3 KEYS
1. Moving on from Stamkos
The Lightning are entering the first season of the post-Steven Stamkos era. Stamkos, Tampa Bay's all-time leading scorer with 555 goals and 1,137 points in 1,082 games from 2008-24, signed a four-year, $32 million contract ($8 million average annual value) with the Nashville Predators on July 1. The Lightning opted to move on from Stamkos, who at this time last season expressed his displeasure that there were no talks about a new contract. He wanted to stay, but the sides couldn’t agree on a contract and the Lightning instead signed forward Jake Guentzel, who signed a seven-year, $63 million contract ($9 million AAV) July 1. Victor Hedman is taking over as Lightning captain, a role Stamkos held the past 10 years. It's a big change for Tampa Bay; Stamkos was its clear leader, and he had 81 points (40 goals, 41 assists) in 79 games last season. It's a lot to replace and the Lightning have to find a way to mitigate the impact of not having Stamkos any longer.
2. Guentzel's impact
Guentzel is not Stamkos. They score in different ways. But Guentzel needs to be an impact scorer for the Lightning in the way Stamkos was, albeit in a more balanced way, if possible. Stamkos scored 40 goals last season, with 19 coming on the power play. Tampa Bay is hoping Guentzel makes a bigger scoring impact at even strength while continuing to help the power play stay at or near the top of the League. The Lightning were No. 1 in the NHL on the power play last season at 28.6 percent. Guentzel scored 30 goals in 67 games split between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes last season; 25 were at even strength. Since 2020-21, Guentzel has scored 129 goals in 277 games with 100 coming at even strength. Stamkos has scored 133 in 279 games with 74 at even strength.
3. Kucherov's encore
What will Nikita Kucherov do next? If he's the Kucherov from the past several seasons, then you can pretty much lock in a 100-point season, if healthy. But the Lightning will have a new look on their power play because of Stamkos' absence and the inclusion of Guentzel instead. Kucherov is the catalyst of the power play, so his adjustment will play a big role in determining the success, or lack thereof, of Tampa Bay's power play. Kucherov led the League in scoring last season with an NHL career-high 144 points (44 goals, 100 assists). He became the fifth player in League history to have 100 assists in a single season, joining Connor McDavid, who also had 100 assists last season, Wayne Gretzky (11 times), Mario Lemieux (1988-89) and Bobby Orr (1970-71). Kucherov has put up at least 100 points four times in the past seven seasons. The three times that he did not reach 100 points, he played fewer than 70 games. Kucherov was limited to 68 games in 2019-20 because of COVID, he did not play a regular-season game in 2020-21, and he played 47 games in 2021-22 because of a groin injury.