NHL EDGE stats: Reasons Devils can still make playoffs despite injuries

NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at how the New Jersey Devils could still make the Stanley Cup Playoffs after season-ending injuries to forward Jack Hughes and defenseman Dougie Hamilton.

The New Jersey Devils will be without top forward Jack Hughes (shoulder surgery) for the rest of the season and are expected to be without No. 1 defenseman Dougie Hamilton (lower body) for the rest of the regular season, putting their championship hopes, and even their Stanley Cup Playoff chances, in question.

But with plenty of other advanced stats standouts, New Jersey still has some breathing room in the standings. Here are four reasons the Devils can hold onto a postseason spot and still be a formidable opponent if they qualify:

1. Jesper Bratt’s all-around prowess

Bratt quietly has become one of the most consistently productive players in the NHL, regardless of linemates and the health of his teammates, in recent seasons; he’s had at least 73 points in four straight seasons (80 points in 69 games this season) and has averaged 1.00 points per game since 2021-22 (309 points in 309 games; tied for 20th in NHL).

Bratt also has taken his game up a notch with his team facing adversity in recent weeks; he’s had points on 12 of the Devils’ 20 goals in the seven games since Hughes was injured, including a stretch of three straight three-point games (third player to do that this season, along with David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins and Roope Hintz of the Dallas Stars).

Per NHL EDGE stats, Bratt is among the forward leaders in many key advanced stats categories and has become the Devils’ most reliable scorer during their last-ditch effort to remain in playoff position.

• Midrange shots on goal: 66 (93rd percentile)
• Midrange goals: 10 (94th percentile)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 152 (93rd percentile)
• Total skating distance: 214.63 miles (95th percentile)
• Top shot speed: 91.32 mph (86th percentile)
• Offensive zone time percentage, power play: 63.3 percent (91st percentile)

2. Goalie tandem

The Devils are tied with the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators for the most team shutouts (eight each; Jake Allen: four; Jacob Markstrom: three; Nico Daws: one) this season. Per NHL EDGE stats, Allen is one of three goalies to rank in the top 10 of high-danger save percentage (.830; seventh) and midrange save percentage (.929; third), joining Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets and Darcy Kuemper of the Los Angeles Kings. The Devils, as a team, are tied for fifth in team save percentage (.904).

Markstrom, who missed time because of injury earlier in the season, still is among the leaders in goal differential (plus-23; tied for ninth in NHL). Although the Devils face an uphill battle ahead, it’s worth noting Markstrom led the NHL in high-danger save percentage last season with the Calgary Flames (.857; minimum 30 games), proving his high ceiling when facing pressure.

3. Luke Hughes' elevated role

The Devils defenseman, since the game when Hamilton was injured March 4, has seven points (one goal, six assists), including four power-play assists, during his past seven games. In addition to taking on a bigger role on both ends without Hamilton and his brother, Jack, Luke is tasked with maintaining the Devils’ potent power play, which ranks fourth in the NHL (27.4 percent). Per NHL EDGE stats, New Jersey is tied for sixth in offensive zone time percentage with the man advantage (59.9 percent) this season.

Hughes checks plenty of boxes among the defenseman EDGE stats leaders to show he has breakout potential for the rest of the season:

• Top skating speed: 23.58 mph (98th percentile; sixth among defensemen)
• 20-plus mph speed bursts: 106 (97th percentile; eighth among defensemen)
• Average skating distance per 60 minutes: 9.28 miles (99th percentile; tied for second among defensemen behind Rasmus Dahlin’s 9.29)
• High-danger shots on goal: 10 (94th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 31 (93rd percentile)
• Midrange goals: 4 (91st percentile)

4. Other secondary players stepping up

The Devils have seen an uptick in production from wing Timo Meier since Jack Hughes and Hamilton were injured. Meier has six points (four goals, two assists) and 23 shots on goal in his past seven games and is sixth among forwards in 5-on-5 shot attempts since March 1 (47).

Meier has excelled in midrange areas (63 midrange shots on goal, 92nd percentile; 11 midrange goals, 96th percentile), but his high-danger shooting percentage (11.5 percent; below 50th percentile) is low considering he ranks high in high-danger shots on goal (52; 88th percentile).

Under new coach Sheldon Keefe this season, the Devils have had some depth players elevate their play at various points, most notably a sneaky offseason addition in forward Stefan Noesen. Noesen ranks among the forward leaders in high-danger shots on goal (81; 98th percentile) and high-danger goals (13; 90th percentile) and will be relied upon more heavily down the stretch.

New Jersey, as a team, ranks sixth in high-danger shots on goal (549) but is shooting 18.0 percent from high-danger areas (sixth lowest in NHL); the Devils have scored 99 high-danger goals (tied for 13th). Although New Jersey is now without Jack Hughes and Hamilton, better shooting fortunes on higher-probability looks could help offset their absences.

Captain Nico Hischier has a four-game point streak (two goals, two assists) on a line mostly with Meier and Noesen, and center Cody Glass (No. 6 pick in 2017 NHL Draft by Vegas Golden Knights; acquired from Pittsburgh Penguins on March 7) has been a surprise with five points (two goals, three assists) in five games since the trade while playing mostly on a line with Bratt and Erik Haula. Hischier, who has a career-high 12 power-play goals this season (tied for seventh in NHL), leads the team in high-danger shots on goal (83; eighth in NHL) and high-danger goals (19; tied for ninth).

But in New Jersey’s six games without both Jack Hughes and Hamilton since March 7, they have the seventh-worst shot attempts percentage at 5-on-5 (46.6 percent); they missed the playoffs last season under coaches Lindy Ruff and Travis Green when Hamilton was limited to 20 games and Jack Hughes was limited to 62 games.

So in addition to Bratt, Luke Hughes and the goalie tandem, the Devils will need more from forwards Meier, Dawson Mercer and especially defenseman Simon Nemec (No. 2 pick in 2022 NHL Draft) to remain in a playoff spot down the stretch of the season.

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