NHL.com staff writer Mike Zeisberger has been covering the NHL regularly since 1999. Each Monday he will use his extensive networks of hockey contacts to write his weekly notes column, “Zizing 'Em Up.”
SAN JOSE -- It’s that time again.
Whether you buy into the notion or not, there’s been an unwritten credo in the hockey world for the past couple of decades that suggests the NHL standings at Thanksgiving in the United States provide a legitimate indication of who’ll qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs five months later.
A year ago, we asked the question to broadcasters Kenny Albert and Chris Cuthbert: With the parity that dominates the modern-day NHL, does that theory still hold true?
At that time, the Edmonton Oilers were out of a playoff spot and had just made a coaching change, bringing in Kris Knoblauch. Both Albert and Cuthbert felt the Oilers would rebound and buck the Thanksgiving odds to qualify for the postseason.
They were right, and then some. Indeed, Edmonton soared all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, where it fell one goal short in Game 7 against the Florida Panthers.
Fast-forward 12 months. With Thanksgiving approaching this Thursday and the NHL season having recently reached the quarter mark, it’s time to pick the brains of Albert and Cuthbert once again.
As renowned national broadcasters, these two have seen the landscape of the League firsthand. Albert is the top hockey play-by-play man for TNT; Cuthbert is the voice of "Hockey Night of Canada."
Here’s how each feels about various topics, including early-season surprises and disappointments, what the top story to date in the NHL has been, and what they’re looking forward to seeing over the final three quarters of the season.
Do you feel the standings at U.S. Thanksgiving are as much a legitimate foreshadow of playoff qualifiers down the road as they once were?
Cuthbert: “I’m mixed on this. I guess the stats tell you it is, but I keep coming back to St Louis in 2018-19 when the Blues could be in last place in January and go on to win the Cup. Then there’s the story of the Oilers last year. I don't think you can write teams off. When you win 16 in a row starting around that period of time like the Oilers did last year, you’re probably in pretty good shape. But it is one of those evaluation points that we do. Thanksgiving means you kind of can start to make an evaluation on most teams, where they are and where they might be going.”
Albert: “With what the Oilers did last year, I feel like there’s room for two or three teams to go on some kind of a run. I do think Thanksgiving gives somewhat of indication, because it's a quarter of the way through. But you know, like we saw with the Oilers last year, I certainly wouldn't count a team out that gets off to the type of start that they’d hoped would be better.”
What has been the top story of the young season for you so far?
Albert: “I think some of the individual performances that we've seen so far -- Alex Ovechkin and his run of 15 goals in 18 games at his age, he has to be right up there. Unfortunately, now he’s injured. But I think you have to put that right at the top. When you look at some of the, well, not the newest players in the League because they've both been around for five or six years, but what Kirill Kaprizov of Minnesota and [Martin] Necas of Carolina have been doing to lead their teams is impressive. But I think you have to put Ovechkin at the top of the list. I think the Winnipeg Jets getting off to a 17-4 start, those would probably be the top two.”
Cuthbert: “For me, it’s Winnipeg. Even those who were optimistic about their chances this season could not have predicted this.”
Biggest surprise of the young season to date?
Cuthbert: “Again, the Jets. I mean, everybody on that team seems to be playing well. And if there's a secondary surprise it’s that they haven't left the rest of the Central Division in the dust. I mean, for Minnesota to stay within striking distance, I think, that’s almost as surprising and pretty impressive. So, those two teams. And I'll carry the Canadian colors a little bit more and say I think Calgary has been a very pleasant surprise in the first 20 games.”
Albert: “There are a number of teams I think you could put in that category. I think when you look at what the Capitals have done as a team and the start that they've gotten off to, they certainly are part of that. Obviously, Winnipeg, as I mentioned earlier. And I think you have to look at teams like Minnesota and Calgary. The Flames have done it without a huge scoring output. I know they had a couple of big games early, but they've gone on a long stretch without scoring more than three goals, yet they've been able to win a lot of those games. So, I would say those are probably the four biggest surprise teams to this point -- Capitals, Jets, Wild and Flames.”
Biggest disappointment?
Albert: “I would say the Oilers are disappointed with the 10-9-2 start they got off to, but they're still over .500. I certainly wouldn't count them out, and I'm sure they'll be there come playoff time. You look at the run they went on last year -- obviously they were disappointed at the end to lose Game 7 of the Final to the Panthers, but I still put the Oilers right up there amongst the favorites of the Western Conference despite what we've seen so far. Nashville, it’s certainly not the start that they would have liked either, but again, there's still three quarters of the season left, so I certainly wouldn't count out big pushes for those teams.”
Cuthbert: “I think probably Nashville's got to be, because I think a lot of us thought they won the offseason. But it certainly has not translated yet. They've dug themselves a little bit of a hole, and they're one of those teams that hopes that USA Thanksgiving isn’t a major calling card. I might even add Edmonton to that list. I didn't think they'd go through the issues that they've gone through this year. It's certainly not a fatal blow in the first whatever number of games this season, but I I think a majority of people north of the border looked at Edmonton as the Stanley Cup favorite. Maybe a lot of those people haven't changed their mind, but they are just kind of going along at .500 and don't look like a team ready to go on a 16-win run again.”
Among the teams not in a postseason spot at Thanksgiving approaches, which one do you expect to make a run?
Cuthbert: Well, I think Vancouver will be better. They're not in a playoff spot right now. But you have to consider that they've been without a 40-goal scorer in Brock Boeser, they're without a 100-point guy right now in J.T. Miller and they're without a Vezina Trophy candidate in Thatcher Demko. I know (coach) Rick Tocchet used the expression this week that the cavalry's coming soon, so I could see them making a run. But you know, right now, I don't see any other team outside the top 16 that is going to make a run. Is Boston going to turn around and make a run? You know, they're probably another team in the disappointing category. Other than Nashville, I’d say Boston would be No. 2 on the disappointment list.”
Albert: “’I'll say the Canucks, a team that went to Game 7 in the second round last year, and they played less games. You know, right now, they're on the outside looking in, but they played two or three less games than many of the other teams, and they have some key players obviously out of their lineup. So, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we see the Canucks having a terrific second half and doing some damage in the postseason.”
Who are your early Hart Trophy front-runners as the NHL’s MVP?
Albert: “I think you have to put Cale Makar right up there. The Avalanche were missing so many key players at the start of the season, and they lost those first four games. But they hung in there, and now they're headed in the right direction. I think you probably have to put Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck right up there as a Hart Trophy candidate. Probably Kaprizov too. Ovechkin, to this point, would be too, although he’s hurt and going to be out a while.”
Cuthbert: “I think it's right now it’s Kaprizov. I really do believe that it's either him or Nathan MacKinnon of the Avs, and MacKinnon got a little bump last year because he hadn't won it before, and now he's the defending guy. MacKinnon’s got a chance to win his first Art Ross as the League’s top points-scorer as well. So, those two guys, I think, are front-and-center right now, and everybody else is playing catch-up.”
Finally, what storyline most tweaks your interest moving forward this season?
Cuthbert: “You know what? I probably should have listed the Capitals among the great surprises. The Ovechkin pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal record was probably No. 1 on the list until he got injured. He put up so many goals so quickly, 15 in 18 games, that even though he's going to miss six weeks, I think you know, we'll start up that watch again in January. But the biggest story has got to be the 4 Nations Face-Off coming up in February and how exciting that's going to be, and how overdue watching best-on-best has been. Even though it's a limited four-country best-on-best, it should be special.”
Albert: “If I can go outside the box a little bit, I think the 4 Nations Face-Off is really going to be outstanding. Our TNT crew is going to have the opportunity to call two of those games in Boston, and I know how excited the players are for this tournament. They haven’t had the opportunity to go to the last couple of Olympics, so to represent their country is always really high on their lists. And we'll find out in about 10 days, I guess, what the what the rest of the rosters are. So, even though that's not necessarily an NHL storyline, it's all NHL players, so I think it's going to be really intriguing to see those rosters, and then the anticipation as we get closer to the games should just be so much fun. And, obviously, it’s a build up to the 2026 Winter Olympics.”
