State Your Case: Stanley Cup Playoff chances of Stars, Avalanche

The Dallas Stars lead the Central Division. The Colorado Avalanche, one of their primary rivals, are four points behind them.

There's a chance these teams could meet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, perhaps as early as the first round if they finish second and third in the division. The Winnipeg Jets are two points behind the Stars, but have four games in hand.

The Stars (35-16-9) and the Avalanche (35-19-5) will meet at Ball Arena on Tuesday (9:30 p.m. ET; HULU, ESPN+).

The teams have the same number of wins and each possesses game-breakers throughout its lineup. So, which of these two heavyweights from the Western Conference is positioned to go deepest in the postseason?

That's the question before NHL.com senior writer Dan Rosen and staff writer Derek Van Diest in this installment of State Your Case.

Rosen: This isn't a slam dunk, but I'm all-in on the Stars in the Central Division largely because of their scoring depth up front, defenseman Miro Heiskanen, and assets available to improve defensively before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline on March 8. But I'll win this argument before I even get to the deadline stuff. The Stars have seven forwards with at least 40 points, led by Jason Robertson's 57 (19 goals, 38 assists). Matt Duchene has 56 points (23 goals, 33 assists), Roope Hintz has 50 (23 goals, 27 assists) and Joe Pavelski has 49 (20 goals, 29 assists). Jamie Benn is eighth among Dallas forwards with 34 points (nine goals, 25 assists). Colorado has Nathan MacKinnon with 96 points (34 goals, 62 assists) and Mikko Rantanen with 74 points (30 goals, 44 assists). I'm obviously aware that nobody on Dallas comes close to that production, but Colorado does not have any other forwards available to it now with more than Jonathan Drouin's 32 points (10 goals, 22 assists). If Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski are limited as a line, the Stars still can rely on Duchene, Mason Marchment (46 points), Tyler Seguin (45), Wyatt Johnston (41) and Benn to provide scoring. The Avalanche don't have the same kind of scoring depth if MacKinnon and Rantanen are limited in a playoff series. They have defenseman Cale Makar, who is third on Colorado with 61 points (13 goals, 48 assists), but the Stars have Heiskanen, who has 37 points (seven goals, 30 assists), and he can provide a jolt of offense in the same way Makar can. MacKinnon can win the Avalanche a playoff series on his own. He's that good. But I'd rather rely on skill and depth to get it done in the playoffs. The Stars have more of each.

Van Diest: Those are compelling points, Dan, but other numbers stand out to me when it comes to the Stars roster, and that's age. Things get tougher as the playoffs approach and wins are harder to come by toward the end of the season. Dallas has scoring depth, but it's an aging team with Pavelski, 39; defenseman Ryan Suter, 39; Benn, 34; Duchene, 33; and Seguin, 32. Can those aging legs keep up when the intensity rises in the race for positioning in the standings and into the playoffs? For some of those players, this may be their last kick at the can. They've had good seasons to this point, but in comparison, Colorado's core is in its prime with MacKinnon, 28; Rantanen, 27; Makar, 25; Drouin, 28; forward Ross Colton, 27; defenseman Bowen Byram, 22; and goalie Alexandar Georgiev, 28. Several of those key players were with the Avalanche when they won the Stanley Cup in 2022, and after a surprise first-round exit last season against the Seattle Kraken, are determined to go on another long playoff run. MacKinnon has been nearly unstoppable this season and should be a candidate for the Hart Trophy as NHL most valuable player, while Makar has developed into one of the best defensemen in the NHL. When your top-end talent is so good, then depth is not a huge concern. The playoffs are where stars shine and that's where I expect the Avalanche to elevate. It's going to take a lot to knock them out of the playoffs and I don't know if the Stars will be able to keep up as we near the end of an exhausting regular season.

Rosen: Age is but a number, Derek. Pavelski has been defying his age for quite some time now. Suter and Benn are playing roles befitting their age. They're not top minute-munchers anymore. Benn plays primarily on the third line and still is producing while averaging 15:01 per game. Suter is playing less than 20 minutes per game (19:34) for the first time since he was a rookie in 2005-06. The concern with Seguin isn't age, it's injury; he's currently week to week because a lower-body injury. I have no concern at all with Duchene. The only reason you went after the Stars' age, Derek, is because you couldn't counter my point on their depth being greater than the Avalanche's. And it could get even better because the Stars are expected to add at least one defenseman before the trade deadline. They have the draft capital to make a serious buy. Dallas has its first-round picks for the next three drafts, and second-round picks in 2024 and 2026. They're willing to spend because, as you referenced, they have several aging core players, so the window to win the Stanley Cup is open now but it won't stay open forever. A team that already is a Stanley Cup contender will improve. Oh, and by the way, I have gone this far without mentioning the Stars' goaltending depth, something else the Avalanche do not have. Jake Oettinger has a 2.92 goals-against average and .903 save percentage in 36 games, and Scott Wedgewood has played well behind him. Georgiev has a 2.92 GAA and .899 save percentage in 48 games, and already has been used too much this season because of a lack of a trustworthy backup. Oettinger also has won in the playoffs, helping Dallas reach the Western Conference Final last season. Georgiev lost his only playoff series to date, against Seattle last season. Edge: Dallas.

Van Diest: Age is just a number Dan, unless you're trying to make a run for the Stanley Cup, then those long, tough, physical playoff games can make a veteran player feel really old, really fast. What Pavelski is doing this season is remarkable and I applaud him, but when three of your top six scorers [Duchene, Pavelski, Seguin] are older than 30, I think that can be cause for concern. Dallas has needed to spread its offense this season because it doesn't have a point-per-game player. Robertson is having a good season, but his 57 points in 59 games places him 30th in the NHL. Remember last season in the playoffs? Robertson scored two goals in 13 games in the first two rounds before regaining his scoring touch in the Western Conference Final against the Vegas Golden Knights. By that time it was too late, and the Stars were eliminated in six games. They're an even older team this season. I believe star power gets things done late in the season and into the playoffs, and Dallas simply doesn't have it. Hintz is a good player, but he's never had more than the 75 points (37 goals, 38 assists) in 73 games he had last season. He'll be hard-pressed to match that this season with 50 points in 57 games. I agree Oettinger and Wedgewood are a good goalie tandem, but only one can play at a time and a great goalie tandem in Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark didn't help the Boston Bruins avoid losing in the first round of the playoffs against the Florida Panthers last season. Conversely, MacKinnon (1.63), Rantanen (1.25), Makar (1.13) and forward Valeri Nichushkin (1.05) each average more than 1.00 points per game. They have nine players with at least 10 goals this season. Scoring by committee is a nice concept going into the playoffs, but in reality it's a time where the cream rises, and star players take charge. I'll take MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar in their prime ahead of Duchene, Pavelski and Seguin, who are on the back side of their respective careers. As far as Georgiev goes, I think he'll be much better in the playoffs having gone through last season's disappointment, and he has a better, more experienced team in front of him.