3 Keys: Maple Leafs at Lightning, Game 6 of Eastern 1st Round

(2A) MAPLE LEAFS at (3A) LIGHTNING
Eastern Conference First Round, Game 6
Toronto leads best-of-7 series 3-2
7 p.m. ET; TBS, CBC, SN TVAS, BSSUN

TAMPA --The Toronto Maple Leafs will once again attempt to win their first Stanley Cup Playoff series in 19 years when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Saturday.
Toronto had an opportunity in Game 5 on Thursday but lost 4-2 on home ice. The Maple Leafs are 0-10 in the Auston Matthews-Mitchell Marner-William Nylander-Morgan Reilly era with a chance to eliminate an opponent dating back to 2016.
They still lead the best-of-7 series 3-2. For forward Ryan O'Reilly, it's an opportunity that should be embraced.
"It's fun," he said. "This is what you play for. This is the time of year you should enjoy. These are the challenges you look forward to."
There is no wiggle room for the Lightning. It's win or go home again for a team that has won 11 of its past 12 playoff series, the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, and has been to the Stanley Cup Final three consecutive times.
"It's fun to be a part of this," coach Jon Cooper said. "And if you're in a competitive arena, I don't know, it's like a rush. This is why you do it, and when it's all said and done, you're out there, the crowd, and then you get laser-focused on the game. It's a privilege to be a part of, and if you can't have fun doing it, you shouldn't be doing it."
RELATED: [Complete Maple Leafs vs. Lightning series coverage]
Teams that lead 3-2 are 341-94 (.784) winning a best-of-7 series in the playoffs, including 7-4 last season. The Maple Leafs in that scenario are 19-8 (.704), 11-3 (.786) when starting at home. The Lightning are 4-5 (.444) when trailing 3-2 in a series, 2-4 (.333) when opening on the road.
Here are 3 keys for Game 6:

1. Lineup questions

Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe was elusive about his lineup, saying there would be game-time decisions. He refused to elaborate further, but there are signs as to what might happen.
First off, Michael Bunting is a candidate to play. The forward, who was suspended three games for an illegal hit to the head of Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak in Game 1, was a healthy scratch in Game 5, the first game he was eligible to return. With the Maple Leafs forecheck generally ineffective, Bunting's feistiness and physicality is something they could use, provided he doesn't cross the line again.
Another intriguing decision could revolve around defense, where Justin Holl has been on the ice for 14 goals-against, nine at 5-on-5. Don't be surprised if Timothy Liljegren replaces him and makes his first appearance in the series.

2. Home-ice disadvantage?

The home team has won one game in the series, a 7-2 Maple Leafs victory in Game 2.
The Lightning have lost both games at Amalie Arena in overtime, 4-3 in Game 3 and 5-4 in Game 4.
Neither coach can put their finger on exactly why road teams have dominated the series or the 2023 playoffs. With the last change for Game 6, Cooper said it's something that needs to be embraced, no matter how poorly home teams are doing these days.
"It's a privilege," Cooper said. "At times it can be an advantage and you can't take it for granted."

3. All for one ...

Keefe continues to notice a different vibe around the Maple Leafs from previous years, citing how upbeat the players were Friday despite losing Game 5. He also noted that the entire team was together Friday night for a meal instead of dividing up into individual cliques and doing their own thing.
Much of that can be attributed to defenseman Luke Schenn, the catalyst of team bonding since he was acquired in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks on Feb. 28. Whether that translates into a victory remains to be seen, but the unity surrounding the Maple Leafs seems to be its strongest in years.

Maple Leafs projected lineup

Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- William Nylander
Alex Kerfoot -- John Tavares -- Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Noel Acciari
Calle Jarnkrok -- David Kampf -- Sam Lafferty
Jake McCabe -- TJ Brodie
Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren
Morgan Rielly -- Luke Schenn
Ilya Samsonov
Joseph Woll
Scratched:Zach Aston-Reese, Erik Gustafsson, Justin Holl, Conor Timmins, Wayne Simmonds, Erik Kallgren
Injured:Jake Muzzin (neck), Victor Mete (upper body), Nicholas Robertson (shoulder), Carl Dahlstrom (shoulder), Matt Murray (head)
Lightning projected lineup
Steven Stamkos -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Ross Colton -- Nick Paul -- Michael Eyssimont
Patrick Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Nick Perbix
Mikhail Sergachev -- Darren Raddysh
Ian Cole -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brian Elliott
Scratched:Haydn Fleury, Tanner Jeannot
Injured:Erik Cernak (upper body)

Status report

Each team held an optional skate. ... Cernak is expected to miss his fifth straight game. ... The Lightning will likely use the same lineup from Game 5.