The center was hit in the hand by an Auston Matthews shot in the second period of a 4-1 loss at the Vancouver Canucks on March 4 and was projected to be out four weeks.
The regular season ends April 14.
"We've gotten pretty fortunate with that one," Dubas said, "just with the type of break that it was and the fact that he was able to play and play a lot and play well for us off the hop, and then the fact that he's probably scheduled to return before the playoffs. So, he's going to have time to ramp back up again."
O'Reilly resumed skating Wednesday. He worked with the Maple Leafs skills coach and departed the ice before practice started.
"Yeah he's been feeling good anytime I've seen him bouncing around the facility," Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said. "He's been feeling good since the surgery. Today was the scheduled day for him to get back on the ice so everything is progressing that way. I didn't follow up much but I don't think he was handling pucks or anything like that today. It was more just about getting the legs moving."
O'Reilly has missed three games and was placed on long-term injured reserve, meaning he will be out a minimum of 24 days and 10 games. He was acquired in a three-team trade with the St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild on Feb. 17.
"It's part of the risk that you take when you acquire somebody late in the year, but it could happen to any of the players on your team at any time," Dubas said. "I think you just have to accept that it's part of the risk when you're evaluating those things.
O'Reilly has five points (three goals, two assists) in eight games since joining the Maple Leafs, including a hat trick in a 6-3 win at the Buffalo Sabres on Feb. 21, and 24 points (15 goals, nine assists) in 48 games this season. He won the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy voted as MVP of the playoffs with the Blues in 2019.
Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said March 7 he expected O'Reilly back prior to the playoffs.
"Obviously when we get him, you get excited and you know what he can bring, so to lose him certainly it's tough and disappointing," Keefe said. "But we acquired him to be healthy ready to go for the playoffs and that will be the case. So, to that end, it's not bad in terms of what the bigger picture is, and especially with the nature of the injury, he won't miss much time actually on the ice and skating and, and all of that."
The Maple Leafs (40-18-9) are second in the Atlantic Division, three points ahead of the third-place Tampa Bay Lightning. They also acquired forwards Noel Acciari (Blues) and Sam Lafferty (Chicago Blackhawks), and defensemen Jake McCabe (Blackhawks), Luke Schenn (Canucks) and Erik Gustafsson (Washington Capitals) prior to the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline on March 3.
NHL.com columnist Nick Cotsonika and independent correspondent Dave McCarthy contributed to this report
