Shesterkin vs. Andersen goalie matchup in Eastern 2nd Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 100 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Eastern Conference Second Round series between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers will feature a battle between two of the hottest goalies at the end of the regular season and into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Game 1 of the best-of-7 series is at New York on Sunday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN, SN, TVAS).

After coming back March 7 from a blood clotting issue that sidelined him for 50 games, Frederik Andersen went 9-1-0 with a 1.30 goals-against average and .951 save percentage for the Hurricanes in his final 10 regular-season games (all starts). He won four of five games against the New York Islanders in the first round.

Igor Shesterkin was 10-4-0 with a 2.33 GAA and .920 save percentage during that same span to end the regular season. He then got all four wins when the Rangers swept the Washington Capitals in the first round.

Even the best goalies have trends and tendencies, however, and how fast each team identifies -- and attacks -- those could go a long way to determining the outcome of this series.

Igor Shesterkin

New York Rangers

Shesterkin has experienced ups and downs since 2021-22, when he won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goalie and was named a finalist for the Hart Trophy as League MVP, but he appeared to rediscover that form in the second half of this season. His playoff performances have been consistently excellent in three runs as the Rangers starter, with a .930 save percentage that includes a mark of .931 both against the Capitals this season and in a seven-game loss to the New Jersey Devils in the first round last season.

High glove, not blocker: Don’t be fooled by the zero above Shesterkin’s glove in the first round against Washington. The 35 percent that went in above his glove among his final 100 goals of the regular season are almost 12 percent above the tracked average for more than 6,800 goals since this project started in 2017. While some of that is due to the inherent nature of players aiming for the top corners because every goalie drops into a butterfly, there was a notable discrepancy between the glove and the blocker side, which Shesterkin has been consistently great at protecting, especially high. Shesterkin starts with his glove up near his shoulder but tends to drop it onto his hip, especially if he’s moving laterally into his stance (14 of the 35 high-glove goals came off cross-ice play and passes). Despite that, the Capitals directed almost twice as many shots to the blocker side, a trend the Hurricanes would be wise not to repeat.

Low-high, below bottom of circles: Passes from below the goal line below the bottom of the face-off circles accounted for 23 percent of the tracked goals, and two of seven in the playoffs (28.6 percent), both above the average of 17.1 percent. Shesterkin is one of the NHL’s best skaters, so plays that force him back to his posts before a low-high pass can delay his ability to get out and set as cleanly as he normally would. It helps explain why lateral plays below the hash marks led to more goals (14) than cross-ice plays higher in the zone (four). Carrying the puck deep on rush chances can also work, as he tends to overlap his post with his outside skate as it gets below the circle, creating a big rotation and push if the puck is moved laterally.

Get it up: It’s also important not to read too much into the 22 goals tracked as going in along the ice to either side of Shesterkin because it’s not as though he was beat cleanly on all of them; these are also used to indicate plays where he was caught out of position and couldn’t recover in time laterally. He can get caught out near the edge of his crease on scramble plays and shots that hit traffic in front, which accounted for 21 percent of his goals in the regular season and three of seven (42.9 percent) in the playoffs, well above the 14 percent tracked average. So, it’s a good idea to funnel loose pucks to a teammate off to the side, but Shesterkin is one of the best moving from his knees and usually gets a glove over that lead pad when he pushes side to side, so shooting along the ice even on lateral plays gives him a chance to make a momentum-changing highlight save.

Against the grain: Shots and tips to the opposite side of Shesterkin’s movement accounted for 23 percent of the tracked goals, and two of seven (28.6 percent) against the Capitals, and though those are inherently tough scoring chances, both numbers were above the 18.5 percent tracked average.

Frederik Andersen

Carolina Hurricanes

Andersen was out more than four months, so there’s a smaller sample of video to review of him from this season. He was limited to 16 games and allowed 28 goals in the regular season, but after 11 seasons in the NHL, his tendencies have been well established, even for a goalie who prides himself on constantly evolving.

Defend the rush: The numbers aren’t as lopsided as last season, when 64 percent of the tracked goals came off rush chances, but even at 43 percent during his abbreviated regular season, Andersen is above the 35 percent average.

Wide, lateral and quick: Part of that trend on rush chances was a tendency to widen his stance slightly as he retreated, which can slow his pushes a bit, as well as a tendency to play outside his posts as plays came down the wing deeper into the zone. That increases the distance Andersen has to travel on low, lateral passes that follow, especially on plays when he stays squared up to the puck carrier below the face-off circle. Those trends show up in 35.7 percent of his regular-season goals coming after cross-ice passes, well above the tracked average (22.1 percent), but it’s important to get the shots off quickly on the other end of those plays too. One-timers were a factor on 39.3 percent of regular-season goals and six of 12 (50 percent) so far in the playoffs.

Low glove: Andersen is still fast enough to get across on a lot of lateral plays if opponents don’t shoot fast enough and flexible enough to make momentum-changing pad saves when he does, but the need to reach rather than get his whole body turned can create low-glove exposure.

Right to left: All goalies have a side they move better toward, and for most it’s the glove. Andersen is no different, with all five of the blocker-side goals along the ice coming off lateral plays when he couldn’t get across. Some are just really tough plays, but he’s more likely to get stranded or push across without rotating back to his post when he’s moving right to left.