Stanley Cup Final preview: Oilers vs. Panthers

The Stanley Cup Final will feature the Florida Panthers of the Eastern Conference and Edmonton Oilers of the Western Conference in a best-of-7 series, which starts Saturday at Amerant Bank Arena. Today, NHL.com previews the 2024 Stanley Cup Final.

(2P) Edmonton Oilers vs. (1A) Florida Panthers

Oilers: 49-27-6, 104 points; defeated Los Angeles Kings 4-1 in first round, Vancouver Canucks 4-3 in second round, Dallas Stars 4-2 in conference final

Panthers: 52-24-6, 110 points; defeated Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1 in first round, Boston Bruins 4-2 in second round, New York Rangers 4-2 in conference final

Season series: FLA 2-0-0; EDM 0-2-0

Game 1: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS)

Connor McDavid has been a man on a mission. The Florida Panthers have been a team on a mission.

Their paths will collide when McDavid and the Oilers take on the Panthers in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on Saturday.

McDavid will play in his first Final after nine seasons in the NHL. Together with Leon Draisaitl, McDavid has been driving Edmonton in its run to its first Final since 2006 and quest to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1990. McDavid, the Oilers captain and a three-time winner of the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player, leads the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 31 points (five goals, 26 assists) in 18 games, including a goal and an assist in a 2-1 series-clinching victory against the Dallas Stars in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final on Sunday.

“There’s been lots of growing pains, for sure, lots of lessons, and obviously it feels great to be in this position,” McDavid said. “This was always part of the plan, and it feels good to be here today.”

Led by their captain Aleksander Barkov, the Panthers have been determined to get back to the Final and win their first championship since losing to the Vegas Golden Knights in five games in the Final last season. Florida defeated the New York Rangers 2-1 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final on Saturday to become the first Stanley Cup runner-up to return to the Final the following season since the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2009 and second to do it since the Oilers in 1984.

Each of those teams won the Cup in its return trip to the Final.

“Obviously, it’s going to be a challenge,” Panthers forward Carter Verhaeghe said. “They have some pretty special players over there and definitely going to embrace it. I think any time you go against some of the best players in the world it’s always fun and challenging. … So, it’s going to be a good series, I think.”

The Oilers and Panthers each won three straight after trailing 2-1 in the conference finals, but they have otherwise followed different roads. After going 3-9-1 in its first 13 games and replacing coach Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch on Nov. 12, Edmonton was a League-best 46-18-5 over the remainder of the regular season.

Florida survived playing without forward Sam Bennett (lower body) for 12 of its first 13 and defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour (offseason shoulder surgeries) for its first 16 games to finish first in the Atlantic Division and has yet to face elimination in the playoffs. The Oilers, who are trying to be the first Canada-based team to win the Cup since the Montreal Canadiens in 1993, faced elimination twice after trailing the Vancouver Canucks 3-2 in the second round before winning that series in seven games.

This will be the first playoff series between Florida and Edmonton. The Panthers won each of the regular-season games between them: 5-3 on Nov. 20 and 5-1 on Dec. 16.

“As far as the way the play it’s a different style than [the Stars],” Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins said. “Every series is different. They’re fast-paced, physical, have a good power play. We’ll obviously take some time here to have a look at their game. We only saw them twice and it was probably not our two best games that we played against them.”

Game breakers

Panthers: Expect Matthew Tkachuk to be fired up to face Edmonton, a familiar rival from his six seasons with the Calgary Flames before he was traded to Florida in 2022. The 26-year-old forward leads the Panthers with 19 points (five goals, 14 assists) in 17 games this postseason after leading them with 24 points (11 goals, 13 assists) in 20 games last season before a fractured sternum sidelined him for the last game of the Final. Tkachuk has 26 points (10 goals, 16 assists) in 32 career regular-season games against the Oilers, including 23 (nine goals, 14 assists) in 28 games with the Flames. Tkachuk had four points (three goals, one assist) when Calgary lost to Edmonton in five games in the 2022 Western Conference Second Round.

Oilers: Draisaitl, who is second in the playoffs with 28 points (10 goals, 18 assists) in 18 games, qualifies for this as well, but McDavid is proving again to be one of the most prolific scorers in NHL history. The 27-year-old forward is the sixth player to have multiple playoff years with at least 30 points (also 2022), joining Wayne Gretzky (six times), Mark Messier (three), Jari Kurri (two), Mario Lemieux (two) and Nikita Kucherov (two), and the second to do it multiple times before the Final (Gretzky, four times). His 26 assists are tied for sixth-most in a playoff year, five behind the record of 31 set by Gretzky in 1987-88. McDavid scored a highlight-reel toe-drag power-play goal and set up Zach Hyman’s winning power-play goal in Edmonton’s Game 6 victory against Dallas.

Goaltending

Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed two goals or fewer in 13 of 17 playoff games, including five of the six in the Eastern Conference Final. A two-time winner of the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goalie and a finalist again this season, the 35-year-old is 12-5 with a 2.20 goals-against average, .908 save percentage and one shutout, starting and finishing all 17 games for the Panthers in the playoffs. Bobrovsky was 4-2 with a 1.89 GAA, .921 save percentage and one shutout in the conference final. His .855 save percentage against high-danger shots on goal (106 saves, 124 shots), according to NHL EDGE, is the best among goalies to play at least five games in the playoffs.

Oilers: Stuart Skinner is 11-5 with a 2.50 GAA. .897 save percentage and one shutout in 16 playoff games (all starts) but was at his best in the Western Conference Final, going 4-2 with a 1.91 GAA and .922 save percentage, including stopping 33 of 34 shots in Game 6. Since retaking Edmonton’s net after Calvin Pickard started Games 4 and 5 of the second round against Vancouver, the 25-year-old is 6-2 with a 1.81 GAA and .920 save percentage and gave up two goals or fewer in seven of the eight games. His .842 save percentage against high-danger shots on goal (80 saves, 92 shots) is second best among goalies to play at least five games in the playoffs. Pickard is 1-1 with a 2.21 GAA and .915 save percentage in three playoff appearances (two starts).

Special teams

Panthers: Florida is clicking at 23.3 percent (14-for-60) on the power play in the playoffs and found some rhythm in going 5-for-19 (26.3 percent) in the conference final against a Rangers PK that was at 89.5 percent in the first two rounds. Sam Reinhart, who led the NHL with 27 power-play goals during the regular season, scored three of his four power-play goals in the playoffs against New York, including the overtime winner in Game 4. The Panthers are second in the playoffs on the penalty kill at 88.2 percent and suffocated the Rangers previously red-hot power play (31.1 percent) in the conference final, holding it to one goal on 15 opportunities (6.7 percent). They will face an even bigger challenge against the Oilers power play, though.

Oilers: Edmonton is first in the NHL on the power play at 37.3 percent (19-for-51) and rebounded from going 0-for-6 with the man-advantage in the first four games of the conference final to go 4-for-5 in the last two games. Draisaitl is first in the playoffs with six power-play goals and Hyman is tied for second with five, including his game-winner Sunday. The Oilers also lead the NHL with a 93.9 percent efficiency on the penalty kill, allowing only three power-play goals in 49 times short-handed. Edmonton was 14-for-14 on the penalty kill against Dallas and has killed off 28 consecutive power plays since giving up two power-play goals in Game 3 of the second round against Vancouver.

Numbers to know

Panthers: Verhaeghe is the Panthers’ all-time leader with 24 playoff goals, including nine game-winners, five in overtime (tied for third in NHL history). The forward leads the Panthers with nine goals and is tied with Barkov for second on the team with 17 points in 17 games this postseason. Florida is 7-3 in one-goal games in the playoffs and 17-5 in the past two postseasons for an NHL-best .773 winning percentage. The Panthers have outscored opponents 24-11 in third periods. Florida is second in the playoffs in limiting opponents to 24.5 shots on goal per game. The Panthers had a 55-39 advantage in high-danger shots on goal against New York, including 34-16 in the last three games.

Oilers: Evan Bouchard is third in the NHL and first among defenseman with 27 playoff points (six goals, 21 assists) in 18 games. He needs three points to become the fourth defenseman to reach 30 in a playoff year and join Paul Coffey (37 in 1985), Brian Leetch (34 in 1994) and Al MacInnis (31 in 1989). Edmonton is 7-4 in one-goal games in the playoffs. The Oilers have outscored opponents 23-13 in first periods and 26-14 in second periods, but they have been outscored 19-12 in the third. The Oilers are third in the NHL in holding opponents to 25 shots on goal per game in the playoffs. Edmonton had a 50-38 advantage in high-danger shots on goal against Dallas.

X-factors

Panthers: Bennett -- To match or even contain McDavid and/or Draisaitl, the Panthers will need their top two centers, Barkov and Bennett, to stay healthy and physical on both ends of the ice. Bennett, who has been limited to 12 of Florida’s 17 games because of an injury this postseason, has 10 points (six goals, four assists) playing mostly on a line with elite wing Tkachuk and ranks fourth on the Panthers in points per game (0.83) -- ahead of notable offensive players like Reinhart (0.71), Montour (0.53) and Vladimir Tarasenko (0.35). Bennett has a three-game playoff goal streak and had four points (two goals, two assists) in two regular-season games against the Oilers. -- Pete Jensen

Oilers: Adam Henrique -- Given Florida’s strong scoring depth this postseason, Edmonton may need a big series, and perhaps a clutch goal in the later stages, from Henrique. The 34-year-old forward, acquired from the Anaheim Ducks prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6, has been limited to 10 of the Oilers’ 18 playoff games because of an injury but has chipped in with four points (two goals, two assists). Three of Henrique’s seven career playoff goals have been game-winning goals, with two coming in overtime; both of those overtime goals were series-clinching goals for the New Jersey Devils in 2012, with one coming in double overtime against the Panthers in Game 7 of the first round that postseason. Henrique also had three points (one goal, two assists) in two games against Florida while playing for Anaheim this regular season. -- Pete Jensen

They said it

“They’ve got an unbelievable power play and two of the best players in the world, so it’s going to be a great challenge for us to try and stop them. The more we can stop them, the more effective it’s going to be for us.” -- Panthers forward Sam Reinhart

“You don’t come back here often. Just trying to make the most of it, enjoy it. sat there, seven minutes into the third and the crowd was loud, just trying to enjoy the moment. At the same time, not satisfied at all. I’ve been here before (win the Nashville Predators in 2017) and I know how much it [stinks] to lose a final. Not looking to do that again.” -- Oilers defenseman Mattias Ekholm

Will win if ...

Panthers: Florida wore down New York with its forecheck and grinding physical game and will have to do the same to slow down Edmonton and win the Stanley Cup. Barkov, the Selke Trophy winner as the NHL’s top defensive forward this season, and defenseman Gustav Forsling will no longer be underrated if they can contain McDavid and Draisaitl the way they have other top offensive players. The Panthers were able to win the special teams battle against a Rangers team that was dominant on the power play and penalty kill in the first two rounds and will need to at least keep it close to even against the Oilers. Limiting trips to the penalty box would be a good first step.

Oilers: Everything begins with McDavid and Draisaitl and the special teams, but Edmonton’s defense will be tested like it has not been previously by Florida’s incessant forecheck and physicality. If the Oilers can break the puck out of their zone quickly and cleanly and limit the time they spend defending, that will give their skilled players more time and energy to go to work at the offensive end. Edmonton probably doesn’t get enough credit for how well it has defended in the playoffs and will need to continue so in this series. And Skinner must at least maintain his level from the conference final, particularly the last three games when he allowed only total four goals. Otherwise, the Panthers have the offensive skill to take advantage.

How they look

Panthers projected lineup

Carter Verhaeghe -- Aleksander Barkov -- Sam Reinhart

Matthew Tkachuk -- Sam Bennett – Evan Rodrigues 

Eetu Luostarinen -- Anton Lundell -- Vladimir Tarasenko

Steven Lorentz -- Kevin Stenlund -- Kyle Okposo

Gustav Forsling -- Aaron Ekblad

Niko Mikkola -- Brandon Montour

Oliver Ekman-Larsson -- Dmitry Kulikov

Sergei Bobrovsky

Anthony Stolarz

Scratched: Ryan Lomberg, Nick Cousins, Tobias Bjornfot, Uvis Balinskis, Josh Mahura, Jonah Gadjovich 

Injured: None

Oilers projected lineup

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -- Connor McDavid -- Zach Hyman

Ryan McLeod -- Leon Draisaitl -- Corey Perry

Dylan Holloway -- Adam Henrique -- Evander Kane

Mattias Janmark -- Derek Ryan -- Connor Brown

Mattias Ekholm -- Evan Bouchard

Darnell Nurse -- Brett Kulak

Philip Broberg -- Cody Ceci

Stuart Skinner

Calvin Pickard

Scratched: Sam Carrick, Vincent Desharnais, Warren Foegele, Sam Gagner

Injured: Troy Stecher (ankle)