By the Numbers: Examining Juuse Saros' Candidacy for the Vezina Trophy

With just two regular-season games remaining, Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saros has found himself entrenched in the upper echelon of NHL goaltenders again in 2022-23. After being named a Vezina Trophy finalist last season and earning the 11th-most votes for the Hart Trophy in 2020-21, the 27-year-old is arguably the primary reason why Nashville remained in the hunt for a playoff spot until Tuesday night despite a barrage of injuries and a young, inexperienced lineup in front of him.
In this story, NashvillePredators.com will take a look at why Saros deserves a seat at the Vezina Trophy finalist table this summer at the 2023 NHL Awards, hosted right here in Music City.

Keeping It Traditional

Let's begin with some traditional stats. After appearing in a League-high 67 games last season, Saros has earned the call from Head Coach John Hynes a total of 63 times in 2022-23, one behind Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck for the most in the NHL. Additionally, his 3,747:15 of ice time and 62 starts are both the second-most among his peers.
Among NHL goaltenders with at least 45 appearances - the minimum reached by all Vezina winners in the last five seasons outside of the 56-game 2020-21 campaign - Saros holds strong in several categories. He sits tied for fourth in save percentage at .919 and is the only goalie within the Top 10 playing on a team outside of a playoff spot. He is also eighth in wins with 32, helping him become the third goaltender in Predators history to record consecutive 30-win seasons, joining Pekka Rinne and Tomas Vokoun.
Saros leads the NHL in two other categories - saves and shots against. His League-leading 1,907 saves are 100 more than second-place Hellebuyck (1,807), and he's seen 111 more shots than the next-closest goaltender. On the penalty kill, Saros paces the NHL in saves with 297 and owns an .895 save percentage, the second-highest in the League.
Historically, these traditional numbers typically paint a good picture of the goalies who end up being Vezina Trophy finalists at the end of the season. However, with modern hockey analytics continuing to be integrated into the conversation, we can now break down Saros' numbers even further to show just how well he's done this season compared to his competition.

Breaking It Down Further

Using a variety of analytics sites, the case for Saros as a Vezina Trophy finalist becomes even stronger.
Take MoneyPuck.com, for example. Saros currently leads all NHL goaltenders, including consensus Vezina candidates in Linus Ullmark (Boston) and Ilya Sorokin (NY Islanders), in goals saved above expected (GSAE), which measures a goaltender's expected goals against minus the actual number of goals allowed. Saros' GSAE of 46.7 (all situations) is not only the highest in the NHL this season but is the highest among all League goaltenders since the site began tracking the category in 2008-09. When shorthanded, Saros owns a GSAE of 9.0, the second-highest in the NHL since the start of the 2017-18 season, trailing only Igor Shesterkin's 9.7 mark in 2021-22, his Vezina Trophy-winning campaign. MoneyPuck.com also has the Predators goaltender leading the NHL in wins above replacement (7.79); he is second in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (.748) and goals-against average better than expected (0.75).
Evolving Hockey tells a similar story, this time using its own version of goals saved above expected called GSAx. Saros owns a 45.9 mark in the category in all situations, the second-best among NHL goaltenders in the last 13 seasons.
Sportlogiq also holds Saros in high regard. The hockey data collection and advanced analytics site lists the Forssa, Finland, native with a League-leading 10 steals this season, awarded when a goaltender's GSAx is higher than a team's final goal differential in a game; he's stolen 16.1 percent of his starts, the-third highest in the league and above both Ullmark and Sorokin. When looking at quality starts, which is given when a goaltender allows fewer goals than expected during a game, Saros has chalked up 41 of them - the most in the NHL - and his percentage of such games sits at 66.1 percent, the third-highest. Additionally, Saros has come up big when facing shots from the most dangerous areas in his own zone, sitting first in the NHL in slot saves (788) and second in inner slot saves (343). Those numbers speak volumes when you consider he leads the NHL in slot shots faced (929) and is second in inner slot shots faced (431).
Natural Stat Trick shows Saros has made 497 high-danger saves this season, the second-most among League netminders.

Adding Context

When considering Saros' candidacy for the Vezina Trophy, it's important to put his season into context.
The netminder is a key reason why Nashville is tied for eighth in the NHL in points since Feb. 21 with 32 (15-9-2), helping the team remain as close to one point out of a playoff spot down the stretch. Additionally, the team in front of Saros has racked up 161 man-games lost due to injury since Feb. 13, competing without impact players such as Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene and important defensemen like Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh and Alexandre Carrier for all or various parts of that stretch. Skating with as many as nine players who have seen time in Milwaukee (AHL) this season in front of him - as he did on Saturday at Winnipeg - Saros has stood tall despite facing the most shots and high-danger shots among all NHL goaltenders since mid-February. He's also seen the third-most shots and high-danger shots against on the penalty kill in that time span, per Natural Stat Trick.
When the game is close, that's when Saros is at his best. Out of Nashville's 23 games won by one goal -the third-most in the NHL - the goaltender has earned the victory in 17 of them. In those games, Saros has posted a .936 save percentage and 2.13 goals-against average while allowing just one goal nine times.
Saros has also turned in several stellar single-game performances this season. He's been in goal for Nashville's wins over division leaders such as Boston and Carolina and has earned victories over other playoff teams like Edmonton, Los Angeles, Minnesota, New Jersey, the New York Rangers and Seattle. But of those, none stood up to Saros' outing on Jan. 5 at Carolina, a 5-3 win for the Predators that saw him make 64 saves, tied for the third-most in a game in NHL history. He followed that up with a 38-save shutout on Jan. 9 at Ottawa; his 102 saves were tied for the seventh-most in two consecutive starts by the same goaltender and were the most since Byron Dafoe in 1995-96 (102).
Add it all up, and not only is it one of the finest seasons by a goaltender in Predators history, but worthy of Saros seeing his name as a Vezina Trophy finalist for the second consecutive campaign.