cup before, but they need to fill out their defense and re-sign Brayden Point. If there's salary cap space left over then maybe Perry would be an option.

Is it possible the Ducks could be interested in Wayne Simmonds? What are other possible landing spots for him? -- @bonnetbeats
Certainly it's possible the Ducks could be interested in Simmonds, who becomes a UFA on Monday. But I wouldn't sign him if it means he's going to take an opportunity away from one of Anaheim's top young forwards who could graduate to the NHL from the American Hockey League, a list that includes Max Jones, Sam Steel, Max Comtois and Kiefer Sherwood. The Ducks aren't in the position where one player will put them over the top, even if that one player can dominate the front of the net on the power play. Anaheim needs to give its young players a chance this season. The Ducks need to change their direction from older and slower to younger, faster and more energetic.
I thought Simmonds would have been the perfect fit with the Nashville Predators, but it didn't work out. He only had three points (one goal, two assists) in 17 games and he was injured in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They reportedly will not bring him back, so he should become a UFA. I think teams like the Montreal Canadiens, Pittsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets could use a player like Simmonds, someone who will bring ferocity on the ice, leadership off it and be a threat on the power play in a likely top-nine forward role. It has to be a short-term contract, though. Simmonds turns 31 on Aug. 26, and he's played some hard minutes in his 841 regular season games. His production has declined for three straight seasons.

What is the likelihood of teams offer-sheeting Mitchell Marner? Which teams would potentially do it and will Toronto match? -- @bfeintuch14
It's enticing to think about this and it would be exciting if Marner got to Monday without a new contract signed with the Maple Leafs. However, I think it's a too-good-to-be-true scenario for fans who like this kind of stuff. I think the Maple Leafs will get Marner under contract before Monday, when he would be eligible to sign an offer sheet. He means too much to them and, frankly, I don't think a team is going to make Marner an offer that would knock the Maple Leafs out of contention to match it. It would cost a team that wants to sign him to the offer sheet their next four first-round draft picks if the average annual value of the contract exceeds $10,568,589. It would have to exceed that amount for the Maple Leafs to even consider balking at it, and I don't think paying four first-round draft picks to get Marner is a good idea. Marner is a terrific, potentially generational player, but keeping your four first-round picks gives you a chance to get four terrific, potentially generational players in the next four years. There are two players in the League that I would give up my next four first-round picks for: Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid and Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon. That's it.
The one team I could see doing it if Marner was available is the New York Islanders, but in a roundabout way that would be like trading John Tavares and four first-round picks to acquire Marner. With all due respect to Marner, that's not a good trade.

Is Colorado a destination you could see Artemi Panarin going to? -- @JacobNuttall8
I'm still predicting Panarin will sign with the Florida Panthers. It's important to note that it's a prediction, not a report. He's still in the interview period and we really don't know yet what Panarin is thinking. There have been reports that his agent met with the Avalanche on Sunday. Their interest in Panarin makes a lot of sense. Panarin on a line with MacKinnon and right wing Mikko Rantanen would instantly gain the title as the best line in the NHL before a game is played next season. But the Panthers have so much going for them, including the chance for Panarin to play with centers Aleksander Barkov or Vincent Trocheck, to reunite with coach Joel Quenneville, to play on the same team as his close friend, forward Evgenii Dadonov, to play and live in South Florida and the potential to continue to play with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. The Panthers want to make a splash too, so you know they're in the Panarin sweepstakes to win them. If he wants a bigger city, the New York Islanders or New York Rangers make sense. I think the Avalanche have to be considered underdogs at this point, but they've at least got a chance if they're in the door already.
William Karlsson is staying in Vegas on what I think is a great deal. It appears that the tax rate there might have assisted in this deal's value. Do you think local and state taxes have a big effect on players signing? -- @GoldenSaucerGuy
I don't think the tax implications are front and center in contract negotiations, but they do help teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars, who play in states with no state income tax. Karlsson's new eight-year, $47.2 million contract ($5.9 million AAV) is a good deal for the Golden Knights, but it's also a good deal for Karlsson. He's going to be paid well to be a top-six two-way center who, in my opinion, is more along the lines of the player he was this season (24 goals, 32 assists for 56 points in 82 games) than he was last season (43 goals, 35 assists for 78 points in 82 games). However, Karlsson's new contract still falls short of Kevin Hayes' new seven-year contract worth $7.14 million per season with the Philadelphia Flyers. Hayes had a NHL career-best 55 points (19 goals, 36 assists) in 71 games this season split between the New York Rangers and Winnipeg Jets. He's also a solid two-way top-six center, but the fact that he's being paid $1.24 million more per season suggests to me that the fact Nevada has no state income tax did play a role in Karlsson's contract. It's also why I think the Lightning were able to keep Hart Trophy-winning forward Nikita Kucherov's AAV under $10 million (it's $9.5 million) and it's another reason why center Brayden Point will be better off re-signing with the Lightning than with another team. He knows Tampa Bay, he knows he fits in there, has a significant role, chemistry, and he won't have to worry about state income tax.

Who does Nashville land for its forward need(s)? -- @justin_moncrief
Duchene is the favorite to sign with the Predators, who cleared defenseman P.K. Subban's $9 million salary cap charge in the trade with the New Jersey Devils on Saturday to open room to improve up front. Duchene could get upwards of $9 million per season. The Predators, though, would likely love to find someone to take center Kyle Turris, who has five years remaining on a contract that pays him $6 million annually. Trading Turris and Subban opens the door for the Predators to easily sign Duchene and re-sign defenseman Roman Josi, who has one year left on his contract, which has a $4 million cap charge. Josi's cap charge is expected to more than double in his next contract. If the Predators sign Duchene and keep Turris, he'd be an expensive No. 3 center behind Ryan Johansen and Duchene. If the Predators can't move Turris, I could see them keeping him as their No. 2 center and going after help on the wing by looking at pending UFAs Gustav Nyquist, Anders Lee, Mats Zuccarello and Corey Perry.
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