3 Keys: Lightning at Maple Leafs, Game 5 of Eastern 1st Round

(A3) Lightning at (A2) Maple Leafs
Eastern Conference First Round, Game 5
Toronto leads best-of-7 series 3-1
7 p.m. ET; TBS, CBC, SN, TVAS, BSSUN

TORONTO --The Toronto Maple Leafs can win their first Stanley Cup Playoff series in 19 years with a victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday.
The Maple Leafs previous series victory came against the Ottawa Senators in the 2004 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. This is the seventh consecutive time their current core of forwards Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and defenseman Morgan Rielly have reached the postseason and they've yet to be on a Maple Leafs team that has advanced.
Captain John Tavares said the team has to take a pragmatic approach of focusing on this one game and shielding out the outside noise.
"You are obviously aware of that, of the special fan base we have and the following we have, the history and tradition of the team and why everyone is so excited about this time of year," the forward said. "So I think, at least for myself, I think I try to get away from it for a bit and not put too much focus into it.
RELATED: [Complete Maple Leafs vs. Lightning series coverage]
"But I'm not stupid either. You know, people are trying to push the group on and we're thrilled about that. So we want to benefit from that and use that in the right way."
Eliminating the Lightning will be no easy task. Tampa Bay won 11 consecutive series until losing the 2022 Stanley Cup Final in six games to the champion Colorado Avalanche, a run that included winning the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021.
As such, the Lightning have a strong championship pedigree and are familiar with rebounding from having their backs against the wall. But coach Jon Cooper warned that it will take more to stay alive in this series than relying on past experiences.
"There's a fine line to sitting here and saying, 'Well, we've done it before, it's just naturally going to happen again,'" Cooper said. "We have to get the guys to remember the feeling and how hard those things are to accomplish.
"But the enemy has got a vote here. The Leafs are going to have a say in what goes on here too. So you have to make sure there's not the belief it's just a given and that there's actually a process to get to that."
Teams that take a 3-1 lead are 299-31 (90.6 percent) winning a best-of-7 series in the playoffs, including 3-1 last season.
Here are 3 keys for Game 5:

1. Traffic jam

The Maple Leafs have scored 19 goals against Andrei Vasilevskiy, arguably the best goaltender in the NHL. A chunk of their success has come from point shots that have either found their way through or have been tipped, results that have often come from the traffic clogging the front of the Tampa Bay net. Former Lightning assistant DerekLalonde, now coach of the Detroit Red Wings, said on Sportsnet on Monday that Vasilevskiy has trouble tracking shots from the point.
Toronto will continue to take shots from the point, and it's a good bet Maple Leafs goalie Ilya Samsonov will see a lot of Lightning forward Corey Perry in his face at the other end.

2. Fast start

Each team has opened the scoring twice through four games. Only once has the team that has scored first not gone on to win; that was in Game 4 when Lightning forward Alex Killorn put Tampa Bay up 1-0 at 9:57 of the first. Even then, the Maple Leafs needed a miracle comeback from a 4-1 deficit to win 5-4 in overtime.
If Toronto gets the first goal in Game 5, the fans inside Scotiabank Arena, knowing a series victory is in sight, will go bonkers. If Tampa Bay scores first, it will have the opposite effect; the crowd will become tense and fearful of the Maple Leafs team that hasn't won a playoff series in almost two decades.

3. The Perry factor

In the first two games, Perry had four points (two goals, two assists), seven penalty minutes and goaded the Maple Leafs into losing their discipline and taking needless minors. In Games 3 and 4, he was far less effective, with one assist and not causing the havoc in front of the opposing net like we're accustomed to seeing him do. Expect Perry, a southern Ontario kid, to revert to his old mischievous ways and feed off the boos of the Scotiabank Arena crowd.
"That's Corey Perry. Everyone hates Corey Perry until he's on your team," Lightning forward Patrick Maroon said. "That's why Corey Perry is the best at that. He's so good in these moments, he's done an amazing job, there's a reason he's played so many games. He's still got that rat in him and makes it difficult for other teams."

Lightning projected lineup

Steven Stamkos -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Ross Colton -- Nick Paul -- Tanner Jeannot
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Nick Perbix
Mikhail Sergachev -- Darren Raddysh
Ian Cole -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brian Elliott
Scratched: Haydn Fleury
Injured: Erik Cernak (upper body), Michael Eyssimont (upper body)

Maple Leafs projected lineup

Calle Jarnkrok -- Auston Matthews -- William Nylander
Matthew Knies -- John Tavares -- Mitchell Marner
Alex Kerfoot -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Noel Acciari
Zach Aston-Reese -- David Kampf -- Sam Lafferty
Jake McCabe -- TJ Brodie
Mark Giordano -- Justin Holl
Morgan Rielly -- Luke Schenn
Ilya Samsonov
Joseph Woll
Scratched: Michael Bunting, Erik Gustafsson, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins, Wayne Simmonds, Erik Kallgren
Injured: Jake Muzzin (neck), Victor Mete (upper body), Nicholas Robertson (shoulder), Carl Dahlstrom (shoulder), Matt Murray (head)

Status report

Cernak is expected to miss his fourth straight game since sustaining an upper body injury in Game 1. … The Maple Leafs will use the same 18 skaters as they did in Games 2, 3 and 4, meaning Bunting, who is eligible to return after serving a three-game suspension, will be scratched. … Knies will begin alongside Tavares and Marner after skating at left wing with O'Reilly and Acciari to start Game 4.