Bobrovsky vs. Skinner goalie matchup in Stanley Cup Final

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses, the last 100 goals allowed for each goalie in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The 2024 Stanley Cup Final features two goalies with very different styles, strengths and experience, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner in Sergei Bobrovsky of the Florida Panthers against a second-year NHL starter in Stuart Skinner for the Edmonton Oilers.

Bobrovsky is explosive and dynamic, rarely out of any play even if some of his aggression can sometimes be targeted but slightly smaller at 6-foot-2 and plays with a lower, wider stance that can expose the top of the net in certain situations. Skinner (6-4) is bigger and at his best can force shooters to miss with size and positioning but has a narrower butterfly and limited lateral mobility relative to his counterpart in the other crease.

There are more differences than similarities in style and strengths, as well as technique and tactics, and the team that better identifies and attacks the varying exposures that come from those variances could also be the one raising the Cup as a result.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Florida Panthers

Bobrovsky has the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final for a second straight year after earning a Vezina Trophy finalist nomination this season. Though his save percentage dropped from .915 in the regular season to .908 in the playoffs, it was back up to .921 while eliminating the New York Rangers in six games in the Eastern Conference Final. Regardless of the statistics, Bobrovsky makes difficult, momentum-changing saves and can be intimidating with speed and athleticism that mean he's rarely out of a play, making it even more important not to feed into his strengths when the stingy Panthers give up chances.

Screens: "Get more traffic" is a cliché this time of the season for a reason. Though Bobrovsky managed screens at an above-average rate in the regular season with 15 goals allowed, they were a primary factor on five of 14 in the first round, and three of 12 in each of the next two rounds for a total of 11 of 38 (28.9 percent). During the regular season, Bobrovsky sometimes got caught with low shots while in his elevated stance looking over traffic, accounting for the high number of five-hole goals, but he's yet to give one up between the pads in the playoffs. The more prevalent trend is waiting until he is in his lower, wider save stance and looking around screens, making him more vulnerable to high shots, which account for seven of 11 goals. He's also given up six screen goals on shots from the slot, highlighting the importance of getting into good scoring areas.

Stretch him out: Bobrovsky has one of the most powerful cross-ice pushes in the NHL and an impressive ability to extend into splits-type saves without losing access to active hands, so just making plays from one side to the other across the slot line isn't always enough. Those types of lateral plays, which increase the chances of scoring on any goalie, account for 23 percent of goals tracked in the regular season and 23.6 percent in playoffs (9-for-38), just barely above the 22.1 percent tracked average. But we saw a couple of examples against the Rangers in the conference final of specific ways to target him with east-west plays, and it starts with making more of them below the hash marks, which was a factor in six of the nine slot-line goals so far. Tip options and slap passes wide of the net are one way to target Bobrovsky, who tends to play at or even beyond the edge of his crease, which leaves space between him and the post if he pushes across flat and creating openings on second chances because he's so extended. Alexis Lafreniere's goal in the final minute of Game 5 was one good example, as was Lafreniere's goal in Game 4 off an Adam Fox backhand wide of the net.

Wide on breakaways too: The same theory holds true in one-on-one situations with Bobrovsky, which have accounted for five goals in the playoffs after 15 in the tracked regular-season goals, each of which are above the tracked average (10.2 percent) for more than 7,000 goals since this project started in 2017. Teams seem to target the blocker side more for this, including Boston Bruins forward Justin Brazeau on a Game 1 breakaway in the Eastern Conference Second Round, and Morgan Geekie cutting across the ice after a low-high pass in Game 5. Chris Kreider made a similar move in Game 5 of the conference final and Lafreniere went to the blocker side with a backhand after a brilliant move through the slot in Game 3.

High glove not blocker?: There was a lot of focus on Bobrovsky's blocker during the playoffs last year and Boston shooters beat him there again on two of three clean-shot goals in the second round, including Mason Lohrei's short-side shot from the bottom of the left circle in Game 1 and Jakub Lauko from the left dot in Game 3. But those were from areas that put Bobrovsky into a more passive blocking position. The numbers say that side has typically been a strength, and the way Bobrovsky shapes and holds his stick to prioritize blocker coverage matches that. You may be better shooting high glove, which accounts for the highest goals total in both the regular season (21 percent) and the playoffs (34.2 percent). That includes a couple of clean looks from further out over his left shoulder that suggest open looks aimed high have a chance if he must move and as he settles into his lower secondary stance, even higher in the zone.

Against-the-grain one-timers: As fast as Bobrovsky is, catching him moving with shots in the opposite direction was a factor in 25 percent of regular-season goals, 4-for-14 in the first round, 5-for-12 in the second and 4-for-12 in the conference final. That's 34.2 percent in playoffs, almost twice tracked average of 18.5 percent.

Beware active stick: Bobrovksy is active with his stick cutting off passes near his crease, so elevating these attempts will help get more to the intended target, and maybe catch him trying to block the pass instead of moving across with it.

Stuart Skinner

Edmonton Oilers

Skinner was excellent after the Oilers replaced coach Jay Woodcroft and assistant Dave Manson with Kris Knoblauch and Hockey Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey on Nov. 12, and a big part of that was Edmonton finally limiting the high-quality rush chances it was giving up too often to start the season. Skinner bounced back similarly after being pulled in the second round against the Vancouver Canucks with a .922 save percentage in the Western Conference Final while eliminating the Dallas Stars in six games.

Bodies to the net for scrambles: After being average or slightly better in the regular season on scramble goals (17 percent compared to 14 percent tracked average) and screens (14 compared to 15.1 percent average), both numbers are up in the playoffs. Screens are at 22.5 percent (9-for-40) including four of 12 goals in the West Final, and 14 of 40 playoff goals have come off scrambles and broken plays (35 percent) that expose side-to-side recovery delays when moving from his knees, caused in part from having a narrower butterfly, which is more than double the tracked rate of 14 percent in the regular season. These plays account for most of the nine goals along the ice, especially on the blocker side, and make it increasingly important for Edmonton defenders to win their battles in front of the net.

Tips too: After being a primary factor on just three tracked goals in the regular season and none in the first round, deflection goals were also up in the second round (four of 15) and played a role (five of 12) in the west final, with three tipped into the net and two other redirected to create the above-mentioned broken plays. Skinner tends to play a little deeper, typically staying well inside the crease, which creates less coverage on pucks changing direction.

Far side off the rush: Edmonton doesn't give up much off the rush under Knoblauch, but rush-type chances were still a factor in six of 12 goals in the West Final, and clear-cut rushes showed a season-long susceptibility to far-side, or against-the-grain, shots. These include Wyatt Johnston's goal in the opening minute of Game 4 and Jamie Benn beating Skinner clean along the ice on the far side on a 2-on-1 early in Game 2. They matched the regular-season trend among 25 percent against-the-grain goals: shoot low-blocker skating down the right wing and high glove when skating down the left were the most successful shots, targeting a tendency to retreat on the rush flat to the goal line, which opens the far side.

Get him moving into (and playing outside) his posts: The Stars scored four of 12 goals off plays from below the goal line, including one shot off the end boards that stranded Skinner outside his post after overplaying the initial attempt on their only goal in Game 6, something the Canucks also used to score in the second round. But the more targetable trend was getting him to play on his posts on plays from sharp angles and wraparounds. Though most will point to Skinner hitting the post with his skate and leaving a gap under the pad that Jason Robertson exploited to bank the winning goal in off him in Game 3, it's the position of his other skate that is more problematic on these plays. Because Skinner tends to leave his anchor skate up ice toward the top of the crease rather than flattening it out closer to the goal line he enters a RVH on the post, he's also more vulnerable to short-side high shots from bad angles, like the goal by Canucks defenseman Nikita Zadorov in Game 2 of the second round, and slower to move post-to-post on wraparounds, which can leave him behind the play on pass outs on the other side, like Johnston's tap-in goal in Game 3, a tough play but one Skinner never caught up with after Benn went behind the net.

Early passes off the rush, down low in-zone: Plays across the middle of the ice increase the odds of scoring on any goalie, and more so, one with relative lateral limitations, but where to makes those plays on Skinner depends on the type of chance. On rush plays, lateral passes are more effective higher in the zone because of a tendency to either slide or pitch forward and get off balance coming across. On in-zone play, passes through the middle are more effective below the hash marks, creating a big lateral rotation that sometimes leaves him stuck, and any chance to take the puck across the top of the crease in a one-on-one situation, can leave him pitched forward without coverage to the post like he was on a Benn breakaway in Game 1 that led to a Tyler Seguin tap in on the other side.

Active rebounds: Skinner's numbers improved on rebounds this season, with 12 goals as a result, slightly above the tracked average of 11.7, and only 2-for-40 in the playoffs. Some of that may be how fast and hard pucks are bouncing off the new CCM AXIS XF pads he was the only NHL regular to use this year. Designed to create more active rebounds, it means second chances, especially on pass-off-pad plays, will bounce faster past attackers near the edge of the crease, making it better to look for those pucks further out.