Fantasy hockey top 10 breakout candidates
Caufield, Reichel, Schmid can take big step in 2023-24; season preview podcasts
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NOTES: Breakout candidates (23-and-under skaters; 26-and-under goalies; non-rookies) have already had some success in the NHL but can reach the upper echelon of their positions and far exceed their fantasy average draft position this season. Players excluded from the below list who could have breakout seasons include this season's rookie class (e.g. Connor Bedard, Devon Levi, Luke Hughes, Logan Cooley), last season's Calder Trophy finalists (Matty Beniers, Owen Power, Stuart Skinner), the top two picks in recent NHL Drafts (e.g. Juraj Slafkovsky, Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko) and young players who had full-fledged breakouts last postseason (e.g. Evan Bouchard). These picks are a collaborative effort by Pete Jensen and Anna Dua.
FORWARD
Cole Caufield, MTL -- Caufield was limited to 46 games for the Montreal Canadiens last season before having shoulder surgery but was tied for the 11th most goals in the NHL (26 in 46 games; 82-game pace: 46 goals) prior to his injury. He has proven chemistry with fellow young forward Nick Suzuki and could also benefit from long-term exposure to wings Juraj Slafkovsky and/or Rafael Harvey-Pinard.
Mason McTavish, ANA -- McTavish ranked third among NHL rookies in points (43; 17 goals, 26 assists) and power-play points (14) last season and led his class in shots on goal (161). The No. 3 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft has breakout potential if he plays on a line with veteran wing Alex Killorn, who signed with the Anaheim Ducks this offseason.
JJ Peterka, BUF -- Peterka only scratched the surface with 32 points (12 goals, 20 assists) in 77 games in a secondary role for the Buffalo Sabres last season and is part of their potent young forward core that includes Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt and prospects Matt Savoie, Jiri Kulich and Zach Benson. He could also follow in the footsteps of elite NHL players born in Germany (e.g. Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle, Moritz Seider).
Lukas Reichel, CHI -- Reichel, the No. 17 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, was third on the Chicago Blackhawks in points per game (0.65; 15 in 23 games) last season behind forwards Patrick Kane (0.83) and Max Domi (0.82), who no longer play for the team. Reichel is likely to have a top-six, first power-play role with potential exposure to high-scoring skaters in rookie center Connor Bedard, left wing Taylor Hall and defenseman Seth Jones.
Matias Maccelli, ARI -- Maccelli led NHL rookies in assists (38) and points per game (0.77; minimum 10 games) in 64 games last season and was also second on the Coyotes in power-play points (13) despite playing mostly on the second unit. He could have a much higher fantasy ceiling in the years ahead on a line with elite wing Clayton Keller and/or promising rookie Logan Cooley (No. 3 pick in 2022 NHL Draft).
Kent Johnson, CBJ -- Johnson ranked fifth among NHL rookies in points (40 in 79 games) last season despite only averaging 14:31 per game. He has a chance to earn a bigger role this season and potentially play on a line with Adam Fantilli (fellow University of Michigan product; led NCAA in points last season) if the latter makes the jump to the NHL this season.
DEFENSEMAN
Jake Sanderson, OTT -- The Ottawa Senators defenseman signed an eight-year contract with them this offseason after finishing second among NHL rookies at the position in assists (28), points (32) and power-play points (17) last season. He played mostly on the second power-play unit and will compete with fellow defensemen Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun for exposure to valuable fantasy forwards Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Vladimir Tarasenko, Claude Giroux and Josh Norris.
Bowen Byram, COL -- Byram was limited to 42 games last season but had 24 points (10 goals, 14 assists) and still has untapped potential for the Colorado Avalanche, who ranked eighth in the NHL in shots on goal per game (33.3) and had the sixth best power-play percentage (24.5) last season. Byram, who won the Stanley Cup with Colorado in 2022, will likely see time on the second power-play unit with exposure to elite defenseman Devon Toews and sleeper offseason additions in forwards Ryan Johansen, Jonathan Drouin and Ross Colton.
GOALIE
Pyotr Kochetkov, CAR -- Kochetkov was 12-7-5 with a .909 save percentage in 23 games for the Carolina Hurricanes last regular season and had four shutouts (tied for fifth in NHL). The Hurricanes allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the NHL last season (26.0), and Kochetkov should be considered a top five fantasy goalie option in keeper and dynasty leagues -- even after Carolina re-signed veterans Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta.
Akira Schmid, NJD -- Schmid had a .922 save percentage in 18 games for the New Jersey Devils last regular season and impressed in the postseason with a .921 save percentage in nine games and two shutouts in the series against the New York Rangers in the first round. Schmid could continue to cut into Vitek Vanecek's workload and emerge as the starter for the Devils, who allowed the fifth fewest shots on goal per game (28.2) in the NHL last season.
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Other fantasy breakout candidates to consider: Wyatt Johnston, DAL; Kirill Marchenko, CBJ; William Eklund, SJS; Seth Jarvis, CAR; Shane Pinto, OTT; Alexander Holtz, NJD; Arthur Kaliyev, LAK
