State Your Case: Maple Leafs' No. 1 goalie

The competition to become the No. 1 goalie for the Toronto Maple Leafs has begun in earnest.

Ilya Samsonov showed what he's capable of Saturday, stopping all 16 shots he faced over two periods in a 4-2 preseason loss to the Ottawa Senators.
Matt Murray is expected to get his first chance when he starts against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday, also playing two periods.
Each goalie enters his first season with the Maple Leafs. Samsonov signed a one-year contract July 13 after the 25-year-old was 79-52-22 with a 2.81 goals-against average, .902 save percentage and six shutouts in his first three NHL seasons for the Washington Capitals. Murray was acquired July 11 with two draft picks in a trade with the Senators. The 28-year-old is a two-time Stanley Cup champion for the Pittsburgh Penguins and is 132-78-22 with a 2.77 GAA, .911 save percentage and 14 shutouts in seven NHL seasons.
A team that hasn't won a first-round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2004 will be relying heavily on each goalie, but who should start the season as the No. 1?
That's the question before NHL.com writers Tom Gulitti and Mike Zeisberger in this installment of State Your Case:
Gulliti:Murray has been a No. 1 goalie in the NHL before and helped the Penguins win the Stanley Cup in 2016 and 2017, so I'd pick him to start for the Maple Leafs. Sure, Murray went through some tough times the past two seasons with the rebuilding Senators after they acquired him from the Penguins on Oct. 7, 2020. That included dealing with injuries, inconsistent play and a stint with Belleville in the American Hockey League after clearing waivers last season. He played well following his recall from Belleville on Jan. 1, going 5-7-2 with a 2.96 GAA and .912 save percentage before an injury forced him to miss Ottawa's final 29 games. Playing for the Maple Leafs, who are expected to contend for the Stanley Cup, will give a healthy Murray a fresh start, and having an established relationship with general manager Kyle Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe should also help. Dubas was the GM of Sault Ste. Marie in the Ontario Hockey League for three seasons. Keefe was coach for two seasons when Murray played for the junior team.

Zeisberger:Yes, Murray won the Stanley Cup twice with the Penguins, but that was a long time ago. He hasn't played more than 38 games in a season since 2018-19 mainly because of injury. More alarming during his stint with Ottawa were positioning issues. When you are a stand-up goalie who relies on his angles, losing the net (aka bad positioning) is an issue. Samsonov, my choice in this debate, is three years younger and got off to a great start in his preseason debut with the Maple Leafs. New goaltending coach Curtis Sanford traveled to Florida for Samsonov's offseason workouts with New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin. They worked on Samsonov's speed going post to post and his ability to cover the bottom of the net, two improvements that have been noticeable less than a week into training camp. In summation, Samsonov has a high ceiling he's working toward, while recent history suggests Murray may have already peaked in Pittsburgh.

Gulitti:I agree that Samsonov has a ceiling he's yet to reach, and he had stretches with the Capitals when he looked like he might be capable of fulfilling that potential. Unfortunately, that was a recurring narrative and inconsistency prevented him from grabbing their No. 1 job despite ample opportunities. Maybe Samsonov will break through with the Maple Leafs, but Murray has at least shown in the past that he can play at that level consistently when healthy and behind a team that isn't rebuilding. During that 2018-19 season Mike mentioned, Murray was 29-14-6 with a 2.69 GAA, .919 save percentage and four shutouts in 50 regular-season games (all starts). Getting back to that level is not automatic, but at least Murray has demonstrated he can do it over an extended period. He was 97-42-14 with 2.62 GAA, .917 save percentage and 10 shutouts his first four NHL seasons. Playing behind a veteran team should provide Murray with a better structure to succeed.
Zeisberger: I agree Murray's stats were impressive through his first four NHL seasons. That was then, this is now. He's 35-36-8 in his past three seasons. It's his inability to stay healthy that is most concerning. He's played 47 games the past two, missing time because of a variety of ailments. And when he has played, he's showed brief flashes of being the difference-maker the Maple Leafs will need him to be, especially in the postseason. Sure, the same can be said of Samsonov. But in a case like this, I'll go with the younger player with less of a recent injury history. And that's Samsonov.