State Your Case: Rangers or Hurricanes in Eastern 2nd round of playoffs

The New York Rangers will face the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Second Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Rangers, the top seed in the East and the winner of the Presidents' Trophy as the team with the most points during the regular season, swept the Washington Capitals in the first round.

The Hurricanes, who finished three points behind the Rangers in the Metropolitan Division, defeated the New York Islanders in five games in the first round.

Game 1 of the best-of-7 series will be at Madison Square Garden on Sunday (4 p.m. ET; ESPN).

The Rangers were 2-1-0 against the Hurricanes during the regular season. New York won 2-1 on Nov. 2 and 1-0 on March 12, and lost 6-1 on Jan. 2.

New York and Carolina have faced each other twice in the playoffs; the Rangers defeated the Hurricanes in seven games in the second round in 2022, and the Hurricanes swept the Rangers in the best-of-5 Stanley Cup Qualifiers in 2020.

Who will win this series? That's the question before senior writer Dan Rosen and senior director of editorial Shawn P. Roarke in this playoff edition of State Your Case.

Roarke: The margins are super slim here. Across an 82-game season, these two teams were separated by three points. Each has game-breaking forwards, elite defensemen and a world-class starting goalie. Oh yeah, the coaches -- Peter Laviolette for the Rangers and Rod Brind'Amour for the Hurricanes -- aren't bad, either. So, what's going to be the difference between these two behemoths? Like it usually is at this time of the season, it'll be the little things. It is will over skill when the calendar turns to May and beyond, and there are few teams that do the little things as well as the Hurricanes. They are relentless on the forecheck, aggressive on the penalty kill, opportunistic on the power play and punishing in their own end. Even their stars are willing to put their work boots on to get the job done. The Hurricanes roll their four lines with minimal regard to matchups and count on their depth and discipline to be the difference. It was in the first round and it will be again this time.

Rosen: Shawn is right about a lot. I can't disagree with anything he said about the margins being slim and the similarities between these two teams. I'll add special teams to that, too. The Hurricanes were second on the power play and first on the penalty kill during the regular season and the Rangers third in each. And I'll agree with that Carolina does the little things well too. But so does New York, which has more skill, which will matter in this series because maybe for the first time since Rod Brind'Amour took over as Hurricanes coach in 2018-19, these two teams are equal in will. They weren't two years ago and still the Rangers won the series in seven games, their skill winning out in a 6-2 Game 7 win. In this series, they have the most skilled player in forward Artemi Panarin and the most skilled defenseman in Adam Fox. They may have the most skilled forward line with Vincent Trocheck centering Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere. Each teams is deep. Each is coached well. Each has excellent goaltending. Each has elite special teams. The Rangers have more skill. It will make the difference.

Roarke: Jeez, I guess I should quit. Rosen is too good, like the Rangers he describes. Forget that. I never quit. Neither do these Hurricanes. Nothing rattles them. With the team Dan described, you'd think they would be world-beaters, but they were three points better than Carolina in the regular season and didn’t pull away until the final week of the season. In the three head-to-head matchups in the regular season, the Rangers scored four goals. Big whoop! They scored 278 goals during the regular season, but only 167 came during 5-on-5 play. They had 15 goals in four games during the first round; just eight during 5-on-5. All the Hurricanes want to do is play 5-on-5. Not only is their penalty kill the best in the business but Carolina doesn’t rely on it. They allowed 146 goals during 5-on-5 play, sixth fewest during the regular season. In the postseason, the Hurricanes have taken 11 penalties in five games and have been short an average of 3:38 per game. Nobody has been shorthanded more than the Rangers (7:18). New York will play this series mostly at 5-on-5, and that doesn't favor Dan’s overly generous estimation of the talent disparity that might exist.

Rosen: Here's the thing, Shawn -- the Rangers are not going to be fearful of the Hurricanes power play. In fact, Carolina might want to worry about New York's penalty kill, because it can be explosive offensively too. That's another way the Rangers are going to find a way to beat the Hurricanes. They'll kill the penalties, but they'll be dangerous offensively when they do with Trocheck, center Mika Zibanejad and forward Chris Kreider on the kill. New York scored two short-handed goals against Washington, and more opportunities off 2-on-1s that didn't connect. But the other aspect of this, and it is maybe the most important, is the Rangers do have the edge in goaltending. Igor Shesterkin is money in the bank. He has been since taking a mini-break after participating in All-Star Weekend. He allowed seven goals on 101 shots in the first round against the Capitals, a .931 save percentage. Frederik Andersen was good against the Islanders, but he allowed three goals three times. If he gives up three against the Rangers, against Shesterkin, there's a better chance of losing than winning. Andersen is also prone to injury; he didn't play in the second round against the Rangers two years ago because of that. Shesterkin is stable and reliable. I'll take him. I'll take the Rangers.