Bobrovsky vs. Swayman goalie matchup in Eastern 2nd Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 100 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Eastern Conference Second Round between the Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins features an established, two-time Vezina Trophy winner in Sergei Bobrovsky against one of the top young goalies in the NHL getting his first chance at a playoff run in Jeremy Swayman.

Both are explosive, athletic goalies well equipped to deal with an increasing in lateral attacks, but there are differences tactically and technically in how each handles certain situations and identifying those trends could go a long way to determining this best-of-7 series.

Game 1 is at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on Monday (8 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN, TVAS, CBC).

Sergei Bobrovsky

Florida Panthers

Bobrovsky backstopped the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final last season before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights in five games and followed that up by earning another Vezina Trophy nomination this season before eliminating the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. At his best, the two-time Vezina winner can feel impossible to beat, making it that much more important not to feed into his strengths when they stingy Panthers do give up chances.

Stretch things wide: Bobrovsky has one of the NHL’s most powerful cross-ice pushes and an impressive ability to extend into splits-type saves without losing access to active hands, so just making plays from one side to the other across the slot line, which divides the middle of the ice from the goal line to top of the circles, isn’t always enough. These types of lateral plays, which increase the chances of scoring on any goalie, accounted for 23 percent of regular-season goals and four of 14 in the first round, but Bobrovsky typically performs well against them, especially higher in the zone. Trying to work side-to-side down low or stretch him out with tip options wide of the net, especially when he’s at the edge of the crease, makes it harder to rotate into those lateral pushes, potentially opening gaps on second chances even if he gets to the first.

Five-hole: Nothing went between Bobrovsky’s pads in the first round, but the 17 tracked regular-season goals that went in five-hole jumps off the chart and is well above the tracked average for over 7,000 goals since this project started back in 2017. Scramble plays and rebounds accounted for 10 of the 17, making quick low shots back into the middle of his coverage an option worth trying even for a goalie whose lateral power makes it so important to raise the puck into the upper half of the net on the above-mentioned lateral chances. There were also three 5-hole goals on screens, proof the high stance Bobrovsky uses to see over traffic can be vulnerable to low shots, and another three on breakaways as shooters took advantage of the patience on his edges that is otherwise considered a strength with quick, low shots.

Screens: “Get more traffic” is a cliché this time of the season for a reason. Bobrovsky managed screens at a slightly above-average rate in the regular season with 15 goals allowed, but they were a main factor on 5 of 14 in the first round. If you can’t catch him in that elevated stance that leave the five-hole open, shooters higher in the zone can wait for him to transition into his lower, wider save stance before trying to filter high shots to the net.

High glove, not blocker: There was a lot of focus on the blocker last playoffs after the Bruins scored 37.5 percent of their goals shooting mid-to-high blocker side, but the numbers say it’s long been a strength. The way Bobrovsky shapes and holds his stick to prioritize blocker coverage, and a willingness to drop that stick on purpose a times to make active blocker saves, make the blocker side an apparent strength. Shots just off his hip may be a better option on that side, or just avoid it altogether by targeting glove side high on open looks.

One-time and against the grain: As fast as Bobrovsky is, catching him moving is key, with quick shots a factor on 35 percent of the regular-season goals and 4 of 14 in the first round, and shots against the grain were a factor in 25 percent in the regular season and four of 14 in the playoffs.

Beware active stick: Bobrovsky does a great job cutting off lateral passes through or near his crease with an active stick throughout the playoffs, so elevating passing attempts through the blue ice might help get a few more to their intended target.

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins

The 25-year-old split the first two playoff starts with Vezina-winning partner Linus Ullmark before finishing off a tight seven-game, first-round victory against the Toronto Maple Leafs with a .950 save percentage. After spitting time in the regular season, it’s likely Ullmark will get another start in the playoffs. But Swayman was dominant against Toronto, so it’s hard to picture him not getting the start for Game 1 against Florida.

Against the grain: Like Bobrovsky, shooting opposite the direction Swayman is moving played a role in 25 percent of regular-season goals tracked, well above the 18.5 percent average. This included a majority of clean looks Swayman gave up off the rush, with high shots to the far side when coming down the wing a trend that can perhaps be tied to his tendency to drift straight back on these plays, slightly losing squareness as it gets deeper in the zone.

East-west: Swayman’s ability to hold his edges and still generate lateral push power even as he gets into a lower, wider stance makes him one of the NHL’s top goalies when it comes to defending the lateral plays that have become an increasing part of creating offense in the League over the past five years. He only gave up 18 goals on passes and plays across the middle of the ice in the regular season, below the tracked average (22.1 percent), but it remains a great way to increase the chances of scoring against all goalies and played a role on six of nine in the opening round. That so many of the tap-in type of goals in the regular season came on plays going to his left (eight of the 13 along the ice on his glove side) compared to his right (three of four) may also be a trend worth, especially since most goalies tend to move better to their glove side.

Rebounds: Swayman is also blessed with an incredibly wide butterfly flare that aids in his ability to grab an edge and push side to side from his knees. But having the pads flared out wide does tend to keep rebounds in front, rather than angled off to the sides, and rebounds were a factor in 18 percent of goals in the regular season, well above the tracked average of 11.7 percent.

Five-hole: A well-balanced goal chart isn’t surprising for such a technically sound goalie, but the 16 five-hole goals in the regular season are above average, and it was notable that after getting beat between the legs by Maple Leafs forward William Nylander on a breakaway in Game 6, Swayman went paddle down to cover that spot at times in Game 7, which can create exposure high on the blocker side.

Go to net, stop at net: In addition to 17 screen goals in the regular season, slightly above the 15.1 percent average, there were four on clean shots that trickled behind Swayman when he appeared to have it, making it important not to do fly-bys off rush chances. He was above average on low-high plays below the goal line, but four sharp-angle shot did leak through his varying coverage techniques, all on the glove side.