Panthers desperate for 2nd-half turnaround after rocky start
Every game 'a must-win' for last season's Presidents' Trophy winners
They defeated the Washington Capitals 4-2 in the Eastern Conference First Round, winning a series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 1996.
But halfway through this season?
They're 18-19-4 after a
5-1 loss at the Dallas Stars
on Sunday, fifth in the Atlantic Division and six points behind the New York Islanders for the second wild card into the playoffs from the East.
In short, they're in danger of missing the playoffs at a time when they hoped to take the next step at Cup contenders.
And it comes at a time when they're celebrating hockey in South Florida by hosting the 2023 Honda NHL All-Star Game at FLA LIVE Arena on Feb. 4 (3 p.m. ET; ABC, ESPN+, CBC, SN, TVAS).
Not good.
But not hopeless, either.
"Every game is a must-win for us," Panthers forward Sam Bennett said. "We're going to need to go on a roll here and find some confidence, and if we get on a good roll, I definitely like our chances.
"We're really just worried about one game at a time, and we can't really look at the big picture, because it could be overwhelming."
The Panthers made major changes in the offseason. Two stuck out:
They hired coach Paul Maurice to replace Andrew Brunette on June 22, even though Brunette went 51-18-6 after taking over for Joel Quenneville on Oct. 29, 2021, and was runner-up for the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year.
They acquired forward Matthew Tkachuk on July 22 in a trade that sent forward Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar to the Calgary Flames, even though Huberdeau led them with 115 points (30 goals, 85 assists) and Weegar was second on the team in average ice time (23:22).
The thinking was that Maurice was the better choice to take the Panthers to the next level. He was fourth in games coached (1,684) and seventh in wins (775) in NHL history at the time; Brunette had never been a head coach for a full NHL season.
Huberdeau, 29, could have become an unrestricted free agent after this season; Tkachuk, 24 at the time, 25 now, was a restricted free agent. Each received an eight-year contract with his new team, Tkachuk agreeing the day of the trade, Huberdeau signing Aug. 5.
They've gone from scoring 4.11 goals per game, first in the NHL, to 3.22, 15th in the League, and from allowing 2.95 goals per game, 12th in the NHL, to 3.41, 23rd in the League.
The changes don't explain everything, though.
Florida has dealt with illness and injury. Defenseman Aaron Ekblad has missed 11 games, defenseman Radko Gudas 10. Forward Anthony Duclair hasn't played this season. Forward Patric Hornqvist has missed 19 games, center Aleksander Barkov 10, center Anton Lundell nine.
The Panthers haven't fallen off that much by some measures. Last season, they were first in the NHL in shot-attempts percentage at 5-on-5 (56.5), a measure of puck possession. This season, they're fourth (53.8).
Tkachuk has been everything they expected he would be. He leads them with 49 points (20 goals, 29 assists) and will play in the All-Star Game.
"What's missing?" Maurice said. "There are a couple things that are glaring that have to get better."
One is the penalty kill. The power play is at 24.4 percent, same as it was last season, since a 2-for-33 start. But the penalty kill, which was 16th in the NHL last season at 79.5 percent, is now 22nd in the League at 75.0 percent. Perhaps the loss of Weegar hurts there.
The other is goaltending. Spencer Knight is 9-7-3 with a 3.05 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage. Sergei Bobrovsky is 9-12-1 with a 3.26 GAA and an .895 save percentage. The good news is that Bobrovsky, a two-time winner of the Vezina Trophy as the NHL's best goalie, has looked better since Dec. 8, going 5-6-0 with a 2.76 GAA and a .912 save percentage.
"I totally believe in ourselves, and we do have a great group," Tkachuk said. "Our record probably doesn't show how well we have played this year."
The Panthers must stay afloat the next 2 ½ weeks to give themselves a chance down the stretch.
Seven of their next nine games are on the road, starting with the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday (9:30 p.m. ET; ESPN+, HULU, SN NOW).
After that, their schedule lightens. They will have 20 home games left. Of their 12 remaining road games at that point, three will be in the Central time zone. The rest will be in the Eastern time zone.
"We're in that mode where we have to mentally approach all of these as playoff games," Maurice said. "You're not going 16-0 in the playoffs, and we're not going to win every game [this month]. This is as tough a trip as I've seen in the NHL, this month. … But you've got to win a lot more than you lose right now for us."
This is a team that had a .744 points percentage last season. It has the potential to go on a run again.
"So much potential," Ekblad said. "There's a lot of urgency, no doubt."
