Maple Leafs win Draft Lottery, will have choice of McKenna or Stenberg at No. 1

SECAUCUS, N.J. -- The Toronto Maple Leafs have the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft after winning the NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday.

The San Jose Sharks won the No. 2 pick, and the Vancouver Canucks have the No. 3 pick.

The Maple Leafs, who at 8.5 percent had the fifth-best chance of winning the lottery, would pick No. 1 for the third time. They chose forward Auston Matthews first in the 2016 NHL Draft and forward Wendel Clark with the top selection in the 1985 NHL Draft.

The Maple Leafs are the third team in the past six lotteries to win despite not having the best NHL Draft Lottery odds, after the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2023 NHL Draft (third-best odds; forward Connor Bedard) and the New York Islanders in the 2025 NHL Draft (10th-best odds; defenseman Matthew Schaefer).

"You need some luck and we got it tonight," Toronto general manager John Chayka said. "It's a long road ahead, of course, and lots of work to do still, but when you get a first overall pick, it's a monumental type of opportunity. I think it's a really good draft, and a lot of good players. It's an honor to pick one overall."

The 2026 draft will be held at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The first round will be on June 26 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS) with rounds 2-7 on June 27 (10 a.m. ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN).

The lottery, which took place at the offices of NHL Network, set the order of selection for the first 16 picks for the teams that failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Only the top two picks were determined by the lottery; the remaining teams were slotted in by the order of their finish in the standings. Picks 17-32 will be determined by the results of the playoffs.

The Chicago Blackhawks won the No. 4 pick, and the New York Rangers have No. 5.

Toronto (32-36-14), which finished 28th in the NHL, could use the No. 1 pick to take left wing Gavin McKenna (5-foot-11, 170 pounds) of Penn State University. McKenna is No. 1 in NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters.

"I'm extremely happy for the Toronto Maple Leafs fanbase, of course," Toronto senior executive advisor of hockey operations Mats Sundin said. "It's great to get the first pick. Great night, great lottery."

Sundin said he hasn't had a chance to discuss the draft with Chayka after each was hired by the Maple Leafs on Sunday and introduced on Monday.

Chayka said he has tracked the progress of McKenna for a number of years.

"He’s an exciting player," Chayka said. "The skill level, the creativity, his puck ability and his shot release is all pretty special. It's a good package, so it will be good to get with the scouts and talk through it all."

McKenna finished tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) and was second with 1.46 points per game in 35 games this season. He was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year, a two-time National Rookie of the Month and four-time Big Ten Star of the Week, and the only unanimous choice on the Big Ten All-Freshman Team.

McKenna was second in the Western Hockey League last season with 129 points (41 goals, 88 assists) in 56 games with Medicine Hat and was named player of the year in the WHL and the Canadian Hockey League. This was the first season players from the CHL were eligible to play in the NCAA, and McKenna was the most prominent among the 175 players, according to College Hockey Inc., who made the jump this season.

If the Maple Leafs decide to select McKenna, he'd be the first men's ice hockey player from Penn State to be selected in the first round of the NHL Draft. Forward Charlie Cerrato, chosen by the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round (No. 49) last year, is the highest-drafted player in the program's history.

The Sharks will pick in the top four for the fourth straight year. They had a 5.5 percent chance of winning the second lottery draw for the No. 2 pick, which was the eighth-greatest likelihood among the remaining teams eligible.

"I wish there was a good story behind (getting a top four pick the past four years)," San Jose GM Mike Grier said. "We're just very fortunate and lucky that things have gone our way and we've been able to pick at the top of the draft."

The Sharks selected forward Will Smith with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, forward Macklin Celebrini with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and forward Michael Misa with the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft.

"I'm shocked, really," Grier said. "You never know what's going to happen and how the balls are going to bounce. It's kind of happy and excited. It's a good day for the organization. I'm sure the scouts have been doing the work. There's lots of options there. There's centers, there's defense, there's wingers ... so to have the opportunity to add another very talented player to our young core is very exciting."

Grier was asked if he'd consider trading down in the draft.

"I'm always open to listening to what's out there," Grier said. "If people have ideas or thoughts, I'll listen. We'll kind of go from there."

Beyond McKenna, another option with the top pick could be forward Ivar Stenberg (5-11, 183), No. 1 in NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of International skaters, who had 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games for Frolunda of the Swedish Hockey League. It was the most points in a season by an 18-year-old SHL player since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99.

"(McKenna and Stenberg) are very talented, gifted players," Grier said. "I've had a chance to watch them both quite a bit over the last two years -- dynamic with the puck. They're both, I think, shoot-pass threats, which is not always the case with young players, but there's playmaking and vision on both of them. 

"They think the game well and at a high level and are a threat to score or create scoring chances every shift. They are very talented players, they're exciting."

After McKenna and Stenberg, there are five defensemen, each projected as a franchise-defining NHL player along the blue line down the road.

In that mix are Chase Reid of Sault Ste. Marie of the Ontario Hockey League, Carson Carels of Prince George of the WHL, Keaton Verhoeff of the University of North Dakota, Daxon Rudolph of Prince Albert (WHL), and Alberts Smits of Munchen of Deutsche Eishockey Liga, the top professional league in Germany.

"I think it's a strong draft," Sundin said. "The first round is really strong and Ivar has had a strong season, from the World Junior Championship and I'll follow him probably in the World Championship this year in a couple weeks.

"It's going to be interesting and a lot of looking at these different players knowing we have the first overall pick."

Among OHL defensemen, Reid (6-2, 195) ranked 12th with 48 points (18 goals, 30 assists) and 13th with 20 power-play points (eight goals, 12 assists) in 45 regular-season games. Carels (6-2, 198) ranked fourth among WHL defensemen with 73 points (20 goals, 53 assists) and second with 32 power-play points (five goals, 27 assists) in 58 regular-season games.

Verhoeff (6-3, 208), the second of five NCAA players among the top 32 skaters in Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters, finished with 20 points (six goals, 14 assists) and was third on his team with 43 blocked shots in 36 games as a freshman at North Dakota. Rudolph (6-2, 206), who may have the highest ceiling of any defenseman in this draft class, was third among WHL defensemen with 78 points (28 goals, 50 assists) and first with 35 power-play points (13 goals, 22 assists) in 68 regular-season games.

At 18, Smits (6-3, 205) was the youngest player at the 2026 Winter Olympics, where he had two assists in four games for Team Latvia while averaging 18:44 of ice time per game. He had 13 points (six goals, seven assists) in 38 games with Jukurit in Liiga before he was loaned to Munchen on Feb. 25. He had one assist in five regular season DEL games and has six points (two goals, four assists) in 11 playoff games.

NHL.com independent correspondents Dave McCarthy and Max Miller contributed to this report