Mailbag: Jets' up-and-down start; importance of winning division

Here is the Dec. 11 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X and Bluesky. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom on X, or @drosennhl.bsky.social on Bluesky, and tag them with #OvertheBoards.

Which team are the Jets really? The one from the beginning of the season or the one struggling right now? -- @littlesiggi.bsky.social

Certainly in the middle, but their skill, depth and goaltending suggests they are closer to the team that got off to a record-setting 15-1-0 start, the fastest team to 15 wins in NHL history, and less the team that had lost eight of 13 games prior to their 8-1 win against the Boston Bruins on Tuesday. The team that got off to a 15-1-0 start was healthy and could consistently play the same lineup and the same way. The team that was 5-8-0 in that 13-game stretch played without forward Nikolaj Ehlers (left leg) and eight straight without defenseman Dylan Samberg (broken foot).

The Jets in that 15-1-0 stretch were averaging 4.56 goals per game and allowing 2.13, so more than twice for than against. Their power play was 42.2 percent. They had a plus-39 goal differential. They had 11 forwards play all 16 games, and Rasmus Kupari played 15. They had five defensemen play all 16 games, with Logan Stanley (11 games) and Haydn Fleury (five) splitting time. Connor Hellebuyck started 13 games and Eric Comrie started three. It was as remarkable as it was unsustainable. No team stays that good, that hot and that healthy for much longer than the Jets were.

A telling stat in those 16 games was Winnipeg's 48.7 shot-attempts percentage, which was 20th in the League through Nov. 13. If you're having that kind of success and below 50 percent in shot attempts for versus shot attempts against per game than you're likely going to regress at some point. In addition, the Jets had an .851 save percentage on high-danger shots against in the first 16 games (16 goals on 108 shots), but it went to .780 percent in the next 13 (22 goals on 100 shots). That's also an average of 7.89 high-danger shots against per game as opposed to the 6.75 they were allowing previously. In addition, their power play dropped to 14.6 percent in the 13 games before Tuesday.

Regression was bound to happen. It's happened, but that's why the 15-1-0 start was so important. It gave the Jets the regression cushion.

Which Canadian team needs to win their division more, Toronto or Winnipeg? -- @nashman92

We can't play the "If the Stanley Cup Playoffs started today" game in December. That's a futile exercise, so it's hard to answer this with in-depth analysis.

Initially, it looks like the Maple Leafs are the answer only because it will likely guarantee that they don't have to play the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference First Round and possibly avoid the Boston Bruins, too. The Panthers and Bruins have knocked Toronto out of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, so while revenge is nice, maybe an opponent who isn't as familiar with the Maple Leafs would be better early in the playoffs. It's also fair at this point to look at the bottom half of the Eastern Conference standings and say it is not as strong as that of the Western Conference.

As of Wednesday, the Colorado Avalanche and Vancouver Canucks are the two wild-card teams in the West, and the Tampa Bay Lightning and Philadelphia Flyers are the two in the East. If you're the Jets, winning the Central Division could help you avoid the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars in the Western Conference First Round, but that could set up a date with the Avalanche, who eliminated the Jets from the first round in five games last season.

Any talk about the use by Chris Drury of waivers as a leverage against the no-trade clause? -- @otghockey.bsky.social

Having spent the past two days at the NHL Board of Governors meeting in South Florida, yes, the Rangers were a topic of conversation among people there, including media members. Yes, their general manager's use of waivers as leverage against the modified no-trade clause that forward Barclay Goodrow and defenseman Jacob Trouba had in their contracts was also a topic of conversation, but it was just conversation, nothing official or on the record. This might become a topic when the NHL and NHL Players' Association convene to hammer out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, discussion that could begin shortly after Jan. 1.

Trouba said the Rangers used waivers as "a threat" to get him to agree to a trade. He eventually went to the Anaheim Ducks. Goodrow was put on waivers by the Rangers in the offseason and the San Jose Sharks claimed him. In each case, Drury was able to get those two contracts off the Rangers' books.

The key in all this is the Rangers did not break or bend rules in the CBA.

"It's my job, and 31 other GMs jobs, to try and do everything we can to help our team," Drury said Saturday. "There's things at our disposal in the CBA. I'm not trying to mess with players. I'm just trying to do the best I can to move the team forward and make changes that are necessary."

Agree or disagree with tactics, the Rangers utilized the rules in the current CBA to make these transactions possible. It's not clear now if there will be fallout from what they did that could lead to a change in the CBA or repercussions in future potential contract negotiations.

Is it time for the Devils to bench Dawson Mercer and/or Timo Meier? Devils really need both players to start producing or watch some games from the press box. -- @amazingjr87.bsky.social

Calling on the coach to bench impact players makes no sense and never will. How does it make the New Jersey Devils a better team if Meier and Mercer are watching from the press box? Who is replacing them? Meier is sixth on the Devils with 20 points (nine goals, 11 assists) in 30 games. He's a top-six forward, an impact scorer. Nobody coming into the lineup for him is better. Mercer is seventh with 14 points (six goals, eight assists) in 31 games. He's a versatile middle-six forward who can play center or wing. Nobody coming into the lineup for him is better.

Do the Devils need more from Meier and Mercer? Yes. They need production from forwards other than Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Meier, especially, is a physical, imposing power forward (6-foot-1, 220 pounds) who New Jersey needs to be impactful, but to bench him because he hasn't produced as much as you'd like is simply just not the answer. It's the same with Mercer. There are plenty of options at coach Sheldon Keefe's disposal, options that he's been utilizing to try to get more out of the rest of the lineup such as changing lines, moving Mercer to the middle.

Keefe controls ice time. Mercer played 14:12 in a 4-0 loss to the Avalanche on Sunday, his lowest time on ice since 13:56 against Utah on Oct. 14. Meier played fewer minutes in recent games before skating 19:48 on Sunday. Neither of them needs to be in the press box. That's the nuclear option and neither are remotely close to that.