State Your Case: Who wins Pacific Division?

With less than two weeks to go in the 2022-23 NHL regular season, the race for first place in the Pacific Division remains tight. The Vegas Golden Knights, Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers are separated by four points and each team has five games remaining.

The Golden Knights are in first place with 104 points after a 3-2 overtime loss at the Nashville Predators on Tuesday. The Kings were second with 100 points, and the Oilers third with 99, heading into their game at Los Angeles on Tuesday (10:30 p.m. ET; ESPN, SNW, SN NOW).
Who will emerge as the division winner, avoiding a first-round matchup against one of the other two teams?
That's the question posed to NHL.com senior writer Dan Rosen and staff writer Tracey Myers in the latest version of State Your Case:
Rosen: Let's go with the Oilers, because who doesn't love a good come-from-behind story. I can't call them the underdogs because expectations in Edmonton are high for this team. They'll have three 100-point scorers in forwards Connor McDavid (146), Leon Draisaitl (120) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (97). But that's not why I'm picking them. It's the way they're playing and their schedule, plus a little bit of a tiebreaker tossed in. Yes, the Oilers need to get two points against the Kings on Tuesday for this to really matter, as they did in a 2-0 win against them March 30, but I think they will. Go back to Jan. 11 and you'll see the Oilers have the best points percentage in the NHL in that span at .771, going 24-5-6 in 35 games. The Boston Bruins are at .770 (28-8-1 in 37 games). Close the gap to March 14 and the Oilers are 9-0-1 in that span, a .950 points percentage that is, yes, the best in the NHL, with Boston second at .833 (10-2-0). The Oilers have won four in a row. They're hot and don't appear to be slowing down. After playing the Kings, three of their last four games are against the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks, who they play twice. Those teams are in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. They also play the Colorado Avalanche. The Oilers are a combined 5-0-1 in their past six games against the Ducks, Sharks, Kings and Avalanche. In addition, if it came down to a tiebreaker for first, the Oilers will get it because of their 41 regulation wins, six more than both Los Angeles and Vegas. Crown them.
Myers:Yeah, the Oilers have been impressive lately. Who hasn't among the top three in the Pacific Division, though, right? But I'm going with the Kings. With their 4-1 win against the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday, the Kings reached the 100-point mark in their 77th game, the second-fewest needed to reach the mark in their history (76 games in 1974-75). They went 9-2-2 in March (.769) to keep pace near the top of the Pacific, and I see them closing their schedule out strong. Sure, it won't be easy. They have the Oilers on Tuesday, the Pacific-leading (for now) Golden Knights on Thursday and the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche, who are jockeying for position in the Central, on Saturday. Their final two regular-season games are against the Canucks, who they just defeated (4-1 on Sunday), and the Ducks, who they've beaten twice already. Forward Anze Kopitar remains seemingly ageless with 68 points (26 goals, 42 assists), second on the Kings to forward Kevin Fiala, who has 72 points (23 goals, 49 assists). Sure, there is no McDavid or Draisaitl on the Kings, but they've been steady, strong and I see them winning the Pacific.
Rosen: I can't sit here and argue with your points, Tracey. They're fair. The Kings are solid. Their schedule is harder, but if they can get through the Oilers, Golden Knights and Avalanche then they might very well win the division. But here's where I start talking about the key players in this race. Sorry, but it's obvious that the Kings and Golden Knights can't match up with McDavid and Draisaitl. I'm not even going to get into Nugent-Hopkins, who in his own right is having a huge season and can take over a game. But McDavid and Draisaitl have a history of doing it. They were the top two scorers in the playoffs last season with 33 and 32 points, respectively, and the Oilers played seven fewer games than the Tampa Bay Lightning and four fewer than the Avalanche. But they reached the Western Conference Final because of McDavid and Draisaitl. They're also why the Oilers will come back and finish first in the Pacific. Heck, they're the reason why the Oilers are even in the running right now. I mentioned the Oilers' NHL-best .771 points percentage since Jan. 11 in my first argument. Well, McDavid and Draisaitl each have 28 goals in the 35 games Edmonton has played in that span. That's tied for the most in the NHL. And since March 14, the past 10 games, Edmonton's 9-0-1 record, well, Draisaitl is first in the NHL in that span with 22 points (eight goals, 14 assists) and, you guessed it, McDavid is second with 19 (seven goals, 12 assists). Leave these two an opening and they'll take it. The opening exists, and they're going to take it to get Edmonton into first place.
Myers: Oh, no argument on what McDavid and Draisaitl can do. But I'm not looking at those two and their production as much as I'm looking at what the Kings won't give up at the other end compared to the Oilers. Los Angeles is back to being oh-so stingy. Since Jan. 1 (I picked that because it's just an easy date), the Kings are seventh in the NHL in goals-against per game (2.76). The Oilers are giving up 3.18 goals per game (16th) in that span. And I'm also giving the Kings the nod with their goaltending. Since Jan. 1, Pheonix Copley is 16-3-3 with a 2.70 goals-against average, .900 save percentage and one shutout in 25 games. Joonas Korpisalo, who was acquired by the Kings from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jonathan Quick on March 1, is 5-2-1 with a 1.75 GAA and .937 save percentage in eight games since the trade. The Kings will be facing some high-powered offenses down the stretch, including the Oilers, but I like their chances of stopping them en route to the Pacific crown.
Rosen: I just had to throw one more argument in to counter what Tracey just said about the Oilers and their goals-against. Yes, since Jan. 1, they're allowing 3.18 goals per game. They're also scoring 4.36 per game. I do not expect them to average 4.00 goals per game in the playoffs, but we're not talking about the playoffs. We're talking about five more games in the regular season. And since we're going down this road, let's go back to March 14, a date I keep referencing because the Oilers have played 10 games since then, which, like Tracey said about Jan. 1, is just an easy number of games to analyze. They're allowing 2.70 goals per game during that 10-game stretch (scoring 4.80). They have not allowed a goal in their past two games. Just saying.
Myers: Kudos on those back-to-back shutouts, 2-0 against the Kings and 6-0 against the Ducks (yes, I'm truly giving kudos, not being sarcastic for once). I'm still on Team Kings. I just think they'll wrap this up on a hot streak, perhaps starting with some revenge against the Oilers on Tuesday. They'll take advantage of three of their final five being at Crypto.com Arena, where they're 25-9-4 this season. Hey, I'm fully invested in seeing how this plays out regardless, but just you watch, after all this debating between us, the Golden Knights will win the division.