State Your Case: Stanley Cup Playoff hopes for Blues, Islanders

The New York Islanders are six points removed from a wild card in the Eastern Conference. The St. Louis Blues are five points out of a wild card from the West.

They meet at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, on Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET; HULU, ESPN+) with each trying desperately to get back into the Stanley Cup Playoff picture.

The Islanders (26-20-14) have won three straight games, but trail the Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning, who are tied for the first wild card in the East. They are also six points behind the Philadelphia Flyers for third place in the Metropolitan Division and have three games in hand.

The Blues (32-26-3) are chasing the Nashville Predators and the Los Angeles Kings, who are tied for the first wild card in the West. The Predators have won eight in a row; the Kings have won their past two games and seven of 10.

So, which team has the best chance to get hot, go on a streak of its own and find its way into the postseason?

That's the question before NHL.com senior director of editorial Shawn P. Roarke and staff writer Tom Gulitti in this installment of State Your Case.

Gulitti: The Islanders has been searching for consistency since before Patrick Roy replaced Lane Lambert as coach Jan. 20, but maybe have finally found it in winning their past three games against the Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, and Boston Bruins. The Stars and Bruins are among the teams battling for first in the NHL and the Red Wings won six in a row before their 5-3 loss to the Islanders on Feb. 29. So, this looks like a case of a team finding its stride at the right time with 22 games remaining and opportunity to make up ground not only on the Red Wings and Lightning, who hold the two wild cards in the East, but also the Flyers, who are third in the Metropolitan Division. New York is six points behind Tampa Bay, Detroit and Philadelphia. The Islanders have played three fewer games than the Lightning and Flyers and one fewer than the Red Wings, so those games in hand will help their cause. So will having head-to-head matchups left against Detroit on March 21, Tampa Bay on March 30 and Philadelphia on April 1.

Roarke: We all learned in 2019 to never write off the Blues, who literally went from last to first during the 2018-19 season. That institutional memory remains for this club, even though many of the faces have changed, including at coach, where earlier this season Drew Bannister replaced Craig Berube, the architect of the Blues’ ascent. Let’s not forget that Berube was a midseason replacement that season, brought in to address what ailed St. Louis under Mike Yeo. And though many of the faces are different, maybe the most important one remains in goalie Jordan Binnington. Then, Binnington was a fresh-faced newcomer who was called up and caught lightning in a bottle for three months. Today, he has gone through countless ups and downs, but remains capable of riding hot streak. Forget his pedestrian .912 save percentage and 2.83 goals-against average; there is more there and with the pressure on, Binnington can bring that out and carry the Blues past the Predators and Kings, who share the first wild card in the West.

Gulitti: I respect Binnington’s track record for getting hot and the Blues’ experience with comebacks like this, but it might be out of the players’ hands if general manager Doug Armstrong sells off some key players before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline at 3 p.m. ET on Friday. Forward Pavel Buchnevich, who is one of their best players, has been mentioned in multiple reports about potentially being moved before the Deadline for pieces for the future, which would hurt St. Louis’ chances of chasing down a playoff spot this season. I don’t envision Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello doing similar. Lamoriello might not swing a trade for a big-name rental player because of the tenuous position the Islanders are in, but I’m guessing he keeps his roster together and gives the players they have a chance to prove they can make the playoffs. He might even pull off a smaller depth deal to help supplement their lineup. Lamoriello didn’t hire Roy to give up on this season; the mandate is to make the playoffs. Roy has pushed players such as Mathew Barzal to play at another level and Barzal, who leads New York with 64 points (18 goals 46 assists) in 59 games, has responded along with the rest of the Islanders.

Roarke: What have the Islanders done this season to suggest they are a playoff team? They have six fewer wins than the Blues, have lost 14 games after regulation and have a minus-21 goal differential. It’s a testament to members of that team, including the aforementioned Barzal and goalie Ilya Sorokin among others. Yes, they have won three in a row, but were 1-3-2 in their six games before that, and the teams above them in the wild card and Metropolitan Division races refuse to yield ground. The Blues have shown more promise and have the young legs in Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Jake Neighbours to make a late charge and catch the Kings, who have been middling at best. Thomas, 24, has 69 points (20 goals, 49 assists) in 61 games. Kyrou, 25, has 47 points (19 goals, 28 assists) in 61 games and Neighbors has 20 goals in 61 games in his first full season in the NHL. St. Louis has two more games before the Deadline to convince Armstrong they deserve the opportunity to stand pat and make a run for the postseason. If they do, watch out.