Stanley Cup Qualifiers preview: Flames vs. Jets

Calgary's top-line production key against Winnipeg's goaltending, depth scoring

By Tim Campbell

@TimNHL NHL.com Staff Writer

July 31, 2020

The Stanley Cup Qualifiers will use eight best-of-5 series and two four-team round-robins to determine the field and seeding for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

NHL.com will preview every series and round-robin prior to the start of the Qualifiers on Saturday.

Today, the qualifier series between the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets.

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No. 8 Calgary Flames vs. No. 9 Winnipeg Jets

Flames: 36-27-7, .564 points percentage

Jets: 37-28-6, .563 points percentage

Season series: CGY 0-0-1; WPG 1-0-0

The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets each have something to prove in their Stanley Cup Qualifier series that begins at Rogers Place in Edmonton on Saturday (10:30 p.m. ET; NBCSN, NHL.TV, CBC, SN).

The Flames are eager to show they're a different team than the one that was eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the Western Conference First Round the past two times they qualified (2017, 2019), especially after being the top seed in the West and losing in five games to the Colorado Avalanche last season.

The Jets are determined to show their opportunity for success was not limited to their playoff appearances the past two seasons. They reached the Western Conference Final in 2018 but lost in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights, then lost in six games to the eventual Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues in the first round in 2019.

"We're ready to take that next step and have some playoff success here," Flames captain Mark Giordano said. "It's long overdue. I think the guys ... the mindset of our team has been great all [training] camp and looking forward to getting into some real game action here.

"I think we've learned a few hard lessons here, especially last year and years before in playoffs. Such a fine line between winning and losing at this time of year."

Jets captain Blake Wheeler is also mindful of recent lessons, in particular from the 2019 first-round series against the Blues, which was tied after four games.

"We had them on the ropes in Game 5, and they just kind of stayed with what they're good at and did it for one more period in that Game 5 and kind of stole away the series from us," Wheeler said. "Those are little lessons I think we've learned over the last couple of years. We've been kind of knocking on the door for a couple of years now, we've learned a few things, and I think we're gaining some seasoning in those aspects of playoff hockey."

Each team will be without a key player in the postseason. Calgary defenseman Travis Hamonic opted out of the NHL Return to Play Plan for family reasons, and Winnipeg center Bryan Little is still recovering from surgery in February to repair a perforated eardrum.

Hockey is Back: Jets vs. Flames Begins Aug. 1

Game breakers

Flames: Johnny Gaudreau's numbers were down significantly this season, with 58 points (18 goals, 40 assists) in 70 games after scoring an NHL career-high 99 points (36 goals, 63 assists) in 82 games in 2018-19. But the forward is a dangerous offensive catalyst who can change games with his elite creativity.

Jets: Mark Scheifele scored 73 points (29 goals, 44 assists) in 71 games, his fourth straight season averaging at least one point per game. He has been an impactful player in the postseason, setting NHL playoff records for most road goals in a single season, 11 in 2018, and most road goals in a playoff series, seven against the Nashville Predators, also in 2018.

Goaltending

Flames:Coach Geoff Ward has a difficult choice between David Rittich (24-17-6, 2.97 goals-against average, .907 save percentage) and Cam Talbot (12-10-1, 2.63, .919). Rittich, who has no NHL postseason experience, was 15-8-4 with a 2.73 GAA and .914 save percentage until Dec. 15, but his numbers declined in his final 21 games before the NHL paused the season March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus (9-9-2, 3.30, .897). Talbot, who has played in 15 NHL playoff games (7-7, 2.48, .922), was excellent for Calgary after Dec. 15 (9-5-1, 2.42, .926).

Jets: Connor Hellebuyck (31-21-5, 2.57 GAA, .922 save percentage) is a finalist for the Vezina Trophy as the top goaltender in the NHL for the second time in his career, having finished second in voting in 2018. He led the NHL this season with six shutouts, 1,656 saves and 1,796 shots-against. His 3,268:33 of ice time was second behind the 3,439:49 played by Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens.

Numbers to know

Flames: Calgary was more consistent following a rocky start and a coaching change. When Bill Peters resigned as coach Nov. 29, the Flames were 12-12-4 and 24th in the NHL on the power play (15.9 percent). After Ward made his debut Nov. 30, Calgary went 24-15-3 and had the third-best power play (25.7 percent).

Jets: Winnipeg was the only NHL team this season with five forwards who scored at least 50 points: Scheifele and Kyle Connor, 73 each; Wheeler, 65; Patrik Laine, 63; and Nikolaj Ehlers, 58.

X-factors

Flames: Andrew Mangiapane's value to Calgary increased throughout the season, the forward's quickness and good hands earning him a regular spot on the second line with center Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk. In his third NHL season, Mangiapane scored 32 points (17 goals, 15 assists) in 70 games.

Jets: Andrew Copp scored 26 points (10 goals, 16 assists) in 63 games, the forward playing a key role on the checking line with center Adam Lowry and as one of Winnipeg's top penalty killers. He averaged an NHL career-high 17:42 of ice time per game.

They said it

"One of the things that I really liked about our team before the pause happened was the way we were playing as a team on the defensive side of the puck. That's one of the key things I saw this team grow probably most from October to now. So it gives me a lot of confidence in what we can do starting on Aug. 1." -- Flames forward Milan Lucic

"Playoff hockey is way better than anything else. ... This would be like, I don't know, if you celebrated the 12 days of Christmas. You got something on each one of the first 12 days, it's really not that big of a deal, but Christmas is going to be pretty good. The playoffs are Christmas." -- Jets coach Paul Maurice

Will win if …

Flames: Their top line leads. Gaudreau, center Sean Monahan and right wing Elias Lindholm have the skill to match any top line in the NHL and will be under the microscope given their combined ineffectiveness in the five-game loss to Colorado last year (two goals in five games). When that line is clicking, Calgary is difficult to handle.

Jets: Winnipeg's defensive game picks up where it left off. It was a work in progress all season, given its roster turnover from the season before (after losing regular defensemen Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot), but from Feb. 1 until the pause, and with better health in February and early March, the Jets tied the Boston Bruins as the best defensive team in the NHL with 2.11 goals-against per game. More of that and they advance.