Lightning season preview: Entering new era with Guentzel

The 2024-25 NHL season starts Oct. 4. With training camps underway, NHL.com is taking a look at the three keys, the inside scoop on roster questions, and the projected lineup for each of the 32 teams. Today, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Coach: Jon Cooper (13th season)

Last season: 45-29-8; fourth place in Atlantic Division, lost in Eastern Conference First Round

3 KEYS

1. Moving on from Stamkos

The Lightning are entering the first season of the post-Steven Stamkos era. Stamkos, Tampa Bay's all-time leading scorer with 555 goals and 1,137 points in 1,082 games from 2008-24, signed a four-year, $32 million contract ($8 million average annual value) with the Nashville Predators on July 1. The Lightning opted to move on from Stamkos, who at this time last season expressed his displeasure that there were no talks about a new contract. He wanted to stay, but the sides couldn’t agree on a contract and the Lightning instead signed forward Jake Guentzel, who signed a seven-year, $63 million contract ($9 million AAV) July 1. Victor Hedman is taking over as Lightning captain, a role Stamkos held the past 10 years. It's a big change for Tampa Bay; Stamkos was its clear leader, and he had 81 points (40 goals, 41 assists) in 79 games last season. It's a lot to replace and the Lightning have to find a way to mitigate the impact of not having Stamkos any longer.

2. Guentzel's impact

Guentzel is not Stamkos. They score in different ways. But Guentzel needs to be an impact scorer for the Lightning in the way Stamkos was, albeit in a more balanced way, if possible. Stamkos scored 40 goals last season, with 19 coming on the power play. Tampa Bay is hoping Guentzel makes a bigger scoring impact at even strength while continuing to help the power play stay at or near the top of the League. The Lightning were No. 1 in the NHL on the power play last season at 28.6 percent. Guentzel scored 30 goals in 67 games split between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes last season; 25 were at even strength. Since 2020-21, Guentzel has scored 129 goals in 277 games with 100 coming at even strength. Stamkos has scored 133 in 279 games with 74 at even strength.

3. Kucherov's encore

What will Nikita Kucherov do next? If he's the Kucherov from the past several seasons, then you can pretty much lock in a 100-point season, if healthy. But the Lightning will have a new look on their power play because of Stamkos' absence and the inclusion of Guentzel instead. Kucherov is the catalyst of the power play, so his adjustment will play a big role in determining the success, or lack thereof, of Tampa Bay's power play. Kucherov led the League in scoring last season with an NHL career-high 144 points (44 goals, 100 assists). He became the fifth player in League history to have 100 assists in a single season, joining Connor McDavid, who also had 100 assists last season, Wayne Gretzky (11 times), Mario Lemieux (1988-89) and Bobby Orr (1970-71). Kucherov has put up at least 100 points four times in the past seven seasons. The three times that he did not reach 100 points, he played fewer than 70 games. Kucherov was limited to 68 games in 2019-20 because of COVID, he did not play a regular-season game in 2020-21, and he played 47 games in 2021-22 because of a groin injury.

ROSTER RUNDOWN

Making the cut

Gage Goncalves led Syracuse of the American Hockey League with 58 points (13 goals, 45 assists) in 69 games last season. He also played in two NHL games with the Lightning and did not have a point. He's playing on a one-year, two-way contract, so he can be sent back to the AHL, but Goncalves has a chance to make the NHL roster with a strong camp. Conor Geekie might be a long shot because the Lightning could send the 20-year-old to Syracuse to let him feel his way into professional hockey after he played the last three full seasons in the Western Hockey League. Geekie, though, is Tampa Bay's best prospect, acquired from the Utah Hockey Club with J.J. Moser in the trade that sent defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to the NHL's newest market. Geekie had 99 points (43 goals, 56 assists) in 55 games in the WHL last season. If he doesn't make the final roster, look for Geekie, the No. 11 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, to get called up if he plays well in the AHL.

Most intriguing addition

Guentzel is the obvious answer here. He has to be the Lightning's most impactful addition and one of their best players. He'll have to find his chemistry, likely on the top line with Kucherov and Brayden Point, and his position on the power play. That's what training camp is for, but that will extend into the early part of the regular season before there is a comfort level and consistency. Another intriguing addition is Ryan McDonagh. Tampa Bay brought the veteran defenseman back, acquiring him in a trade with the Nashville Predators. McDonagh won the Stanley Cup with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021 and helped them reach the Cup Final in 2022 before playing the past two seasons with the Predators. He should reunite with Erik Cernak to make up the second defense pair. It's a familiar role for McDonagh, and it'll be interesting to see if he and Cernak can provide the same level of shutdown defense they played before McDonagh left for Nashville.

Biggest potential surprise

Cam Atkinson got a reboot to his NHL career last season, when he had 13 goals and 28 points in 70 games for the Philadelphia Flyers after missing the 2022-23 season because of back surgery. Atkinson, though, was rewarded by having the final season of his seven-year contract bought out by Philadelphia, making him an unrestricted free agent. He signed a one-year, $900,000 contract with the Lightning on July 2. He's 35 years old, but if Atkinson can stay healthy it's possible he could have another 20-goal season. He had seven in 10 seasons since he became an NHL regular in 2013-14 and scored 23 goals in 73 games with the Flyers in 2021-22.

Ready to contribute

Mitchell Chaffee is getting looks on the Lightning's second power-play unit and in a third-line role with Nicholas Paul and Atkinson. Chaffee is also among the forwards who are getting time on the penalty kill in camp. The 26-year-old played 30 games last season and had seven points (four goals, three assists). He appeared in all five Stanley Cup Playoff games against the Florida Panthers. He also had 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists) in 36 games with Syracuse in the AHL. Chaffee's 2022-23 season was cut short because of a knee injury in November when he was playing for Iowa in the AHL. He could become the Lightning's Swiss Army knife player with his versatility, allowing him to contribute in multiple ways. In addition, Emil Lilleberg has been getting a look as the third pair left-side defenseman. Lilleberg played 37 games last season and had five assists. The 23-year-old from Norway could make the top six ahead of Nick Perbix, who played 77 games last season.

Fantasy sleeper

Moser, D (undrafted on average in fantasy) -- He showed his sneaky fantasy potential with the Arizona Coyotes in 2022-23, when he had an NHL career-high 31 points (seven goals, 24 assists) and 11 power-play points playing mostly on the second man-advantage unit. After being moved to the Lightning as part of the Sergachev trade, Moser will bring exposure to Tampa Bay’s high-scoring forward talent (Kucherov, Point, Guentzel, Brandon Hagel) at even strength and also likely run the second power play after Sergachev’s departure. -- Pete Jensen

PROJECTED LINEUP

Jake Guentzel -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov

Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Cam Atkinson

Conor Sheary -- Nicholas Paul -- Mitchell Chaffee

Jesse Ylonen -- Logan Brown -- Zemgus Girgensons

Victor Hedman -- J.J. Moser

Ryan McDonagh -- Erik Cernak

Emil Lilleberg -- Darren Raddysh

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson