Mailbag: Coyotes, Sabres off to surprising starts; teams needing spark

Here is the Dec. 6 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Which team thus far has been the most pleasant surprise and which has been the most disappointing head scratcher? -- @baYsYckwrYteboY

Most pleasant surprise: Arizona Coyotes

Most disappointing head scratcher: Buffalo Sabres

The Coyotes have won five games in a row, all against the last five teams to win the Stanley Cup. The streak started with a 2-0 win at the Vegas Golden Knights (2023 champions) on Nov. 25. The past four have come at home at Mullett Arena: 3-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning (2020 and 2021 champs), 4-3 in overtime against the Colorado Avalanche (2022), 4-1 against the St. Louis Blues (2019) and 6-0 against the Washington Capitals (2018). Add it up, and the Coyotes have won the five games by a combined 19-5.

Maybe the biggest surprise is the fact that they're doing it with Connor Ingram in net and slowly taking over as the No. 1 goalie. Ingram is 5-0-0 with a 1.00 goals-against average, .968 save percentage and two shutouts in the five-game winning streak. He is 11-3-0 with a 2.23 GAA and .930 save percentage in 15 games. If Ingram keeps it up, he will play his way into the Vezina Trophy conversation. He had seven wins in 30 NHL games entering the season.

Arizona is 11th in goals per game (3.33) and tied for 10th in goals-against per game (2.83). It has the fifth-ranked power play (26.8 percent) and is 14th on the penalty kill (81.2 percent). It's time we start talking more about the Coyotes for what they're doing on the ice instead of where they play their home games.

I picked the Sabres to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I spoke with forwards Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka on separate occasions before training camp and they each were confident that the time was now. But the Sabres have been wildly inconsistent, which is the sign of a young team that still hasn't figured it out. You'll get a game like their 5-1 win against the New York Rangers on Nov. 27, when they play together, strong in front of the net and for 60 minutes. You watch that and think maybe they can build off that win, that it should be repeatable because it wasn't a fluke or based on one player having a star performance. It was a team effort. It came after a 7-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils, so you think maybe the Sabres got it figured out. But then they lose 6-4 at St. Louis and 6-2 at the Carolina Hurricanes. That can't happen to a team that needs to take the next step this season. The next step is to be a playoff team. The Sabres missed by one point last season. They're running out of time to turn things around.

Which NHL teams need to make trades and other decisions to their rosters and coaching staffs before their seasons are lost? -- @MrEd315

The Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders need defensemen. The Islanders are playing without Adam Pelech (upper body, long-term injured reserve). New Jersey is playing without Dougie Hamilton (surgery for torn pectoral muscle, out indefinitely). Toronto is without Timothy Liljegren (lower body), John Klingberg (hip) and Mark Giordano (broken finger). That's only part of the problem. The other part is how they play. The Islanders are too loose and prone to turnovers that fuel the opponent's rush game. The Devils are not tight enough in front of the net. The penalty kill has been a major problem for the Devils and Islanders. The Maple Leafs aren't aggressive enough on the blue line and lack some old-school snarl and bite in that area. They're not at risk of their seasons being a wash if they don't add or make changes soon, but eventually I think all three will have to improve their back end to be dangerous this season.

The Seattle Kraken need a goal-scorer. They're averaging 2.65 goals per game, 29th in the League. They won with a by-committee scoring approach last season that featured 13 players with at least 13 goals, six with at least 20. They're not getting that this season. Four players currently have five or more goals. Only the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks (three) have fewer players with at least five goals. The Kraken, allowing 3.42 goals per game, need to defend better too.

The Sabres need a jolt for the reasons I mentioned above and many more, but they need to start playing better with who they have before they consider sacrificing future assets, such as draft picks and prospects, to give them a push this season. At this point I can't say the Sabres should not be a rental buyer before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline on March 8. They're not in a window of their growth to be trading assets for a player on an expiring contract who might give them a short-term bump but will have zero impact on them long term. They're not Stanley Cup ready yet. However, if they start playing better and can move up the standings, then maybe adding a player or two in advance of the deadline would be the right thing to do to push them over the top. The Sabres haven't been to the playoffs since 2011. If they can turn things around, it'll be worth the push to get in this season to give their fans more hope and their players the postseason experience they need.

At what point in the season if you're Jim Nill do you consider doing another one-year extension for Joe Pavelski? -- @nashman92

I have to think this is more on Pavelski than on the Dallas Stars or general manager Jim Nill. Pavelski is having another age-defying season. He's 39 years old and he leads the Stars with 24 points (11 goals, 13 assists). He's playing on a one-year, $3.5 million contract that has the potential for an additional $2 million in performance bonuses. If Pavelski wants to play into his 40s (he turns 40 on July 11, 2024), the Stars should be able to lock him up for at least another season. I don't see why he'd want to leave Dallas. He's established there in his fifth season with the Stars. The team is good, a legit Stanley Cup contender. He fits in. He's a big part of the room and the culture they've built. He has a long history with coach Peter DeBoer. It flat out works. Pavelski signed his current contract on Jan. 1. His previous one-year contract for the 2022-23 season was signed on March 11, 2022. I could see him signing another one-year contract at some point midway through this season if he wants to keep playing.

With the salary cap increasing next season do you expect players who signed bridge deals to now sign long term? More money available could mean more opportunity for free agents to get a higher AAV, would you agree? -- @theashcity

The possibility is there, but it's not linear across the board. The cap projection for next season is currently $87.7 million, an increase of $4.2 million from this season. It's a nice bump, the biggest we've seen since the cap rose $4.5 million from $75 million in the 2017-18 season to $79.5 million in 2018-19, but it doesn't mean there will be an influx of long-term contracts. If the cap can go up $4.2 million next season, what's to say it won't go up another $4 million or more for 2025-26. What's to say it won't be approaching or exceeding $100 million by 2027-28? That's enticing to players who are willing to bet on themselves. Why lock in at a $5 million average annual value for six years when it can be $5 million for three and maybe $10 million over the following three? In that example you're gambling $15 million, but we are seeing players willing to bet on themselves of late. Auston Matthews (four years), Trevor Zegras (three years) and Vince Dunn (four years) are examples.

We saw a lot of one-year contracts this past offseason and much of that was cap related; teams up against it and not willing to go long term, and players that saw they could get a slice of the pie now and maybe a bigger slice when the cap goes up. That could be the case going forward too. I think you'll see teams looking to lock players into an AAV that will be manageable as the cap goes up, but players could be in the mindset of betting on themselves and take the shorter- term contract with the hope that the next deal will provide them a bigger AAV. It's likely that some teams will not even use the extra cap space available to them in the offseason to allow for wiggle room to add during the season.